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50NL JTs on JT8 board. Too thin or good? 50NL JTs on JT8 board. Too thin or good?

07-15-2018 , 07:23 AM
Folds to HJ who is a solid player with a 260BB stack and makes it $1. CO player with about the same stack size calls. I'm in the SB with JT. I call. BB player folds.

Flop($3.31) T J 8
I check
HJ bets $2.50
CO folds
I raise to $8.21
HJ calls

Turn($18.82) T J 8 5
I bet $14.05
HJ calls

River($45.36) T J 8 5 6
I ship all-in for $56.93

Too thin or is this good?
50NL JTs on JT8 board. Too thin or good? Quote
07-15-2018 , 04:52 PM
The river shove is definitely thin to me against a solid player. I mean, what is your overbetting range in this spot ? Do you have some bluffs ? Do you overbet often on brick rivers ? You are far from the top of your range. When you raise the flop, you have all 2 pairs, all sets, straights and some random 9s who have now an OESD.

You need also to estimate the opponent's calling range. When he calls the flop raise, I assume he has a made hand, because your sizing is huge. Here is my estimation: overpairs (QQ+, so 3x6 combos = 18 combos), some 2 pairs (but fewer than you, maybe JT, T8s), some straights (Q9s and 97s), and of course all sets (1 combo of JJ, 1 combo of TT and 3 combos of 88). So mostly overpairs.

When he calls the turn, he probably has the same range. If he called the flop with an OESD, your sizing will make him fold them on the turn.

On the river, do you think he calls vs this sizing with his overpairs ? If yes, well played. If not, you are value cutting yourself. Remember, he has virtually no missed draws. You beat all overpairs and T8. But that's all.
50NL JTs on JT8 board. Too thin or good? Quote

      
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