PokerStars - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $60.43 (VPIP: 19.48, PFR: 15.71, 3Bet Preflop: 7.18, Hands: 506)
UTG+1: $90.17 (VPIP: 20.41, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 5.95, Hands: 197)
MP: $43.00 (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 17.86, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 28)
MP+1: $50.00 (VPIP: 17.01, PFR: 12.71, 3Bet Preflop: 4.47, Hands: 1,442)
Hero (CO): $74.11
BTN: $50.00 (VPIP: 23.26, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 45)
SB: $39.50 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
BB: $50.00 (VPIP: 9.38, PFR: 3.13, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has J J

UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.50, fold, fold, BB calls $1.00

Villain has an 8% opening range from UTG and folds to 60% of 3bets. I don't think that 3betting accomplishes much apart from folding out worse hands (with the possible exception of AK) so I choose to use my position to flat with JJ

Flop: ($4.75, 3 players) A J Q
BB checks, UTG bets $3.01, Hero calls $3.01, fold

Similar logic to pre-flop, except that now my hand is a lot more invunerable. My plan is to let villain keep firing since he's likely to have a lot of 1 and two pair hands here.

Turn: ($10.77, 2 players) 6
UTG bets $6.82, Hero calls $6.82

I considered raising here as well but decided to take the chance that I'd earn more from a river bet then I would be raising and getting him to fold.

River: ($24.41, 2 players) 3
UTG bets $49.10 and is all-in,

This was....unexpected. AA and QQ fit his play perfectly. Even with the over-bet I still only need 40% equity to make the call +EV Do I even beat anything anymore?

You're in a league beyond me, Sprout, but I have to say slowplaying never got me anywhere. Unless you know more about this particular V of course.

Thanks for the response. Yeah I guess they way that I looked at in in play was that the flop was great for me but I wasn't sure if I could get called by much worse if I stuck in a raise* and I felt like there wasn't too many run-outs that I needed to worry about. I wouldn't have been too happy to see a 10 come out but that was the risk I took.

*If I raise here it looks like 2Pair+ all day given the board texture. I'll get looked up by AQ but I'm not even sure if AK continues.

What I'm thinking is that calling flop and turn on such rich board texture might be inducing a river bluff, maybe a busted straight draw (KQs or even TT). Just curious, do you ever flat AK pre IP?

At lower stakes I don't see much raising with KTs from UTG full-ring. Pot odds are about 1.5:1 so if AA and QQ beat you that's 6 combos and you'd need 4 that you beat to call just to break even. 66 might take this line and that's 3 already. Do you think this V would barrel and then overbet the river for value with AQ or AJ against you?

If you think villain would take the same line with most 2p hands and some one pair hands from his 8% utg opening range (AA, QQ, AJs, KQs, KTs, QJs, AQo, AJo and KQo), than it´s definitely a call. Idk how does the avg 50nl reg play, so just a guess.

Wow, do people consider folding bottom set here?? Full ring must be nittier than I thought.

For what it is worth I just realised that the HUD stats for the villain are inaccurate in the OP above. His actual full ring stats are 18/14 with a 6% 3bet not 19.5/16/7 as stated above.
I just realised that PT4 doesn't filter by number of players at the table when you copy the hand history over from the Replayer. Those looser numbers include all of the hands that I played with him when there were less than 7 players at the table. However, in-game on my HUD I filter to show only the hands that I have with the villain that were played with 7+ players when we're sitting with 7 or more players at the table.

Do you have any hands that have gone to showdown when he was UTG, or maybe UTG+1. You can try to build his EP range that way, it may actually be a little more reliable than using only the numbers, especially when you don´t have that many hands on him.

Villain is plowing money into the pot although KT isn't in his range, yet it certainly is in your range. I'm thinking AA or QQ almost certainly, as I don't imagine he would overbet the river with any other hand.
Maybe he has triple barrel or river stats that might suggest otherwise, if not, then this certainly could be a pro spot to make a huge lay down because, logically, bottom set is not looking to good on the river.
I really don't think villain is trying to maximize value with AQ here. If he did have AQ I would expect that he continues betting close to 2/3 pot.
After you called two big bets on the flop and turn, villain should be concerned that you have JJ QQ and KT in your range that all could call a big river bet.

seems like easy call unless hes passive nit.

The thing that keeps coming to mind here is that JJ is in at the top of your range, should you be folding the top of your range ? I don't know about 66, are many people cbetting 66 here? There are 9 combos of AQ that I don't think we can right off, as well the one combo of JJ remaining. What sort of conclusion have you come to Brussels?

1 combo of JJ? (:

hahahaha

where is the face palm emoji when you want one

I like your line. No need to raise flop or turn imo.

I would not say this is an easy call. For me, it makes sense to take this line with AA and QQ. Not sure AQ would bet so big OTR (only if he thinks you're a fish/calling station). Sale for 66. However, he probably knows he has a range advantage on this board (only KTs crushes villains range, the rest are mainly 2pairs/the occasionnal JJ, QQ and AK). So I could see a thinking player shoving the river with some bluffs for balance. But which ones ? KK and AsKs ? I'm personnaly making those huge bluffs from time to time, but not every time I have those hands. So the decision is very player dependent. All in all, I think neither of those décisions is a huge mistake. Just my 2cents. I don't know how the villains play at those stakes, I only play 25nl and live 2/2 at best.

I think by the river your hand strength is pretty unrepresented. With V having all flopped 2 pairs in their range, we’re actually potentially ahead of part of their value range.

We have 9 combos we’re ahead of, 6 that crush us. I’d imagine it’s not inconceivable that V can have KTs here sometimes too. Depending how V’s rfi range is made up, or if theirs any in game reasons to loosen up. But I’d weight these a bit.

If we require 40% breakeven then I think this is a call. A high variance call. I can understand a gut feeling in game fold though.




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IDK. What do you think villain thinks you have? If you think he thinks you will 3bet JJ-QQ pre it’s a snap call. If you think he thinks you are capable of flatting JJ-QQ versus a tight UTG range it’s likely a fold..

This is kinda why I like 3 betting pre flop, we will find out if he has QQ-AA a lot sooner than the river..

What are villains post flop stats like? Barrel tendencies, river aggression etc..

I think that when playing against skilled V's who are paying attention, we have to be able to play the same hand different ways. Slowplaying is definitely one of those ways. But then we have to recognize if we choose to take this line our perceived range diverges from the other lines. On this board, by the river I think we're in an uncomfortable situation but we have to call (absent other info) and not be happy about it.

Good point though about whether V has seen you ever flat JJ pre before, because then I'd reconsider calling.

Flop Cbet: 20/30
Turn Cbet: 10/12
River Cbet: 1/1

Wow, pretty agressive. Are those standard stats for 50nl ? I think we can indeed assume he's 3barreling for value AQ/AJ/QJ. Maybe even a bluff or two. I would lean towards a call.

@Brussels your villain right?

Nope

very easy fold, villain inst valuebetting aq and isnt bluffing ever. he is so bad that he split his river range in 2, letting you know when you're beat with your set.

even in a 6-max table this is a fold vs that guy

He is overbetting with no range advantage into top 2 or better, fold