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3 bet with a not explorable flop 3 bet with a not explorable flop

05-23-2020 , 02:00 AM
PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 110.3 BB
MP+2: 94 BB
CO: 60.2 BB
BTN: 67.8 BB
SB: 100.5 BB
BB: 98.4 BB
UTG: 126.4 BB
UTG+1: 112.6 BB
Hero (MP): 114.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 10 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 7 BB

Flop: (31.5 BB, 3 players) J 9 6
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP+2 checks

Turn: (31.5 BB, 3 players) 4
UTG+1 bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, MP+2 calls 10 BB, fold

River: (54.5 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 20 BB, MP+2 calls 20 BB

Hero shows Q Q (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 81%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)
MP+2 mucks 7 7 (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 19%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins 90.2 BB

I assume the players would call my bet with pairs or AK. I don't believe they'd call with AJ, unless it's suited. But this is a tough spot, because what kind of hand would call my fat bet otf? AhKh? The only one! All others are beating me!
All coments are welcome!
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote
05-23-2020 , 02:33 AM
I forgot mentioning:

UTG +1 - 25/6/1
MP2 - not enough information
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote
05-24-2020 , 07:54 AM
I'd have bet that flop, to get value out of any overcard/straight draws and hopefully take a player out. Since you didn't, I like raising on the turn, but I think this should have been for more. River bet is good.
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote
05-24-2020 , 10:18 AM
Definitely bet this flop. Any A, K or J are not great turn cards to give away for nothing and likely to make up a decent proportion of both villain's 3-bet calling range. I think 16-18bb's is a good c-bet size.

I then bet on most turns & rivers for value unless villain makes me reevaluate.

As played, I don't like your turn raise sizing. You are giving villain over 6:1 so he only needs 16% equity to call profitably. Make it like 17-20bb.

River bet is fine.
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote
05-25-2020 , 05:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadFourZ
Definitely bet this flop. Any A, K or J are not great turn cards to give away for nothing and likely to make up a decent proportion of both villain's 3-bet calling range. I think 16-18bb's is a good c-bet size.

I then bet on most turns & rivers for value unless villain makes me reevaluate.

As played, I don't like your turn raise sizing. You are giving villain over 6:1 so he only needs 16% equity to call profitably. Make it like 17-20bb.

River bet is fine.

Mate, do you really think he'd call a 3 bet with AJ or KJ? Come on!
And what do you think he'll be calling a 17-20bb ott? QT doesn't play a 3bet hand!
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote
05-25-2020 , 06:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alexbrasile
Mate, do you really think he'd call a 3 bet with AJ or KJ? Come on!
Yes, quite possibly. If you think players at 10NL are not flatting broadway hands to 3bets, this seems very naive. Especially someone who you have as a bit loose passive and another you have said you don't have any information on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by alexbrasile
And what do you think he'll be calling a 17-20bb ott? QT doesn't play a 3bet hand!
AJ, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhTh, KJs, QJs, QTs, JJ, TT, 99, 66, 44, 8h7h, 9h8h, possibly Ah9h are all possible.

You have no evidence to suggest that either player doesn't play QT - it seems that's your understanding of how they should play rather than how they do or could play.

Whats their Fold to 3-Bet stat?
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote
05-25-2020 , 05:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadFourZ
Yes, quite possibly. If you think players at 10NL are not flatting broadway hands to 3bets, this seems very naive. Especially someone who you have as a bit loose passive and another you have said you don't have any information on.



AJ, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhTh, KJs, QJs, QTs, JJ, TT, 99, 66, 44, 8h7h, 9h8h, possibly Ah9h are all possible.

You have no evidence to suggest that either player doesn't play QT - it seems that's your understanding of how they should play rather than how they do or could play.

Whats their Fold to 3-Bet stat?
UTG folds close to 80% but we need to consider he raises 6% of the hands! So, AJ is in this range? No way!
I might agree I should bet a tiny value to make AK call.
Just to remind, I have a blocker of heart
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote
05-28-2020 , 02:26 PM
cbet for sure - i woulda potted it

i would even pot turn and river
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote
06-03-2020 , 06:50 AM
i would cbet the flop for sure, also no way to find out what you are up against also if you just check.

you still only have 1 pair
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote
06-05-2020 , 12:59 AM
But you could see that I got value from 77 ott and otr. I don't think he'd call my bet otf. Perhaps, but he'd fold 2nd barrel
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote
06-05-2020 , 01:14 PM
in this instance you got value. You want to make sure you're strategy is more durable in the long run. Unless you have a certain read, then you have to bet the flop imo
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote
06-05-2020 , 01:16 PM
Giving away a free card seems silly in a 3 way pot when your hand is 1 pair still. You won't like a A/K or Q on turn either
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote
06-05-2020 , 04:28 PM
Not really a fan of the whole hand.

Kind of baffled at not betting the flop, seems like a value slam dunk. Turn raise is too small, nothing is folding there and giving proper odds to call pretty much any draw.

River is also weird.

Ultimately the larger problem with these oddball sizings, is that by not betting flop, you're costing yourself value on later streets.

Just curious, when you don't bet the flop, what's the plan on an A turn?
3 bet with a not explorable flop Quote

      
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