PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 11.88, PFR: 4.73, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 407)
BTN: 26.5 BB (VPIP: 32.14, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
SB: 79 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
BB: 109 BB (VPIP: 7.69, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
UTG: 112 BB (VPIP: 9.17, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 242)
Hero (UTG+1): 123.5 BB
MP: 91 BB (VPIP: 14.14, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 101)
MP+1: 91 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP+2: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.56, PFR: 12.59, 3Bet Preflop: 5.66, Hands: 135)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, MP raises to 9.5 BB, MP+1 calls 9.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 35 BB, MP raises to 91 BB and is all-in, MP+1 calls 81.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 56 BB


I called this purely because I thought I was getting correct odds to call here.
Can we ever fold here?

once you 4b for value to >1/3 stacks, you can't fold anymore

Yeah figured.
Just hate these spots and wanted to make sure I'm not spewing.

AKo is 33% against QQ+, AKs
We're calling 56bb to win 207bb, so we only need about 27%.

Just hate to be losing here so often.

Against AA/KK only we're not even getting odds to call.
Actually against QQ+ for MP and 55+ for MP+1 we're only getting 24%

I think this is really close between folding/calling.
If we put MP+1 on a decent range we can't call here.


AKo: 23%
JJ+,AQs+,AKo: 39%
TT+,AQs+,AKo: 38%

Even with a few more hands, we still don't get to 27%

Should I just 4bet to 20/25bb and fold to a 5bet in these spots?
Or should I 4bet a bit larger so I can call the 5bet shove?

you need 17%, not 27
56 to win 217

Err? Unless I got this very wrong:
56 / 217 * 100 = 25.8%

but the pot will be 273 I think