80% expected QQ but how can you fold here for the price? Also lol at the run out

U seriously thinking about folding?
Nice thread

haha who rattled your cage?

I think it's fairly obvious we're beat so I thought a lot about folding. Turns out I was right

hero 34.51% 34.49% 0.02% 8d8h
mp 40.62% 40.62% 0.00% QQ, 77, AcKc, AcJc
utg 24.87% 24.84% 0.02% 77, AcJc, AcTc, Tc9c, Ac8c, 9c8c, 6c5c


you need 14%~ equity to breakeven. even by your own projections of being beat 80% of the time it's still a call. if you give mp QQ and 77 only, it's still a snap call. this thread's existence is the reason why you should learn how to use an equity sim

I see.. so u saw the result, V hold the QQ... u were right... fold it asap!

U were obv beat. Why did u call?

I know how to use an eq sim and calculate pot odds etc. Was just one of those where I felt like I was against top set. I know online poker has been boiled down to almost a purely maths based games these days but I go off feel sometimes too. And like I said, turns out I was right but just kinda wanted to see what hands had caused a situation that you don't really see very often

if this were true and you applied your knowledge to the situation then this thread wouldn't exist. if you knew how to break down the ranges for this spot you'd realize he has an equal chance of holding 77 as he does QQ, not to mention a handful of combos of strong draws which villain can easily play like this. just because you were right in him having top set in this particular instance doesn't mean you'll always be right. in fact, you'd be wrong most of the time. feelings are irrelevant in this spot (even moreso since this hand happened online); it should be approached with pure math every single time. doing anything else is doing yourself a disservice if you like winning money

Well, it is true....so yea.

You realise there were 3 villains all in here? I was last to act and 3 villains all in, not one or even two. And I don't agree that feel or instinct is irrelevant, if you approach every decision from a purely mathematical point of view (never an exploitative one) you're missing huge value elsewhere in the game. I've played lots of hands with these guys, I don't think the two that had sets really have it in them to shove draws here. And again, turns out I was right

if you have a problem with the ranges i've assigned to each villain then blame yourself for failing to provide these laser sharp reads in your original post. besides, you'd have to be some next level sort of nit to not get in a combo draw here which is essentially flipping against top set.

Yea prob best to leave it as I don't. Wasn't even a range assigned for BB - did you misread the OP? And I wouldn't say 'laser sharp' reads I just don't see a 4 way all in spot that's been cold 3 bet and 4 bet shoved and called all around by 3 villains, in which the second nuts is good.

Like I said though it's pretty much a one in a million hand so no biggie

Realistically you are only behind MP if they only have QQ here, but they are priced in with all their nut flush draws too so it's definitely a call for that price, even if villain may be able to get away w 77.

fwiw Instinct in poker is basically rough mathematics. You'll make a range assumption given player pool tendencies, roughly calculate your pot odds + equity in your head and determine if it's a call or not. So instincts aren't irrelevent and are how we make all of our decisions in poker, but imo your instincts were wrong and too assumptive in this situation.

the other players are more or less irrelevant. let me break it down in the simplest terms possible: only mp can have you beat with QQ - no one else can have it in their range. you are ahead of everyone else's range. it doesn't matter what they're shoving. it's ALWAYS a worse hand than your 88. when it folds around to mp, he's priced in with his nut flush/combo draws and QQ and *might* find a hero fold with 77, thus giving you enough equity. i challenge you to provide a range where you don't have 14% equity required to make the call.

you're right. they were detrimental in op's shoes

Agreed that u can calculate pot odds. I just think that u don't know what it means.

Eventho u were right, doesn't mean that it is the right play.
Playing only with ur feelings (like u are obv stating here in this hand ''I knew I was beat'') is just bad. There's same amount of combos of 77&QQ.

I know that he know that I know that he know that -thinking isn't the best way to determine ranges.... In these AI spots specifically, u need to run V range to ur holdings and see the percentages.

Set over set is not a one in a million occurrence.

Take your clickbait elsewhere OP.

No, to OP's question.

Totally expected to see bottom quads vs straight flush.

#letdown

Ya agreed, I come from a pretty successful live poker background where 'feel' probably plays a much bigger part of the game.

FWIW I did call, I know my pot odds, I was just fairly certain one of these guys (2 of whom are nits) had me beat, and it turned out that I was right, but still mathematically a call none the less.

OK well what you think and reality are 2 different things so not too fussed on that one.

And Like I said, I did call. The whole point of the post was kind of to raise the question of whether instincts should override mathematics in unusual spots and whether you ever should follow your gut and ognore the maths. Turns out this is one of the spots where it would have worked (in the sense that I was behind)...I turned quads though so can't complain can I?

Set over set over set and turned quads?

I have 2 million hands and it's the first time I've seen it

Too many feels.

Stick to actual reason.

Nah - feels paid my bills at the poker table before a lot of you solver geniuses were even glints in your dads' eyes

Mkay. Here's the thing, feelings sometimes are from picking up signs that you haven't consciously recognised and been able to formulate, and if you're able to figure out what it is that's giving you that feeling then maybe you can decode something useful (timing tells and such).

But feelings are just as often, if not more often, absolutely useless. It's paranoia, or nervousness or whatever else. And you obviously know this or you wouldn't have called.

So when you get a "feeling", you can either attempt to figure out what's caused it and whether that's useful info or not or it's not helpful. Because how can we ever know if this is just confirmation bias or not? How can you know? Do you keep track of the accuracy of your feelings?

But, most of all, you know that your feelings, even if they're spot on, aren't something we can share. We can't base any advice off your feelings even if they're highly accurate. We can only do it off the hand history and any objective info you provide along with it.

Feel free to trust your feelings, but don't be surprised when we advise against them, because you're using a measure we neither have nor have reason to trust ourselves. That's why you're going to get a ton of glib responses.

You were last to act and the All-Ins had already been called. You woulda seen the cards even if you folded...

sick souldread tho

Afraid not as this was Snap and had 6 tables open which means the fold and view on 888 doesn't work weirdly

So your feels made you want to fold, but then you called because of other feels.

This is the kind of contradiction that leads us to a rational approach to poker.

Graphs or it didn't happen.

I totally missed this was 4, and not 3 way, and that it was set over set over set, but, I still am not folding.

Not every day you see top set at 49.88% otf.