$0.01/$0.02 Blinds No Limit Holdem
Total number of players : 8
UTG+1: ( $2.09 )
UTG+2: ( $2.14 )
UTG+3: ( $0.83 )
MP: ( $0.80 )
CO: ( $2.24 )
BTN: ( $1.93 )
Hero SB: ( $2.10 )
BB: ( $2.09 )

Preflolp
Dealt to Hero [ Ah, As ]
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, UTG+3 folds, MP folds, CO raises [$0.06], BTN folds, Hero (SB) raises [$0.15], BB calls [$0.14], CO folds.

** Dealing flop ** ($0.36) Kd, 8c, 9c
Hero bets [$0.13], BB raises [$0.44], Hero calls [$0.31]

** Dealing turn ** [ 2s ]
Hero checks, BB bets [$0.63], Hero raises [$1.50], BB calls [$0.86]

** Dealing river ** [ 7h ]

** Summary **
Hero shows [ Ah, As ]
BB shows [ 2c, 2h ]
BB collected [ $3.98 ]

BB is unknown Reg.
Flop:
Against fish it’s easy fold. Against reg, well, not so easy. I bet somewhat small, so, I guess, he can either bluff-raise, or value bet with AK. So, what options I have (from worse to less worse, as I think):
1. Shove. Against his reasonable range: AKo, AKs, 88-99, KK (not likely, but possible), AQcc, KQcc, I got 40.7%, while my pot odds 61.6%. Additionally, he probably fold everything, but sets, so I’ll isolate myself with top of his range. So shove is no good.
2. Fold. Well, I don’t have strong hand and out of position. But K definitely in his range, I could induce some bluff with my small bet (actually I did), additionally, in 3bet pots people tend to overvalue they top pairs. So, I don’t think I can just fold here.
3. Call. I got pot odds. In this particular situation OOP is not so bad, as villain more likely keep applying pressure IP with his TP and bluffs. So, from my point of view, call is best decision.

Turn:
My plan is C/F any club or kings, continue on everything else. Villain bet again on blank. I can’t call now and fold on river and he don’t fold TP on 1-to-4, and can call with FD. So he can call with whole range. Besides, on K, club and, somewhat, Q river I’ll get some tough decisions. So it’s either shove or fold. I got very close pot odds in my shove, even with Semibluffs and TPTK in villain’s range. And, of course, got totally crushed, if they not. So maybe fold is better option there. And considering raise and OOP, maybe it’s better to fold on Flop.

Or, I can bet larger on flop, to discourage my opponents from bluff. But I really like, how my smaller bets get called with 3nd pairs 3 streets even by regs. With small bets I keep pot small with mediocre holdings (TPTK, Overpairs) and retain initiative OOP through hand. And I get fantastic odds on my flop conbets.

So, I really stuck in here.

This particular hand turn up quite bizarre. I mean, villain call 3b with deuces, turn them in expensive bluff on flop, got his 4% set on turn. Odd for 2NL. Or maybe fella was just in tilt. Anyway, this particular outcome doesn’t matter, but situation in whole.

What your thoughts about this?

P.S. Sorry for bad English.

In my case will call down all streets and watchout for cards like clubs,6,7,T,J,Q.

Thanks for your reply!

Well, if you planning call turn and fold on river on 6 7 T J Q, than you fold on 29 from remaining 44 cards in deck, or in 40%. After turn call you’ll have effective stack $0.86 in $2.45 pot. If villain shove on river for only 1/3 pot, he need you to fold only 25% to break even, and you, again, planning give up in 40%. So, he can bet on river any two and show massive profit. You can avoid this by not fold whatsoever and possible make mistake by calling with worse. Or shove on turn and put your opponent in spot where he can either call with worse himself or call with draw incorrectly, as he don’t get proper odds.

In other hand, there are folks who bluff his whole stack if they feel weakness, so you can call them down. But I really don’t like call down 100BB with just overpairs.

Again, this is hard spot (at least for me), and I just don’t see good decisions here.
Thanks for your contribution!

On your Flop analysis, you are considering a shove. I see how you get your equity and pot odds percentages and I love how you are using poker math to justify your decisions. But I believe there are a few mistakes in your analysis:

1) It seems like the range you listed to get the 40.7% is his raising range, not his range when he calls your shove. You should expect this range to shrink when facing a shove (like you said to the top part of his range). This percentage is useful when his $0.44 raise is all in on the flop.

2) Since you are shoving, the 61.6% is how much of your opponents range you need to fold to show an immediate profit. So I dont think you should compare this to your equity in the hand.

3) Your point about shoving here will only get called by better hands is very good analysis and should be your main reason to not shove.

Correct me if I am wrong with any of this. I am still learning about these fundamental poker theories haha

Okay,
first of all this is going to be my first post on any poker forum. though i havent played much and nor do i have skills to anybody's level out here but i just want to share my thinking about this hand, hoping that you will correct my thinking if i went wrong somhere,

first thing i noticed was that your 3bet was bit low here on preflop. perhaps .20$ would have been on the right side?

then the way villain played the flop, i would put him on either a flush/straight draw or a pocket pair. non reg player is not going to play his set so fast. his raise is .44 which is close to 1/5th of your current stack. i would have preferred to push all-in post flop. against a flush draw you are 2:1 fav. against an underpair you are way ahead.

his turn play was quite out of the line, if he would have been on a flush draw, he just would have check/called or bet here. bet here wouldnt make sense to me because he already have played pre-flow and post-flow aggressively so if he thinks hes already ahead hes most probably going to check or bet, raising again is looking quite odd to me, i am definitely going to put him on a set. perhaps deuce helped him or hes already holding 88/99/KK. but his post flow actions doesnt fit with KK/88/99 so definitely 2 has helped him so i am going to fold the turn and curse the deuce.

this is exactly my philosophy that if you plan to call the turn and check/fold the river then perhaps either fold on the turn and be done with or raise right here.

I don't like bet small on flop.

If the line is bet call, bet call, bet call.

You feels good.

But when you get raised on the flop, you drop into a multi- level thinking.

Below is what I think:



You will convince yourself, he raise is try to bluff your weakness, and you will call him anyway.

You may feel bullied when he raise your flop and your call and check the turn make him play perfectly. He won't bluff turn as you call and tell him you are have AK+， when he bet turn, you are 100% beat.

I mean you either shove the flop or fold the turn.

As I think some maybe lots of his bluffs will check turn back.

If he have draws, he better have a free card on turn instead of semi bluff. Indeed he had 2 free cards by raising the flop, he should take that benefit a lot of times instead of double semi bluff.

If he is capable of double bluff turn, good for him. As what you said, you only have over pair. You sooner later will bluffed by other guy, just accept it.

1. Actually, this is exactly what I wrote. His range very likely will shrink if I shove. But my shove not good EVEN if he’ll call with all range.

2. When I shove here, I’m not bluffing. Nothing better will fold. But many worse (TPTK, draws) can call. And against his whole range (better hands + worse hands) I need at least 61.6% (my pot odds). But I get only 40.7% equity. So I don’t shove.

Thanks for reply!

Not sure, if I understand your right, but, actually, I wrote he is “Unknown reg”. But no matter reg or not, he totally can play sets in that way, so I don’t think it’s correct to exclude sets from his range, especially on board with FD and K. As I think, 2s on turn is total blank and just lucky hit for opponent.

Thanks for contribution!

Well, I don’t convince myself that he pure bluffing. My small bet:
1. Increase probability of his bluff.
2. He can have AK (or KQ less likely), convince himself that I bluff or thin VB with QQ, and just VB me with TPTK.

So, my small bet just make his raise range wider. And, as you wrote, it’s very well when they just call down you 3st and very bad, when they raise you IP.

And when I think about your statement, I came to this conclusion: when I call his raise on flop I hope get value from bluffs and mainly, from AK. But if I would bet larger, AK will probably just call and pay off anyway, and he will more timid with his bluff. So, on this particular board (3bet pot, K-high FD) I think is better to bet larger, it will make decisions much easier.

Thanks for very helpful reply!

Sorry everyone for late replies. Just thought this thread is dead!