PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.56, PFR: 7.04, 3Bet Preflop: 1.45, Hands: 143)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
UTG+1: 96.5 BB (VPIP: 21.25, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 80)
MP: 84.5 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 4.21, Hands: 235)
CO: 99.5 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
Hero (BTN): 104 BB
SB: 104 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, SB calls 3.5 BB, fold

Flop: (9 BB, 2 players) 2 K 2
SB checks, Hero bets 4.5 BB, SB calls 4.5 BB

Turn: (18 BB, 2 players) 9
SB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, SB calls 9 BB

River: (36 BB, 2 players) 5
SB checks, Hero bets 17.5 BB


Am I losing value by betting too small here?
What size should I bet here?
What if villain ever raises us?

While playing the hand I thought I'd rather keep the pot small since villain could easily have a 2 here and take my stack if I bet larger.

Reviewing the hand after my session I feel like I should've bet more around 65% pot on turn and river.
Maybe even checked the flop to allow villain to catch up?

As played, is villain ever calling a larger river bet with worse?

big turn ship river
not close

not close? what does that mean?

if I bet 18bb on the turn
river pot is 54bb and I still have 78bb left, do you really want me to overbet river like that?


if I go pot/pot/pot
flop pot = 9bb (bet 9bb)
turn pot = 27bb (bet 27bb)
river pot = 81bb
then I could ship for my remaining 64bb
but is villain really calling down these amounts with worse hands?

turn pot = 18bb (bet 12bb)
river pot = 42bb

then I can bet river for around 28bb
which seems much more reasonable for worse hands to call with, or not?

pot turn because you're not targeting the fish's small pairs and Ahighs, those fold to 1/2p as well. Kx and clubs call pot, some other crap too

yes, overbet ship river, fish don't fold top pair on this board

you're only betting flop smaller because you want wider calls. his range on turn and esp river is in-elastic to the size of your bets i.e. he either has a strong hand or nothing at all and then the size of your bet he needs to call doesn't matter

if you try and make fancy value sized bets you will lose value to fish almost every single time
get all the money in

This flop is basically the nuts for your hand. Bet as much as you can get away with.

So our strategy here is to give villain our stack every time they hit a set or have a 2?
And win their stack most of the time when they have TP? I'm assuming villain is (or some villains are) folding at least some of the time with TP against my overbet on the river?

That might actually be higher +EV than my play here.

I'm assuming a lot of the time villains are going to be raising us with stronger hands on the flop or turn.

There's exactly 2 hands that beat you:
A2 and 22
I'd even say A2s is a stretch.
What other hands do you expect the SB to flat against a raise?

Yes.