Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.25(BB)
EP ($35.82) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 26.7% | AGG: 31.3% | 3-Bet: 18.8% | Hands: 30]
MP ($24.75) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 2]
HJ ($24.4) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 10]
CO ($23.85) [VPIP: 11.1% | PFR: 11.1% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 9.1% | Hands: 19]
HERO ($23.16) [VPIP: 16.3% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 37.3% | 3-Bet: 6.3% | Hands: 31319]
SB ($20.18) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 7.1% | AGG: 11.1% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 14]
BB ($8.29) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 26.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 28]
UTG ($52.2) [VPIP: 24% | PFR: 18% | AGG: 14.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 50]

Dealt to Hero: T T

UTG Folds, EP Raises To $0.75, MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $2.25, SB Calls $2.15, BB Calls $2, EP Calls $1.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [0.67 effective]
Flop ($9.00): 7 J 9
SB Checks, BB Checks, EP Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($9.00): 7 J 9 4
SB Checks, BB Checks, EP Checks, HERO Bets $2.75 (Rem. Stack: 18.16), SB Folds, BB Folds, EP Calls $2.75 (Rem. Stack: 30.82)

River ($14.50): 7 J 9 4 9
EP Bets $30.82 (allin), HERO?

Spoiler:

HERO Calls $18.16 (allin)

Ok so this absolutely was not a snap call for me. I actually waited until the very last second of my time bank to make the call and I was thinking fold the whole way

Here was my thought process though.

- although I had limited stats villain looked pretty aggressive.

- I held TT so I blocked the straight. that leaves him with only 8 possible combos of T8 and I think it is safe to say we can rule out the off suit combos. so that leaves him with 2 suited combos and even being suited I still don't see him open raising and then calling a 3 bet with T8 from EP.

- I can see him having a lot of Jx hands, could have some sets here, I also would maybe add in A9s in his range. There was a lot of possible hands to worry about but overall not a whole lot was going on with this board.

- The thing that convinced me make the call here was the way he played the hand. He was quite aggressive so I think with a lot of his stronger hands he would have led out on the flop, if not I think he is re-raising me when I made the bet on the turn. Still.. he could be slow playing a monster here and I am completely off, but that's just how I saw it.

- With his river jam, To me it looked like he had just missed a draw, knew he was going to loose at SD so he jams trying to get a fold. But.... I have seen a lot of players at these stakes make this exact move with the nuts.. so it was quite tough.


what are your thoughts?

Is this a profitable call long term?

How is my thought process here? are there some factors I am over looking or just completely wrong on?

also could I have took a better line? should i have C bet this flop?


sorry for all the questions and the long post lol. I just thought this was a very interesting spot and i would like to pick it apart as best I can!

Thanks in advance, D.

Flop is fine, we have solid sdv. However if we check on the flop I don't see how the turn is going to change much and I would just check ott as well.

AP otr I just fold and take a note on the villain.

wp. I don't think taking a stab on the turn is super bad, but this board is quite coordinated. Realize that we also have also capped our range somewhat by checking flop back multi way, and we would probably elect to choose a bigger sizing with our big value hands on turn. Turn, villain would almost certainly check raise a set, 2 pair, or a straight, as the board is getting more coordinated, and there is plenty to get value from. You are also stabbing multi-way, which is more indicative of strength. River, villain decides to over-polarize. This was a pretty big mistake. You figured out that his big value hands do not play this way. His distribution has a fair amount of combo stuff in it on this texture, some of which improves on the river, but having 2 tens here is actually quite useful, as he can have only 1 combo of T9s, and T8s combos are cut in half. Is this a long term winning call? Idk, you flipped a coin on it, and figured out villain's line doesn't make sense. It's a very specific situation, and it is a high risk call.

also, not c-betting this flop. This, imo, hits SB cold calling range pretty hard, and also coordinates well with initial raiser's defends. BB is all over the place, but probably doesn't have complete garbage, because he is not closing action.

Don't you love the 2x pot bluff? 99% of players at that level have no idea of the what or the why, they just seen it somewhere and thought is was cool.

I say well done figuring out that line made no sense at all. I would also say those kinds of calls long term probably are not going to make you money. It seems to me that when you're running well, they're bluffing, and when you're not, they have it.

AP, I'm checking behind on the turn also. You're not THAT strong, no reason to bloat the pot and put yourself in the situation that you did.