How many flushes are really in villains range?
Assuming a ~12% calling range from the SB preflop (if he flats QQ+) of TT+, 88-55, A9s+, A5s-A4s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo+ you have about 83% equity on the flop. 87% on the turn and almost 89% on river.
Using the same range, he can only have 6 possible hands to make a flush due to the board.
If you assume Villain will always 3bet TT+ and think he went wider to about a 30% calling range preflop of 99-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q3s+, J5s+, T5s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, AJo-A8o, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o you have about 85% equity on the flop. 87% on turn and almost 90% on river.
Using this range, he can have 34 possible hands that make a flush due to the board.
However, would he play a set like this given the monochrome flop?
He might…however that set will specifically have to be 33 assuming he will always 3bet AA and JJ preflop OOP. If he did flat with JJ, he could be floating with a J
thinking if he hits a flush he’ll be good, but I don’t really see him making the raise on the turn unless he puts you on complete air and is trying to take it away right there and then. Pocket 55 will most likely let go on the flop, even if he has a 5
because there is just too much that can beat him.
Given the situation, I would call the river bet.