Villain is 20/15 with a 6% 3Bet and 8% cold call preflop
Only have 195 hands on them so post-flop stats aren't really significant but his aggression factor is very high for a reg at 4.5

PokerStars - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $25.00
BTN: $37.50
SB: $24.75
BB: $23.74
UTG: $9.75
UTG+1: $25.84
Hero (MP): $25.00

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 9 9

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, SB calls $0.65, fold

Flop: ($1.75, 2 players) 3 A 9
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.25, 2 players) 5
SB checks, Hero bets $3.00, SB raises to $8.75, Hero calls $5.75

River: ($21.75, 2 players) J
SB bets $14.00 and is all-in

How many flushes are really in villains range?
However, would he play a set like this given the monochrome flop?

Looking at his sizing he's giving you about 2.5:1 on turn and river. Seems like a good sizing for someone who wants calls. He seems to be playing it like he has it, but then that's how he should play it if he decided on the flop to run a 3 street bluff. Tough one, but I'm probably calling given I beat a set of 3 or 5's and I doubt he has pocket aces.

How many flushes are really in villains range?

Assuming a ~12% calling range from the SB preflop (if he flats QQ+) of TT+, 88-55, A9s+, A5s-A4s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo+ you have about 83% equity on the flop. 87% on the turn and almost 89% on river.

Using the same range, he can only have 6 possible hands to make a flush due to the board.

If you assume Villain will always 3bet TT+ and think he went wider to about a 30% calling range preflop of 99-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q3s+, J5s+, T5s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, AJo-A8o, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o you have about 85% equity on the flop. 87% on turn and almost 90% on river.

Using this range, he can have 34 possible hands that make a flush due to the board.

However, would he play a set like this given the monochrome flop?

He might…however that set will specifically have to be 33 assuming he will always 3bet AA and JJ preflop OOP. If he did flat with JJ, he could be floating with a J thinking if he hits a flush he’ll be good, but I don’t really see him making the raise on the turn unless he puts you on complete air and is trying to take it away right there and then. Pocket 55 will most likely let go on the flop, even if he has a 5 because there is just too much that can beat him.

Given the situation, I would call the river bet.

Just a quick question. Do you only open 4x from UTG? And do you use that size for your entire opening range?

Looking at this hand. I think villain is completely FOS and likely is running a huge bluff with the Kh, so as played yeah I call.. however I'm not going for 3 streets ever. I check back the turn for pot control.

I vary my opening sizing by position. UTG is the only position that I 4x it from. I tend not to be 3bet lightly from there and it reduces post-flop SPR to make decisions somewhat easier since I'll be playing OOP.

Looks like he has the flush.
If he had Kh he'd usually check-raise on the flop, unless it's KK or K9o but I don't expect both these hands in his flatting range preflop.
Fold river.

Couldn't agree more with this. Open up his range, give him most suited connectors and Kh, you are still a big favorite

Raising turn is just insane here, you range is extremely strong and you can always call to draw with Axkh/sets. 90% of regs will literally never do this with a bluff.

btw AF is useless

Opponent either has trapped on the flop with a flush, has 33 for a lesser value hand, turned K hand into a bluff, or is going bat-**** crazy on a stone cold bluff.

I think you are good to call. His AF is quite high so you can give him less credit on his raises for the most part.

Its a call, but I'd have checked the turn and called any reasonable river. I don't think he would jam the river like this with a flush, I'm thinking a bet of 9/10$ gets more calls if he has us beat, but he likely has an Ace or even AJ .....likely a h in there and busted draw.
Its a call from me, but the turn action is ugly and has left us in a position where we are stacking off, with a slightly less than optimal hand.