Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): 169.92 BB
CO: 74.88 BB (VPIP: 25.40, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 63)
BTN: 83.8 BB (VPIP: 68.29, PFR: 17.07, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 42)
SB: 99 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: 276.64 BB (VPIP: 25.44, PFR: 21.20, 3Bet Preflop: 11.03, Hands: 409)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, Hero raises to 2.52 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.12 BB, fold

Flop: (6.04 BB, 2 players) Q 7 6
SB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, SB calls 3 BB

Turn: (12.04 BB, 2 players) 8
SB checks, Hero bets 7.8 BB, SB raises to 28 BB, Hero calls 20.2 BB

River: (68.04 BB, 2 players) 8
SB bets 65.48 BB and is all-in, Hero?

what should be our calling range OTR?

Hi

Given that the btn and co seem cally pre ( although over a small sample) I would raise the standard 3.5bb pre instead of 2.5

On the flop we really want to be betting bigger ~4.5bb

The turn seems ok to b/c and I do expect top pair to be Good v little here
I think my reasoning here is that the 8 would help a lot of the draws in Vs range which call the flop i think the V would rais any slowplayed sets, turned straights and two pair along with some combo draws ( eg 89)

I'm x/f that river I think a lot just because I think this card helps a lot of his flop calling range

I agree that flop should be slightly bigger.
OTR I think the fact that we have the clubs make it towards fold, since we block some of his bluffing range. My question is if we had A Q we should call it ?

Flop

I would go with a bigger bet, maybe 3/4 pot. Think about what Villain's calling range is. A lot of top pairs, flush draws and straight draws. And some pair + equity hands. I think all of those would be willing to call 3/4 pot.

Turn

Tough spot. What could Villain be raising with that you beat?
- I'd think he'd raise club flush draws on the flop.
- T9 straight draw? That'd be kinda weird. It'd be hard to get value from that on the river because the straight completing would be really obvious, and flush draws could also complete meaning reverse implied odds.
- Possibly 99 or 55. But this just doesn't seem like a good spot to do that with at all on such a draw heavy board.
- Possibly spade draws, but what spade draw combos are calling on the flop? Possibly some stuff like KsJs or JsTs.
- KQ for thin value? I don't see many players making that sort of play at all though.

I'm having a pretty hard time coming up with plausible hands Villain could have that you beat. Still, you've got ~48:20 pot odds, which means you only need to win about 30% of the time for calling to be immediately profitable. You've got 11 outs (flush + Q sets), and will hit an out on the river about 22% of the time. But, you do have some implied odds. And Villain will be bluffing some percentage of the time. I think it's close, but that the numbers slightly favor calling.

River

What is Villain's bluffing range here, if it exists at all? I assume that Villain is very value heavy on the turn, and becomes a lot more value heavy on the river, just because that's what players at this level usually do (population tendencies). So I'd happily fold this, knowing that you are denying your opponent value in a spot where when things are reversed, he'll be giving you that value with TPTK.

If Villain is aggressive and bluffy enough, I think you could justify a call, but keep in mind that TPTK is effectively a bluff catcher in this scenario, so you'd be calling to get value from his bluffed flush draws and stuff.

Well for one we shouldn't be bet calling AdQd but rather be bet folding it on that turn - I'm just not very happy calling down on that turn really

Secondly I think the Ac does bring in some removal effects and he has flushes much lesser , but droolers have a wider flop calling range than just Qs and FDs
I think a more realistic range for his flop flat includes 89,9T,56,85,99,88,TT, 78,68,69,57 etc etc
And though I would expect him to raise sets some decent percentage of the time OTF but he very well could slow play 77,66 otf

I think the 8 helps too much of this range

And this is the reason I want to fold on the river

You need to win 33% of the time to break even when you call his pot sized shove on the river and I don't think he is bluffing a third of the time with that board