Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (MP): $295.65
CO: $425.21 (VPIP: 21.31, PFR: 17.61, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 355)
BTN: $200.00 (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 20.77, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 134)
SB: $420.12 (VPIP: 30.30, PFR: 21.21, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, Hands: 68)
BB: $144.10 (VPIP: 17.47, PFR: 14.37, 3Bet Preflop: 6.35, Hands: 1,016)
UTG: $261.29 (VPIP: 28.35, PFR: 18.56, 3Bet Preflop: 6.10, Hands: 395)

SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has Kh Qd
fold, Hero raises to $6.00, CO calls $6.00, fold, fold, fold

Flop : ($15.00, 2 players) 8h 9c Ks
Hero bets $10.00, CO raises to $32.00, Hero calls $22.00

Turn : ($79.00, 2 players) 5c
Hero checks, CO bets $60.00, Hero calls $60.00

River : ($199.00, 2 players) Kc
Hero checks, CO bets $327.21 and is all-in, fold

CO wins $196.00
$0.24 was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.



So not sure I should be call the flop if I'm not willing to call off river but idk felt pretty lost in this hand. I think I'm often up against flopped set and don't expect a misssed straight draw to shove river. Kind of want a thought process check.

I'm thinking a fold on the turn is probably correct.

Opponent has fairly reggish stats. He's going to have a full house here pretty much every time. If he thinks you are capable of folding he may include QJs, QTs, and JTs as a bluff. You block some of those bluffs too.

I don't think most regs check/raise tripple barrel here especially with a king on the board. His calling range is probably 4%ish so I would expect 88 and 99 a high percentage of the time.

Thanks. I agree with everything you said, good to get confirmation

I would perceive the turn bet as a strong value bet fold there

Completely on board with this, great analysis btw.

Is there are chance though that this reg would play 89os? I would throw that into the range with bluffs along with some 67 and the random K10/K9??? The latter seems like a stretch.

I suppose it is possible, but I'd consider it unlikely as CO seems to be calling with around 4% of hands here preflop. That range would likely consist of mostly pocket pairs and possibly a few suited connectors or suited aces. I would expect them to most likely be high suited aces or suited broad way.

How do you know the CO plays 4% here?

I can't know for sure, but VPIP - PFR gives 3.7 which is about 4. That usually is a pretty good indicator of the amount of hands they are calling with.

Very nice.

If we call on the turn, we have to call the river as that’s the best card that could come for us. But yes fold the turn.