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10NL tough pot oop 10NL tough pot oop

05-23-2018 , 05:10 AM
PS NL10 FR

HERO SB(150BB)
VILLAN BTN(110BB)

all way fold to BTN

BTN raise to 3BB (VILLAN pfr/vpip/btn-steal 11/15/27)
HERO CALL with KQo at SB
BB fold

Q1: should HERO fold/call/re-raise?

FLOP [Ks Qc Td] POT (7BB)
HERO DONK BET 4BB (143BB)
VILLAN CALL 4BB (103BB)

TURN [Ks Qc Td][7c] POT (15BB)
HERO BET 10BB
VILLAN RAISE to 34BB (69BB)
HERO CALL 24BB (119BB)

Q2: should HERO fold/call/shove?

RIVER [Ks Qc Td][7c][Js] POT (83BB)

Q3: should HERO donk-shove or check-fold?
10NL tough pot oop Quote
05-23-2018 , 03:37 PM
Preflop

I like to reraise here. I think you should be able to get a decent amount of folds versus Villain's button stealing range.

I don't think calling is bad. You probably have card edge with KQo. But OOP without initiative, I just don't think it'll perform that well.

Flop

I like the bet. There's value to be had from KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT, AA, JJ, probably Kx, maybe Ax, maybe 98. And I don't think there's too much that beats you. KK, QQ, TT, AJ, J9. And it's not a good spot to check looking to induce bluffs on such a scary board.

Turn (initial action)

Same thoughts as the flop.

Turn (after raise)

The raise makes me nervous.

Value range that beats you: straights (AJ, J9), sets (KK, QQ, TT, 77)
Value range that you beat: weaker two pairs (KT, QT, possibly K7)

I don't think Villain would be looking to bluff on a scary board facing two leads. Especially one with such a low rate of stealing from the button.

I also don't really think Villain would be looking to raise with the weaker two pairs on this board. I think they'd be looking to get to showdown. Especially at NL10 where players tend to be passive.

So, I know it sounds crazy, but looking at this with the benefit of being able to take my time analyzing it, I think it's a fold!

River

I definitely wouldn't donk-shove here. With KQJT on the board, I think it'll be hard to get calls from anything other than straights. Maybe sets. But weaker two pairs does not seem likely to call, let alone be in your opponents range at all right now.

If you check and are bet into, I think the logic is similar. The only caveat is that IF your opponent does still have weak stuff in his range, he could perceive your check as weakness and justify him bluffing or going for thin value. But that caveat probably wasn't even worth mentioning. Villain probably doesn't have weak stuff in his range still, and is highly unlikely to be betting with weaker hands on the river, so I would definitely check-fold.
10NL tough pot oop Quote
05-25-2018 , 08:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adamzerner
Preflop

I like to reraise here. I think you should be able to get a decent amount of folds versus Villain's button stealing range.

I don't think calling is bad. You probably have card edge with KQo. But OOP without initiative, I just don't think it'll perform that well.

Flop

I like the bet. There's value to be had from KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT, AA, JJ, probably Kx, maybe Ax, maybe 98. And I don't think there's too much that beats you. KK, QQ, TT, AJ, J9. And it's not a good spot to check looking to induce bluffs on such a scary board.

Turn (initial action)

Same thoughts as the flop.

Turn (after raise)

The raise makes me nervous.

Value range that beats you: straights (AJ, J9), sets (KK, QQ, TT, 77)
Value range that you beat: weaker two pairs (KT, QT, possibly K7)

I don't think Villain would be looking to bluff on a scary board facing two leads. Especially one with such a low rate of stealing from the button.

I also don't really think Villain would be looking to raise with the weaker two pairs on this board. I think they'd be looking to get to showdown. Especially at NL10 where players tend to be passive.

So, I know it sounds crazy, but looking at this with the benefit of being able to take my time analyzing it, I think it's a fold!

River

I definitely wouldn't donk-shove here. With KQJT on the board, I think it'll be hard to get calls from anything other than straights. Maybe sets. But weaker two pairs does not seem likely to call, let alone be in your opponents range at all right now.

If you check and are bet into, I think the logic is similar. The only caveat is that IF your opponent does still have weak stuff in his range, he could perceive your check as weakness and justify him bluffing or going for thin value. But that caveat probably wasn't even worth mentioning. Villain probably doesn't have weak stuff in his range still, and is highly unlikely to be betting with weaker hands on the river, so I would definitely check-fold.
At the TURN, i agree with you that villian will be more likely to make this a value-rasie rather than an semi-bluff-raise. If this is true it means that villan has a set or AJ or J9 at turn.

So Q3 is that, is that profitable to make a donk-shove in the RIVER to bluff away all the villan's hand except he's holding AJ.
10NL tough pot oop Quote

      
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