PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 61.4 BB
SB: 74 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 40.9 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 93 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, Hero posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 6 Q

fold, Hero checks, CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB, CO calls 1 BB

Flop: (7.5 BB, 3 players) Q 2 6
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold

Turn: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BTN bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, BTN calls 7 BB

River: (33.5 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 12.8 BB


According to PokerSnowie, betting the river here is a huge mistake (7.61)
Why?

Maybe because your opponent can have better Qx hands and yours just wants to see a cheap showdown. you most likely are out kicked.

He has top-2p, Queens and 6's. Someone who has a better kicker, like QJ for instance, would have 2p, Queens and 5's because the board has a pair of 5's on it, not because he paired both hole cards.

To run through the hands this board could produce, which is a bit of mental gymnastics, an opponent could have:

Quads: 5555 (anybody starting w 55)
FH: 555/QQ, 55522, 55566, QQQ55, 22255, 66655 (anybody starting with Q5/25/65/qq/66/22)
Flush: Anybody starting with 2 clubs. akc,ajc,atc,a9c,a8s,a7c,a4c,a3c,a2c,kjc,ktc,k9c,k8 c,k7c,k4c,k3c,k2c,jtc,/j9c,j8c,j7c,j4c,j3c,j2c,t9c,t8c,t7c,t4c,t3c,t2c,98 c,97c,94c,93c,92c,87c,84c,83c,82c,74c,73c,72c,43c, 42c
straight: anybody starting with 34
trips: anybody starting with: any 5 other than a FH hand (a5/k5//j5/t5/95/85/75/35).

I'm counting 60 (35%) hands that beat you out of 169 possible starting hands but it is actually more than that because we haven't broken it down by suitedness, which we would need to do for hands like A5, which could beat you with trips, both A5s beats you and A5o beats you. Similarly 34s beats you with a straight, as does 34o. That gets complicated because we have to subtract out the suits that are on the board. Let's just assume it is more like 75-80 hands that beat you, which is more like 45% of all possible hands.

Many of the possible hands that beat you are unlikely, but it was just a min-raise so the cutoff could have a lot of junk just like you do, the B at least has a semi-defined range which may rule out many of these hands.

I think the computer is just being nitty and saying, "let's just check and call down instead of leading and facing a raise with all that slop out there which could beat us." It would be a tough spot and calling a river raise with 2p would probably be -EV.

GL
Magnum

Idk if this is the main factor, but AA and KK are certainly in BTN’s range the way this was played. The river 5 counterfitted your 2p hand against these holdings.

Trying to figure out why you are posting blind from MP first.

Pretty sure there were 2 more sitting out waiting for the blind in front of me and I didn't feel like waiting 4 hands to play.

"According to PokerSnowie, betting the river here is a huge mistake"

Uninstall...

"Maybe because your opponent can have better Qx hands and yours just wants to see a cheap showdown. you most likely are out kicked."

Wha!?

"Trying to figure out why you are posting blind from MP first."

With this and this "Location: Belgium", I will call with A3 OTR . He just pay cheap price for "fishy image".

I think my river bet is very unlikely to be a mistake against the average 10NL player.

I just wonder why it is consider a mistake by Snowie, probably playing close to GTO?

Maybe I'm crazy, but why did you count the flush???