Here's a bit of a hand that leaves a bad taste in your mouth. I'd like to know if I made a generally good decision, and if my analysis was okay. The hand is 9max, but I've only included the relevant stacks.
UTG $120
MP1 $170
MP2 $110
CO $50
BTN (Hero, A
A
) $220
SB $80
BB $100
Preflop ($1.5)
UTG (a nitty reg that I've played around 2K hands with) raises to $3
MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls
Hero 3bets to $14
SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds
Flop ($57.5) 3
3
2
UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks
Hero bets $20
UTG folds
MP1 raises to $40
MP2 folds, CO folds
Hero calls $40
Turn ($137.5) 6
MP1 instantly jams $116
Hero?
Obviously, preflop action and the super dry flop makes us super happy with aces on the button. I decided to bet 1/3 pot (1/4 or checking may have even been better and gives a better price for bluffs with 54s etc.) because the SPR is so low and because I think the bet will extract value from a lot of the lower pocket pairs in my opponents' ranges.
MP1's min raise is extremely suspicious, as there are only a handful of combos of semi-reasonable hands that are ahead (that both flat vs an UTG open and flat a 3bet OOP multiway):
33 (1x), 22 (3x).
I can see how possibly villain would hold 54s 43s, or even A3s, but mostly I think that villain's range consists of 10s+
When villain instant jams on the turn for roughly pot, it's virtually never a bluff given the action. In this situation, my analysis was the following:
I don't think it's very likely villain would check min-raise the flop with 6s. I think villain would likely play 2s and possibly 3s and 54s this way. I think that villain would also play this way with any 3. However, I think it's also possible that villain would play this way with Js+, but is slightly less likely.
Again, I'm curious if anyone else has any thoughts. I'll say what my decision was after