Only one hand today:



As MP raiser has way more semi bluff/worse value hands I don't think my shove is too bad. Villain is getting 37% pot odds so my shove shouldn't scare off his draws.

Villain was VPIP 17 PFR 13 3Bet 8

Villain ended up having top set but I wonder whether this is a profitable line in the long run?

mp3 has no worse value hands and is far from priced in against your value range. It doesn't look like you have TT-JJ and even if you did he won't have enough equity, especially after rake. V will flat his fd with high frequency otf leaving him with very very few combos of semibluffs, which still have a ton of equity against you anyway. I would probably call flop in game just seeing that I block his value so hard but I continue turn very rarely. Its easy to bet with good hands and really hard to know how to bluff every single spot. That's why most 10nl villians will be extremely unbalanced in spots like this, even at higher stakes too. It makes it really easy to spot a set. Only if he is generally very very over aggressive can you call down here.

Thanks. I think your point regarding how difficult it is to bluff in MP3's spot otf is really interesting and I can understand how that leads to an unbalanced strategy of only raising with value hands. As mentioned previously I'm new to 10NL and I maybe overestimated villains ability to be balanced in this spot. Something to think about in future spots!

One question though, If we call, are we always folding to any bet on the turn... If so can we just consider folding?

Thanks again.


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yeah I think folding flop is best, its just that if I am unsure based on villian stats then I would rather call flop and think than ship immediately. As far as I recall if V is passive then even if they rep 3 combos its a sure fold.