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03-30-2012 , 08:18 PM
Plus it's highly likely for there to be more than one winner this drawing. Still -EV. But still +FV (filthy rich value)
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03-30-2012 , 08:21 PM
No, if you split 640MM into 2, still higher than 175MM
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03-30-2012 , 08:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cueballmania
Done.
Good luck to us!
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03-30-2012 , 08:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cueballmania
No, if you split 640MM into 2, still higher than 175MM
Taxes though. If there's 2 winners, it could probably go either way depending on exact taxes.
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03-30-2012 , 08:43 PM
Federal tax is 25%. CA does not have a state prize tax. Just income tax. They say it's about a 1/3 of the value that you actually lose. So, it's close.
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03-30-2012 , 08:48 PM
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE
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03-30-2012 , 08:50 PM
Lump sum should be ~$315 million I'm guessing...
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03-30-2012 , 09:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cueballmania
Federal tax is 25%. CA does not have a state prize tax. Just income tax. They say it's about a 1/3 of the value that you actually lose. So, it's close.
Lucky you then. Around here, the estimate given is usually closer to 1/2 that you lose. Tbh though, I have no idea since I don't actually know anyone who's won anything significant.
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03-30-2012 , 09:21 PM
Article on why it's -EV: http://www.circlemud.org/~jelson/megamillions/

Quote:
There is a 17% chance of there being a single winner and an impressive 77% chance there will be a tie between two or more tickets.
The two most likely outcomes are a 2-way tie (24%) or a 3-way tie (22%). Even a 4-way tie (15.4%) and a riot-inducing 5-way tie (8.6%) are more likely than no winner.
Analysis seems solid but read for yourself.
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03-30-2012 , 11:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cueballmania
Federal tax is 25%. CA does not have a state prize tax. Just income tax. They say it's about a 1/3 of the value that you actually lose. So, it's close.
Federal tax is not 25%; that is the withholding. You'll be paying 38.5% if you win it.
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03-31-2012 , 04:00 AM
brag: made some changes to my zvz and zvt and went on a big winning streak tonight
variance: started getting matched up with some top 3 1k+ masters guys
beat: snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in every such game.
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03-31-2012 , 10:55 AM
karak,

This is entirely speculative, but I'm curious how high on the ladder you think you could go if you were able to practice like a pro-gamer does?

And what did you change re: zvt? You were crushing t's as of ~2 weeks ago so I'm just wondering if something changed or you just got bored crushing with the previous build.
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03-31-2012 , 03:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by loK2thabrain
karak,

This is entirely speculative, but I'm curious how high on the ladder you think you could go if you were able to practice like a pro-gamer does?

And what did you change re: zvt? You were crushing t's as of ~2 weeks ago so I'm just wondering if something changed or you just got bored crushing with the previous build.
I've watched Karak a bunch, if he went full-time he could probably make GM. Other than that I can't really speculate, because that level of play is just too above me.

The one that I'd be most interested going pro is pwncakery who had like 0 mechanics but was still able to get masters in Korea. He hit some good players on NA ladder if I remember correctly too. But he's going to Cow U (LOL U of Guelph :P)
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03-31-2012 , 03:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by loK2thabrain
karak,

This is entirely speculative, but I'm curious how high on the ladder you think you could go if you were able to practice like a pro-gamer does?

And what did you change re: zvt? You were crushing t's as of ~2 weeks ago so I'm just wondering if something changed or you just got bored crushing with the previous build.
If I were full time, I'd easily be low end GM. I think my ceiling, without a ton more work, is probably around there. I'm limited by my focus issues.

I'm pretty sure if I played just a little more than I did now and didn't ladder tired/**** around, I could make GM next season with 2-3 weeks of solid practice cleaning up leaks.

That said, the reason I lose most often is cause I just worked an 8 hour day + had school + have other stuff + sleep 4 hours a night so I play tired, stressed, menatlly worn out, etc. So I just play for fun/relaxation mostly. If I took it too seriously, I'd get too mad considering how grumpy I am when I'm tired/stressed haha.

My ZvT was terrible as of 2 weeks ago, but that's cause the ling/bling build was just losing its effectiveness. Lots of Zs were starting to go pure ling/bling off 3 base, people were adjusting and I didn't have the micro. Plus, infestor/ling is just a lot better. Ever since I've started going infestor ling into 3 base hive + ultra (or BL if it calls for it) into mass expanding I've been crushing souls AS LONG AS I can survive the early game drops/pressure/hellions (I've been opening roach to play super safe as infestor/ling is really cost effective and you can play a bit more conservatively... blings not so cost effective vs good micro off creep).

Last edited by Karak; 03-31-2012 at 04:10 PM.
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03-31-2012 , 04:16 PM
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03-31-2012 , 06:09 PM
good one
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03-31-2012 , 06:53 PM
Brag: Defeated my first masters player today!
Beat: It was PvZ which is apparently imba
Variance: The mother ****er tried a 1 base ling/bane bust on me vs. my strong wall in FFE. I also had more than double his harvesters (and bases!) after the failed all in
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03-31-2012 , 06:58 PM
but i thought zerg was imba wtf
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03-31-2012 , 08:53 PM
Also, playing against terrans makes me embarrassed that I was once a diamond terran who fell into platinum (I did wing a lot of builds back then though). Just last game, one guy tries 2 basing against me, masses marines, thors (6), and vikings w/ ravens (He also pulled 40 SCVs for the push). Unfortunately, his attack hit around the 18 minute mark, so i had a ton of storms, colossus, archons, and lots of chargelots waiting for him, so i thrashed the push, ending up more than 100 supply over him.

Other terrans I play don't seem to do anything good at all either. they do dumb things like standing right next to my nexus when trying to snipe it (easy forcefield), or they just don't drop or banshee harass or anything. It's pathetic.
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04-01-2012 , 03:57 AM
fun development from complexity:

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04-01-2012 , 09:29 AM
Btw Karak, for the MLG qualifier or w/e, MLG entombed does not have close 3rd by ground (ie. horizontal) spawns. But they do also have cloud kingdom
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04-01-2012 , 01:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
fun development from complexity:

April 1st is the worst day each year.
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04-01-2012 , 02:32 PM
Personally, I like this one

http://www.razerzone.com/snakeeyes

Though last year's was better.
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04-01-2012 , 02:35 PM
brag: girl i went out with on a date last night came home with me
brag: things started to get really interesting
variance: she asked me to put a movie on in the background or something
variance: she wanted to know what the weird symbol on my PC wallpaper was

Spoiler:


brag: she furiously googled it but couldnt figure it out
variance: i made the decision to take a break and watch the first few mins of the movie before "reengaging"

beat: i passed out in that few minutes
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04-01-2012 , 02:38 PM
variance:is fishnoob allowed to post in the terran thread now?
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