The other day I sat down to play a $200 Headsup SNG on Full Tilt Poker. To my dislike, my opponent moved ALL IN every hand (there is no way to break off a game if your opponent is a lunatic). I want to ask you what you would do in this situation after I give out some important information. I want your opinion both about this situation (SNG) as well as a headsup FTP cash game...

Important info: (please correct me if im wrong)

1) In a SNG @ Full Tilt, you are given 3000 chips. Blinds begin at 15/30 and make their way up.

2) In a cash game at full tilt, you can only bring 100 times the BB to the game.

So what do you do in HEADSUP play? What cards do you call an all-in with?

Alot of people have said to wait for pocket aces. However, given the starting chip counts and blinds wouldnt this be a losing strategy. On both games you are likely to blind out before you get AA.

That game on Full Tilt ended in me calling with AK suited and losing to small cards. Really wasnt cool but I suppose it taught me something about the game. I suppose the best way to tackle this type game is to avoid it. Even Aces can lose if you happen to pick them up...

Any input?

What's his username?

Yes, clearly the best option is to avoid a highly profitable situation, where your opponent is utilizing a highly exploitable strategy. Yes, i too hate money.

I haven't done the math so i'm not sure if optimal strategy is to call with the top 10%, top 20% or top 35%, but I KNOW that doing any of these is far better than not playing and will make money.

how many hands did he all in with?

He didnt offer to keep playing indefinetly. And I just realized another thing that differs about a cash game and its very very important. You can ALWAYS REBUY so that you can always match his entire stack. Therefore you would just wait for Aces. So that entire part of the question is now out. This only applies to SNGs.

umm... no the fact that you can always rebuy means that you should be willing to gamble more!

in fact if you wait for aces in a 100bb cash game you lose alot of money (dunno why that didn't come into my head first). DUCY?

the fact that you can always rebuy means that it doesnt matter at all what you do cause you will end up having his money either way.

Your point being... what? What I said is true for a single SNG where your opponent is moving in every hand. It's just as true (but no less true) of a series of SNGs where your opponent is moving in every hand. The optimal strategy against this opponent is optimal regardless of the number of games to be played.

Ok, this being said, i admit i tagged on Headsup cash games without thinking (oopsy daisy)... How about the SNG situation I was in?

If the guy was going all in every time, would you have called him with AKs? of course, right? (answer wanted)

I suppose this situation isnt a predicament if you will get to keep playing this same opponent over and over even after going broke yourself... Eventually you will catch him as an overdog and your hand will hold up. The math would play out in the long run...

However, in a SNG format you really cant wait for aces, agreed? -or KK or QQ or JJ. If you get a bad run of cards for a while, the blinds you folded will add up...

I guess this post is semi-******ed because of course, you cant expect to win except in the long run.

I guess ALL I WANT TO KNOW ARE WHAT ARE THIS GUYS AVERAGE CHANCES OF WINNING SNGS if he plays this way over and over?

FYP.

lol. i think anyone here would be happy to play either the all-in happy villain or the clueless original poster.

i guess i need to work on my posting skills. i knew everything you people responded with. i just need to keep on one point and one point only.

I don't think so. In the case where you only get to play 1 game, I would narrow my calling range. In the case where you get to play many games, I would broaden the calling range.

Theoretically, if you got to play an infinite # of games, and time wasn't a consideration, then you would call with the slightest of margins (~ Q7+). With only 1 game, you want to maximize your chance of winning *that hand*, so you should try to call with much better cards (~ KQ+; 77+).

Calling on the narrowest of margins, has an opportunity cost. That of waiting for a slightly bigger margin over his basket of hands in each individual SnG.

The best strategy, is going to be adaptive to the blind:stack ratios, and start tighter and then loosen.

Remember each SnG has an Admin Fee, so just as in a cash game with rake, you need a bigger edge than 51:49 to make a profit.

If you do "flipping" you'll be a loser in the long run.

Then you're wrong.

Then you don't understand fundamental poker theory. The number of games to be played is irrelevant, and the optimal calling range (at each blind level and stack size) is set and immobile mathematically. If you deviate from it then your expectation is less than it would be if you don't, and this is true of 1 game; it's true of 100 games; it's true of 1,000,000 games.

Um, false. Calling with say the top 48% of hands will yield a +EV result, but it won't yield optimal results.

Um, false. Calling with say the top 48% of hands will yield a +EV result, but it won't yield optimal results.

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How would folding hands that are +EV in this scenario yield a better result? Playing those hands does not prevent you from playing the ones where you have a greater edge.

Nope. Your game theory understanding is confused. It's a different game if you only play 1 hand as opposed to an infinite # of hands.

You're wrong.

So calling with +EV hands over an infinite # of games (w/o consideration of rake/time/etc.) is -EV long-term? I don't think so. What exactly do you mean by "optimal" (in this case) if not +EV?

False. The game is identical. The number of trials has no effect on the expectation of each individual trial. You flip a coin and it's it's coming up heads half the time. If you get laid 1:1 on the flip then it's a breakeven proposition, and would be if it were done once or done 1,000,000 times.

Also, i don't know what you mean by '1 hand'. It's 1 game/SNG consisting of multiple hands, not 1 hand.



Nope

Um.. WTF? Who suggested such a thing? No, it's not -EV, it's just not optimal. Calling with top 48% is +EV and a winning strategy; it's just not optimal. That is; calling with a certain tighter percentages at the earlier levels is also +EV but more +EV than calling with the top 48%.

You're ignoring the opportunity cost of waiting. If calling is +EV but getting to play another random hand against the idiot has a higher +EV, then you fold. For the same reason, you'd play tighter against idiots in a tournament than, but looser in a cash game (even to the point of making slightly -EV plays).

You're not getting it. Do you see why? I'll let someone with more patience explain it.

Kip,

If you have a very very slight edge against this opponent (in an SnG), it is correct to wait, because the likelyhood of having a very large edge in the coming hands is nearly 100%. you are forgetting the opportunity cost. You should pass up a slight +EV for this SnG to get a much greater one. Your chances of winning this particular SnG are maximized this way.

Against this type of player, I call with J's or better, and any AK. If you want more risk, Play AQ and 10's. Here's some PokerStove #'s regarding this situation:

83,902,896,000 games 0.157 secs 534,413,350,318 games/sec

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 1: 75.050% 74.54% 00.51% 62539462740 429316098.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 24.950% 24.44% 00.51% 20504801064 429316098.00 { random }

130,049,488,800 games 0.282 secs 461,168,399,999 games/sec
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 1: 72.421% 71.82% 00.60% 93401503408 781002838.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 27.579% 26.98% 00.60% 35085979716 781002838.00 { random }

The ppl saying, that the number of trials doesn't matter, your expectation is the same, may be should think about "Kelly Criterion" ideas.

There, if you have a limited bankroll, the optimal way to grow it, is not to risk so much, and reduce variance.

Isn't the single shot at this player, analagous in a way? You have a one off opportunity, and theoretically a 60:40 edge, therefore by same reasonibg as Sklansky Advanced Tourney book, your call should be made with a hand that has at least a 60:40 edge over a random hand.

Agreed. As the # of games you get to play decreases, the more edge you should wait for. If you only play 1 game, you should wait for a significant edge. If you get to play an infinite #, then the slightest of edges is good.

This isn't considering blinds, time, or bankroll, though. It was theoretical (see my first reply).