Lets assume we have an 6 foot tall, right handed, 18 year old high school senior. His fastball is clocked between 83 and 87 mph with slight movement. He throws a decent curveball, and deceptive changeup. He hits his target 75% of the time.

If he faces Alex Rodriquez 100 times in June (under the same conditions everytime), how many times does he strike him out?

Not once.

unless you mean decent curveball by MLB standards.

He would probably strike me out 5/100 times, and I'm only a good college player.

Define decent curveball and decpetive changeup. Those phrases are too ambiguous to mean anything here. By what standard?

I agree that the description of his abilities is vague, but also vague are the conditions under which the HS pitcher faces Arod. Is Arod batting like he does in game situations, or is he simply batting to not strike out?

If it's a game situation, assuming the kid has good command, I can't imagine him not striking out Arod at least a few times out of 100. I mean the kid's stuff sounds a lot like, say, Jose Lima's, and as bad as Lima is he still gets a few Ks, even of good players.

Change the batter to a guy like Pujols or Bonds who don't strike out much even against the best pitchers and maybe the K rate goes down to nearly 0/100.

Comparing the kid's stuff to Jose Lima's just because the velocities are similar is just so wrong.

ARod never strikes out in the hundred at bats IMO.

Edit/ I suppose it's possible he strikes out by random chance once or twice when the third strike is a bad call. I'd think this would be a rare occurrence though since him getting to two strikes in the first place should be quite rare in itself.

Depends on the other pitches. An 85-ish fastball without much movement doesn't strike out many major leaguers very often.

About 5-6 times per 100 plate appearances would be my guess.

It's definitely not zero. Baseball isn't that kind of sport. Against pitchers who can vary speeds and location and pitch types at all and have some modicum of velocity, you have to do a certain amount of guessing, and if you guess wrong enough times in a row, you'll strike out. Even when position players pitch, they usually record a few strikeouts.

I'm assuming is that A-Rod is trying to maximize the value of his plate appearance, rather than specifically avoid strikeouts. If A-Rod's specific goal were to not strike out, he might be able to get that number down to 1-3 K's per 100 plate appearances by shortening his swing and fouling off pitches that he'd normally take. Still, runs of 100 consecutive plate appearances without a strikeout would be fairly rare.

p.s. This question is framed somewhat poorly because the pitcher described isn't all that bad. If he were either a little bit taller or he was left-handed, he would probably be drafted.

I would assume A-rod doesn't know about the question, and is playing under game conditions. Otherwise, he could just lay down bunts and never strike out. And if you tell a major leaguer to just put the ball in play, anywhere, with no regard fro result, their strikeout rate will approach zero against major league pitching. So i think we should assume our high school is somehow playing in the majors and facing a-rod in a real game.

That aside, I believe the answer is zero over repeated trials (a freak strikeout is always possible). Major leaguers who top out in the mid-80's have incredible control, great movement, excellent other pitches, and perfectly disguised changes in speed, and they still do not strike out many batters. I have seen few high schoolers who disguise their pitches well enough not to tip off major league hitters.

I think a more interesting question is what A-rod's batting average would be after 100 at bats. I would think something north of .500 would not be unrealistic.

best
matt

I don't know much about high school baseball...this guy would be a star at a large HS with a good team, right?

Nate,
Please post more. 2p2>Unfiltered.

Not in Texas, Florida, California or Arizona.

Nate,

Great post.

This isn't true about all or even most major leaguers who pitch in the big leagues and throw in the mid 80s; you haven't paid enough attention when mop up guys and five and spot/replacement starters have been on the mound.

Anyway, I don't have the numbers on me but I'm pretty sure AROD himself strikes out more often per plate appearance than the majority of everyday starters. If he was going up to the plate trying to maximize the value for his team, as opposed to just trying as hard as he could to avoid striking out, he would strike out a few times; I'd take the over if o/u was set at 4. He stikes out 20 times per 100 PA against league average pitching.

What does "hit the target" mean? If he could throw it exactly to a 1 inch spot 75% of the time, he'd be one of the best ever.

I am about sure the answer is 0. This answer definily 0 if A rods task is not to striek out, rather than try to get a hit. I am pretty sure that in HS Joe Mauer only struck out once, and that was in 8th grade. Even though A-Rod stikes out nearly twice as often as Mauer I think this is a testimate as to the difference in MLB and HS if a HS prodigy can not strike out for years.

Mm. Arms improve, eyes don't.

Given the most favorable possible interpretation of "decent curveball" and "deceptive changeup" and assuming that this pitcher is in a baseball-heavy region where scouts are definitely looking at a lot of other players and are guaranteed to see this guy pitch a few times, in what rounds might this player be drafted out of high school?

How many times out of 100 would Tony Gwynn strike out vs OP's pitcher?

Who took the most balls on the chin during the 78 season?

Clearly no catchers have responded to this post. Who is catching, OP?

So, a kid with a slow fastball and average control is pitching to A-Rod. After 100 AB's A-Rod is unlikely to have struck out at all. And neither would Ichiro or 100 other hitters.