GG Poker - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 111 BB
Hero (BB): 118 BB
UTG: 218 BB
MP: 74.5 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A 7

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 6 2 5
SB bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn: (12 BB, 2 players) 9
SB bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

River: (36 BB, 2 players) Q
SB checks, Hero bets 100 BB and is all-in



Thoughts/questions:
- Should I be thinking about folding turn here? I run into big bets a lot both with draws and value on these double flush draw boards, makes me think it's a lot less nut-heavy than most pot sized bets are at 2nl. This might've been a misread though, because what I actually run into from regs is overbetting here, not pot size.
- Does building this sizing into my value range seem reasonable here? E.g. jam flushes? Maybe jam sets.
- Do we feel okay about making this bluff vs population lacking major reads, or only vs regs?
- What about the frequency of this bluff? My bluffs are probably only a7/a8 with a spade. I take some frequency of my A7/A8o with As into a bluff on the turn, reducing the frequency of this even more.

Also got the title totally wrong here, please disregard that part

It's B/C, B/C, X/Shove

call turn is torching

Thank you!

If I fold turn here (which I'm 100% on board with and was questioning myself),

Following this same line, do I then turn some a5/a6/k5 into a bluff, or am I okay to just have 0 bluffs in this line at these stakes?

When I thought through this I didn't like the idea of turning the 5/6 into a bluff as I expected it to have excess show-down value due to missed club flush draws. Am I misguided, or is this just not enough of a reason to not find the bluff?

I don't see the reason to turn A high into a bluff in this case. You have some showdown value. In BvB players generally call down lighter so I would be careful with OB bluffing OTR, and wouldn't do it with SD value. When talking about 2NL I believe it is more important to value bet thin, than to come up with big, creative bluffs.

In short, I felt that I would want to have some bluffs here if I'm doing this for value. I guess that's the part I'm stuck on in the first place and maybe could've asked clearer. Is it okay to just not bluff in some lines where the bluffs shouldn't be that frequent anyway? (aka, stop worrying about having any balance)

your hand has too much showdown BvB

I wouldn't worry about balance at 2NL. At least not in spots like these.

If bluffing in similar hands to the one you posted here, better to do it when you have, for example, J high.

You have all clubs, T8, 84, 74
Who is to say not calling a bare gutshot leaves you with 0 bluffs?

I was thinking I wouldn't want to have clubs, because they make it less likely he has the missed flush draw (which is extra folds for my bluffs).

I did overlook 8c4c and 7c4c here too, which I do have here.

I think a reasonable conclusion might be that blocking some of their folding range is probably better than turning something with a bit of showdown value into a bluff? Can I think about this as a sliding scale, or a hard and fast rule?

Or simpler yet, is this just getting way too picky about selection and I should zoom out and worry way more about the fact that I called turn and overlooked 8c4c and 7c4c in this spot.

it depends, but you should definitely not make bad plays in order to have a better blocker on a later street

Definitely fold flop and turn but river is super interesting, solver always jams this even though equity is a bit over 50%. You are overvaluing blockers, B-Big B-X will overfold, sometimes 90%+ to 1/3 so your bluffs are printing insane EV and checking any J high would be a massive error. You have so many flushes and your opponent is weak enough you reach into weak A high, but not that many so blockers are the tiebreaker.

A lot of the overfold is caused by OOP always blocking weak value so it’ll be a bit less true in reality as TT-Qx will check, so with this hand I think you should just take your equity.

Flop feels like a really easy call here.

In theory, I think it's fine, not positive, but I don't even need to look at MDA to get to the conclusion that blind vs blind people are going to over-bluff this spot at micros, having too much air in their range.

Turn I think I'd have to lean pretty hard into "this is an exploit" to call, and I'm not confident enough in this, agree with the turn fold that I've gotten from a few people.

River I looked at GTOWizard, but I came to the conclusion that player tendencies that I recognize throughout this line make the solver a really wild approximation (solver also mixes and does a lot of folding with this on turn).



I guess I'm curious now, so I'm going to try to AI solve with some assumptions.

I gave BB 1 size for flop and turn, as I think is relevant for a weaker player.

In reality, I strongly suspect flop 50% range looks something like this at 2nl... (or over 10% extra)


It turns out, the correct adjustment is to fold A7o unless I have a club, which has a major implication for blockers.

Note A: I want to circle back and compare the frequency here (58% call) vs the frequency of calling vs more polarized theory range with fewer raises. I suspect that the polarization issues here have some implications...

I'm going to node lock myself into making the mistake of calling flop, mostly out of curiosity at this point.

On the turn, I node lock once again expecting a wild misplay here at 2nl.


I should fold turn here as well.





I'm starting to question my intuition on over-bluffing flop/turn when I realize it might be under-bluffing once combined with polarization errors.


The question I want to open back up here:

Can I fold flop? and how do we adjust this vs different player pools?

I'd fold flop v B50, but I don't think calling is the worst thing in the world.

Turn call is definitely the biggest mistake in the hand.