Quote:
Originally Posted by newguyhere
What evidence do we have he's a fish? B50 is an acceptable size and the more often used size OTR between B50 and B150.
It's likely they 3bet AK pre so I think it really comes down to if they call flop with JJ. If they do then we can jam since we have 40% equity when called by JJ,88,AQs-AJs,A8s,AQo-AJo
I'm going off the assumption that his preflop play makes it more likely he is a fish, also his goofy min3bet OTR (all things being equal if someone cold calls your raise IP they are more likely to be a fish than not).
If he is a regular then I'd X flop 3 ways.
If I didn't know if he was a fish/regular and I got to the river this way then I would still jam. This is a good hand to illustrate the concept that you laid out, the one where you don't need >50% equity to profitably jam.
Preflop data from regs: Reg CC probability by position.
Preflop data from fish: Fish CC probability by position.
We can use Bayes theorem to figure out the probability of this player being a fish.
Math here:
6%x80%+23%x20% = .094 = random player cold calling BTN.
P = 23%x20%/9.4% = ~49% chance he is a fish.
I didn't realize it was this low but given all the information I still shove.
Last edited by DooDooPoker; 04-13-2024 at 03:10 PM.