Why is holdem manager is saying this call is EV- ? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Why is holdem manager is saying this call is EV- ?

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11-06-2010 , 11:13 AM

MaskedManQc

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 620

The Vilain is raising 19% against steal from BB.
I think that AJo is a more than decent call against this range.
I am 43% vs 57% vs this specific hand preflop.
I get 42% pot odds.

This sounds like EV+ for me... but HM is writing EV $ diff as a negative value here... ???

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($25)
SB ($11.85)
BB ($10)
UTG ($35.20)
MP1 ($15.05)
MP2 ($20.20)
Hero (CO) ($25.10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J

, A

3 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, BB raises to $10 (All-In), Hero calls $8.50

Flop: ($20.25) 4

, Q

, 5

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($20.25) Q

(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($20.25) A

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $20.25 | Rake: $1

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11-06-2010 , 11:28 AM

Messenjupp

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,329

just because someone resteals 19% doesnt mean he's always shoving with 19% of hands. about what sample size are we talking about by the way and do you have any more reads? in general without a read I dont like it that much. I would probably call with AQs+ and TT but nothing more.

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11-06-2010 , 11:39 AM

MaskedManQc

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 620

Quote:

Originally Posted by Messenjupp

I played 731 hands with the Vilain.
The Vilain is a shortstacker, so resteals will be All-in most of the time.

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11-06-2010 , 11:57 AM

Garon

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,261

Play the 100bb tables and you won't have to worry about that, you'll actually learn how to play the whole game, and you'll get better faster.

Garon

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11-06-2010 , 11:57 AM

trob888

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,403

Im not sure exactly how HEM calculates ev, if they just do it by how much you put in on each street they could think you put in 10 to win 20 instead of 8.5. you can figure it out by what they tell you your ev was if you really want to

fwiw you shouldnt be this obsessed with your HEM aiev

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11-06-2010 , 12:49 PM

ZAndlamb

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 321

EV diff has nothing to do with whether or not whatever you did was +/-EV, but how much of the pot you won @ showdown compared to your equity at the moment you got it all in. Say we get it in /w AA vs TT ott on AT72r in 50nl bvb 100bb deep, villian has 1 out when we get it in and binks it otr in a $100 pot. Our equity ott was 97.727% meaning $97.727 of the pot was ours but we lost, so hem will show the ev diff to be -$97.72 (not really since rake has to be removed from the final pot before this calc, but you get the idea).

Oh and stop obsessing /w AIEV, it's a pretty useless stat.

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11-06-2010 , 12:50 PM

MaskedManQc

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 620

You are probably right here. I just wanted to make sure my line of thinking was OK.
I see a lot of difference between HEM EV+ since I play 50NL. There are a lot of short stackers like this and I play depending on the range. I am well above EV maybe because of that, but most of the difference come from these kinds of situations.

Anyway, with the volume I've put lately, guess if I would be totally wrong, my results would'nt be that good.

EV in HEM is more interesting to use on AI EV after the flop. This is where it makes much sense to me.

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11-06-2010 , 01:16 PM

blame_hofmann

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 3,499

HEM's EV analysis is entirely results orientated. It cannot tell you if you made a good call against villain's range, nor does it claim to do so. It simply tells you how well you are running in all-in situations. Here you are running good, because you were entitled to 43% of the pot and yet you won 100% of the pot. Whether or not you made a good call in respect of villain's resteal range is not relevant to this calculation.

Using Pokerstove and some basic maths will tell you if your call was +EV or not.

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11-06-2010 , 01:39 PM

DDAWD

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 6,879

HEM is only telling you the percentage of the time you win your hand. It's not taking into account the villain's stats or how much you have left to call or anything like that. It's not that sophisticated of a stat.

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