Hello all,

Long time reader, new poster.

This is a hypothetical situation of which I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.

Here goes:

You're playing 7 handed, blinds are $5/$10. You are UTG+1. You have played with these people more than 10 times (think 150 hours or so, real life). You used to be a rock and always showed a profit at this game, but now they notice while you're still tight you've loosed up and become more solid.

So, UTG folds and it's up to you. You have AK and open for $30.

Everybody folds to the button, who is now a poker pro, but you've played with him before his bracelet and he never got the best of you. He knows you were tight, tight enough to fold JJ pf on the last hand of a session one night because you were up a fair amount and wanted to leave with your winnings.

This pro simply calls your $30, the blinds fold and we have a flop of:

TKJ

A reasonably nice flop, top pair top kicker, one card off a royal flush, and any heart gives you a nut flush in case you're up against a straight.

The pot is $75 (Your opener, his call, and the folded blinds)

For better or worse, you bet around half the pot, $40 and to your surprise, the pro moves all-in for $200.

Now the pot is $315 and it's back to you, do you call or fold and why?

Further questions:

1. What hand do you put your opponent on given he knows you?
2. Say the flop was 7KJ and the same betting occurred, do you call or fold?

I look forward to hearing your decisions and rationale.

Regards,
pollo

ban

LOL

this post just made me mad enough to cut off my own penis and eat it with some mustard on rye bread

lol +1 and i dont even LIKE rye bread!

wtf is this ****.

fold face up.

JKing. insta call. this is SSNL. you aren't even deep.

No one is a pro poker player until they win a bracelet.

Upon reading further, pros also are shortstack scum.

give me AhQh and i call.

Qh9h i might call.

everything else is a trivial fold.

I decided to run some Monte Carlo simulations (50,000 per hand) given what the opponent would likely be holding in this situation, some of you may find the results interesting, I did.

All percentages given are for your hand's chances.

Hands that beat you

AQ

vs AQ

You will Win: 34.9%
You will Tie: 10.6%
You will Lose: 54.9%

vs A Q

35.1%
10.6%
54.3%

vs AQ

38.8 %
7%
54.2%

vs AQ

38.9%
7%
54.1%

AA

42.6%
10.3%
47.1%

KK

36.7%
0.9%
62.4%

JJ

38.1%
0.9%
61.0%

TT

38.3%
0.9%
60.8%

Q9

Q9

45.6%
0.6%
53.8%

Q9x

45.1%
0.9%
54.0%

Hands that you beat

QQ

QQ (with )

79.4%
0.6%
20.1%

QQ (no )

80.7%
0.3%
19.0%

QJ

QJ

73.5%
0.6%
25.8%

Q Jx

75.5%
0.9%
23.6%

KQ

79.4% (with ), 80% (no )
1.8-2%
18.1% (+.4 for )

QT

75.5%
0.9%
23.6%

KJ

51.2%
1.4%
47.4%

Hands that you tie with

AK

Win: 36%
Tie: 63%

TOTAL

Number of hands that beat you: 6
Number of hands you beat: 6 (includes AK)

Considering that in the number of hands you beat, you'll tie mostly with AK, and KJ is 50/50, the hands you can beat should probably be something like 4.5.

Therefore, calling the $160 is negative EV. (or am I mistaken?)

Regards,
pollo

Man the games really are dead when guys can put this much effort into a level.

this.
anyone saying its a call is MAD