What are your thoughts here??

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HJ ($282.09) [VPIP: 30.9% | PFR: 13.7% | AGG: 37.2% | Hands: 316]
HERO ($470.68) [VPIP: 24.5% | PFR: 19.9% | AGG: 24.5% | Flop Agg: 27.3% | Turn Agg: 24.9% | River Agg: 22.2% | 3Bet: 9.2% | 4Bet: 11.9% | Hands: 5507]
BTN ($204.73) [VPIP: 22.3% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 31.9% | Hands: 355]
SB ($201) [VPIP: 34.1% | PFR: 31.7% | AGG: 25% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 20% | 3Bet: 33.3% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 42]
BB ($206) [VPIP: 27% | PFR: 24.1% | AGG: 47.4% | Hands: 571]
UTG ($499.19) [VPIP: 25.1% | PFR: 20.5% | AGG: 35.9% | Hands: 927]

Dealt to Hero: Q Q

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $4.40, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $19.80, BB Folds, HERO Calls $15.40

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.36 effective]
Flop ($41.60): 6 5 J
SB Bets $20 (Rem. Stack: $161.20), HERO Calls $20 (Rem. Stack: $430.88)

Turn ($81.60): 6 5 J J
SB Bets $25.94 (Rem. Stack: $135.26), HERO Calls $25.94 (Rem. Stack: $404.94)

River ($133.48): 6 5 J J 2
SB Bets $43.06 (Rem. Stack: $92.20), HERO?

Why did you just call QQ from this position? You don't have much hands, but so far they did not play nitty?

Sorry I can only ask a question and not really help with the hand. I would probably minraise but I am a microstakes player.

I typically mix calling and 4 betting QQ here 50/50 CO vs a SB 3 bet unless I have more hands on the person and another factor would simply want to make me always 4 bet them.

Raising flop?

I think this is the worst QQ to call, we have a double unblocker here.

I think that those paired board are underbluffed in general

Raising flop at times yeah. AP you’re advocating folding?

This is probably a lot more info than you want...

I think you're making a pretty big error not 4 betting here.

Reasons to 4b:

1. SB's 3b range is going to be kinda wide here so we should get folds a large portion of the time. When he flats our 4b we're in an extremely good position.
2. By flatting his 3b, we leave SB's range uncapped, meaning he still has AA and KK in his range. An uncapped range is going to be a lot harder to play vs post flop.
3. We're missing a lot of value vs hands like AQ and JJ.
4. By 4betting, we make all our future decisions easier, while making villain's harder. We also make villain tighten up his range. Often what I'll see vs weak players is they'll flat the 4bet and then just shove any equity on the flop, because they don't know how to play that spot.
5. By not 4betting, we let weaker hands see a free flop and miss out on free money from folds.

An argument for not 4betting is that we're not sure how to play vs a 5bet shove. This is a poor excuse though. Let's check the math:

Roughing the math, if we 4bet to $45 and he shoves all in, pot is around $220 and our call is about $130. 130/(130+220)*100=37% so we need to win 37% of the time to call. Against a super nitty 5bet range of AA KK QQ AKs AKo, our QQ has 40% equity so we should call here.


Post flop as played: Villain's bet sizings are very good: small enough to string someone along while still setting up a shove OTR.


Flop: easy call. Since his range is uncapped we can't raise.

Turn: Probably a GTO call. I'm finding some folds though because low stakes players have few bluffs here.

River: Same as turn. We really only beat air bluffs, maybe some weird hands like TT that took this line. The problem is it's a $43 call to win a $220 pot so we only need to win ~20% of the time.

Notice that if we had 4bet all our decisions become easier. He 5bet jams? Easy call because we are winning just enough. He flats the 4bet? Value bets for days because AA and KK are no longer in his range and we're happy to get it in even when the J pairs.

TLDR: should have 4bet. As played post flop lines are fine. From a GTO perspective we're probably just calling all streets post flop. But exploitatively, we can find some folds here because low stakes players have much more value combos than bluffs.

Lemme know if any of my logic is flawed.

I did just realize that this is NL200, so people are probably good enough to find the right amount of bluffs in this line.

Probably blocking value here is less relevant than unblocking bluff. Villan is never bluffing with both Qc Qd because from is prospective he is unblocking your value.

We are unblocking all the combo of AsKs, AhKh, AsQs, AhQh, KsQs, KhQh that I suppose should be his bluff here (not sure about that).

That being said, I click call

we have to call river now as we only need to be good 19%.
We either
- 4bet pre or
- raise flop

After calling flop we are more or less pot committed as long as no A or K comes on the turn

Is there really a difference in EV between 4 betting/calling PF or raising/calling flop? I know it makes life just easier in keeping frequencies pure from a strategy standpoint, but I don't know from an EV standpoint if it makes much difference.

MiddleAgedMF, interested on your thinking process here, what did you do on the river?

I just called, he had quads, so saved some money fortunately. I don’t know if shipping here would be terrible either. I mean in this hand it obviously would be. But he probably doesn’t put me on the OP and not a ton of Jx in my range, so a ship may get calls from TT or 99.

You don't need to build a flop raising range at all on most boards in position in 3bet pots when facing a 1/2pot or bigger c-bet (assuming 100bb stacks). So I don't think that's great advice unless you know he's a rec (and even then, given his stats he's more likely the kind of rec I'd flat against to let them keep bluffing). Flop is the only decision point in the hand where your flat is definitely correct; all the other ones could be fine also but there's a solid argument for raising.

Preflop depends on the reg to fish ratio in your pool and what if anything you've seen of this guy, but in general I'd be thinking in terms of trying to resolve the reg fish contradiction in the most efficient way possible. So for this hand that would be, I don't know which he is, but if he's a reg I'd be mixing since they're ostensibly equal EV (maybe flatting slightly superior in practice), and if he's a rec I'll really want to 4-bet, so unless he's almost certainly a reg the highest EV line across all possibilities will be 4betting.

I think river I'd ultimately end of flatting but its close enough that I'd raise if you had AA here. Turn is interesting because you can potentially raise really small to deny equity from overs etc as well as get some value, but I'm not sure if its worth it