Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
You are correct that texture matters but only certain textures, and turn flush complete isn't one of them. The filters/textures that show massive deviations from the aggregate are 4 to flush/4 to straight 1 gap and no gap. Every other texture is only slightly over bluffed/underbluffed relative to overall.
I have XC30-Donk75-Bet Ranges. For B100 the fish are 50 weak.
You are saying that the turn to flush filter goes from 50 weak to below 33 weak? Based on everything I've studied in MDA there's just very little chance in my mind of that being true.
I'm still not 100% confident that I am right (more like 95%) so I'll try to get better data with more accurate sizing's/exact filters but I don't think folding is the correct play here.
My data for XC30-B70-B is very similar. What's weird is that B50-B100 (37) and B100-B100 (34) are WAY less bluffed than B70-B100 (51) for 20-40% flop. I genuinely have no idea why that could be, curious what people think.
B100 turn seems special when it comes to river texture
B50 turn (B70 very similar)
As for the original hand, B50 flop is probably bad, multiway must be bad (no clue by how much), flush turn is actually neutral when river doesn't 4-flush, and pot river after B50 turn is pretty bad. Line is very over bluffed though and there's a chance of beating worse Qx or chopping AQ.
I do wonder what % of the bluffs here come from fish that are spewy enough you'd have a note after 24 hands. If there was a previous hand where villain gave up a reasonable bluff I'd fold here.
Last edited by TripleBerryJam; 02-27-2024 at 06:20 AM.