How often do you raise turn?


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.5(BB)
HERO (163.8BBs)
CO (100BBs) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 20% | Hands: 4]
BTN (118.7BBs) [VPIP: 87.5% | PFR: 41.7% | AGG: 46.9% | Hands: 24]
SB (100BBs) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 8.3% | AGG: 11.1% | Hands: 24]
BB (167BBs) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 47.4% | Hands: 24]

Dealt to Hero: A Q

HERO Raises To 2.5BBs, CO Calls 2.5BBs, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls 1.5BBs

Hero SPR on Flop: [12.19 effective]
Flop (8BBs): 3 5 Q
BB Checks, HERO Bets 3.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 157.5BBs), CO Folds, BB Calls 3.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 160.7BBs)

Turn (15.6BBs): 3 5 Q T
BB Bets 8.2BBs (Rem. Stack: 152.5BBs), HERO Calls 8.2BBs (Rem. Stack: 149.3BBs)

River (32BBs): 3 5 Q T 8
BB Bets 30.4BBs (Rem. Stack: 122.1BBs)

River fold
Never raise a turn unless you have specific read that this sizing is weak.

Turn 3rd to flush is always stronger than River 3rd flush in this line and they are both underbluffed relative to the aggregate.

I don't have MW Fish sims but I'll assume they are slightly stronger so fold river and don't raise turn.

ok cool
thanks guys

vs a fish, almost never with that line and board. Only if they are spewing probing type fish and I have some reads. Outside of that, call turn, fold river.

Interested in results as well.

After thinking about this hand some more I think I call but it's close. We are basically weighing an underbluffed texture vs an overbluffed line

Is this was XC-XC-Donk river I fold always but vs XC-Donk-Bet I think it's a call. I'm basically thinking AcX plays like this at high frequency and never folds flop.

Cool hand.

I'll have them tomorrow

I think there are enough fish who are literally never bluffing the turn to outweigh the amount who slightly overbluff, so i dont want to call.

Good read




I know XC-Donk lines are super weak, but the river sizing threw me off. I would've snap called had he bet less than pot.

I had a hand yesterday where I misplayed it because of this exact reason.

CO limped I isoed OTB K7hh Flop comes T72r 1 heart. CO donks out I call. Turn is 3h. He checks I bet small he calls. River is As. He Donk Jams 2x pot.

I don't have this line but I think I should call here, I ended up folding and he shows J8o.

Thx for the results!

One more thing: The more I study how to play vs Fish donks the more I realize how much we have to look into bet sizing's and how nuanced they are. So here, the Donk50 OTT is a tell that he is weak. Stronger hands will go D100.

We see this in Donk-Bet-Bet lines.

Donk100-Bet-Bet150 = Underbluffed

Donk50-Bet-Bet150 = Overbluffed.

Great stuff ITT

Donk50 vs Donk100 actually looks so obvious now. At what % do you expect it to go from bluff to value? What about Donk65 and Donk75?

My thinking is if you don't have concrete data on a spot and are just going off your experience, you are very likely messing up pretty hard. To identify a leak you first have to recognize you are playing the spot incorrectly, then you have to get data to confirm your suspicions.

It's interesting because the difference between a 5bb winner and a 10bb winner is usually not from the GTO side of poker. And all from the "how well do you play vs fish" side of poker.

I don't have Donk 65/Donk75 but the discrepancy between Donk50 and Donk100 is 5% more bluffing overall in the line I showed. You can probably guesstimate the other sizing's.

Just because he showed up with bluff this one time doesn't meand folding is bad. Even if he bluffs all A3 A5 combos with Ac that's 6 combos and this bb can have any combo of flush.

What about Ac4x/Ac2x? Those all call flop. The fact that he turned a SDV hand like Ac3x into a bluff is more of a reason to call not less of a reason.

Fish fold much less than regs OTF. The higher the VPIP the more likely they call as well.

Even with those 12 combos total of potential bluffs.
You can always find a reason to call if you want to

Putting zero frequency Ac6x-AcJx in his range is going to be a mistake as well.

It's not about potential bluffs per say - it's the the turn donk sizing + potential bluffs + how fish play flops.

We can extrapolate a lot of knowledge from other MDA spots on fish play.

All good if you want to fold though but your argument is not convincing

TEXTURE matters more than anything. I did have data on this years ago, but 1/2 turn bets by fish when the 3rd flush hit followed by 80% or better river bets was a flush an extremely large amount of the time.

One thing we all know about fish is they are playing their hand more than anything else, and that's why TEXTURE is going to matter much more when evaluating their range. The line and sizing is an offshoot of texture.

You are correct that texture matters but only certain textures, and turn flush complete isn't one of them. The filters/textures that show massive deviations from the aggregate are 4 to flush/4 to straight 1 gap and no gap. Every other texture is only slightly over bluffed/underbluffed relative to overall.

I have XC30-Donk75-Bet Ranges. For B100 the fish are 50 weak.



You are saying that the turn to flush filter goes from 50 weak to below 33 weak? Based on everything I've studied in MDA there's just very little chance in my mind of that being true.

I'm still not 100% confident that I am right (more like 95%) so I'll try to get better data with more accurate sizing's/exact filters but I don't think folding is the correct play here.

They under fold and ider raise flop...so more value and more potential bluffs, also this is 4way pot even fish fold more in mw pots.

Trun DB 50 is weak range...ture but still has a lot of nutted hands, both as bluff and weak value hands

River pot size...we can heavily discount weak value hands, so the only question dose slightly over bluffed spot translate to over bluffed river for this sizing? Imho no, most fish will keep bluffing with small size and pot with value.

It's a 3way pot not a 4way pot and BB is last to act so there won't be a ton of discrepancy there. And 50weak is not slightly overbluffed it is heavily overbluffed.

I do want to get a definitive answer (at least for heads up) so I'll do some more research on it.

dose 50% weak mean 50% of turn donking range is weak?
what is weak?

No it means 50% of his river betting range is weak in the XC30-Donk75-Bet100 line.

Weak is defined as low pair or worse.

Well if you're 95% sure, then probably no use discussing.

I'm 100% sure I'm correct though. I mean I studied this data for years when we did Leak Buster, and have updated it over the years. If they bet 1/2 on the turn and then close to pot on river w/ 3 flush boards, they usually have it. If they bet more than 1/2 pot when a 3rd card hits on the turn, and bet river strong, they had it significantly less (they were trying to use the 3rd flush card as a scare card). All of these differences matter. You're making really sweeping generalizations imho. But if you think it's working for you, then carry on.

They have 50% of bluffs??? WOW

No I believe you but I figured out the problem. You and I have completely different definitions of fish. My definition is any non reg player. If I remember correctly, your default definition is a passive player. So it makes sense you come to that conclusion.

Lol yeah it's pretty crazy