Quote:
Originally Posted by itsavest
Thanks for your opinion and you are certainly right with your suggestions about limping, and tightening up in IP. But I cannot believe that the ALL-in EV line can be interpreted as you did it.
Here is my overall graph of almost 100k hands NL50 and a about 3k hands NL100. I admit, I have a downswing recently, but does this graph looks like I should move down to NL25? Either there is something wrong with the EV line or I am the biggest luckbox on the planet.
I can not believe that I run more than 2000$ above expectation over almost 100k hands...
What to think of that?
From that graph, it does look like you are a winner at NL50 (3 PTBB/100 if my calcs are right, equity adjusted, 5.5PTBB/100 non adjusted). Just from your graph, both your showdown and non-showdown winnings are positive, which says to me that you play very well postflop, which probably compensates for preflop leaks. I'd say try to work on that for a little while at NL50 (raising more on the button, more overall positional awareness and preflop aggression), and then move up.
I am 99.9% certain that I am correct about the all in EV interpretation.
I have holdem manager, and if you go to the reports (1st tab) tab under cash games, you can add a stat called $ (EV adjusted) (lefty hand side, click +, under EV stats). This stat tells you how much $ you would have made if you were running at expectation (in all in before the river). So it should be around $3000 in your case, as this is where the all in EV line is at on your graph.
This doesn't necessarily mean you are a giant luckbox hitting 2outers galore! You could just be winning a lot more than your share of standard flips (ie, you won 30 out of the 40 TP vs overs+FD hands, 32/50 QQ vs AK AI pre hands). And it also doesn't count when say you have TPTK and the villain rivers his kicker to make 2pair, and you still had money behind, which would be running bad but not shown in the EV. This could be why it doesn't feel like you are running good.