Quote:
Originally Posted by (.)(.)(.)(.)(.)(.)
Thats true. Optimal play isnt defined by a line in your graph but by the expectation of a certain play. However, a negative redline, even (or especially) against calling stations is usually a sign of not valuebetting thin enough (or its fine if you dont like the variance that thin vbets brings into your game). Its also not like "they wont fold so a cbet is bad.". The wider the preflop range is of a certain player the more you can cbet with air or weak made hands.
This is a true fact at 50NL or above. I really dont think its true 25NL and below. I might be wrong, this is just my humble opinion based on the games Ive played. I think that a higher blue line is the perfect example of good value betting, these people do not fold. Therefor your thin value bets get called on the river and the money is added to your blue line. At 50NL Ive noticed that if you go for a thin 3 streets, most of the regs are finding a fold by the river with a worse top pair hand, not always, but significantly more than at 25NL in my experience. When they fold, you win less money pobviously, but it gets added to redline instead of blue line.
In the example we are discussing here. Heres what I think could be one of the problems for OP. Again just my opinion and could well be wrong...
I think its possible that OP has become slightly polarised with his river betting frequencies, hes either betting hands hes really confident are good, obviously for value, or hes betting his air as a bluff. Those medium strength hands where hes unsure if hes best or not, I suspect he may be checking those back, thus losing money from his blue line because the villain would almost certainly have called with a worse hand(lets be honest they dont fold much do they, lol).
Not that you need to worry too much about balance at these stakes, but good players will pick up on this(if it is indeed a trait of OP). Also it will make you so much harder to play against when you start value betting super thinly, because those guys looking to pick off a bluff from you with 2nd pair because of your obvious aggressive image, will get absolutely owned by your weak top pair hand that just value towned them.
When I first went to 50NL, I played a session that really opened my eyes, it made me stop playing immediately. I had called down a reg twice and successfully caught him bluffing each time. The 3rd time, I did it again, and Called down with an underpair with 2 overcards on the board. This reg showed up with 2nd pair on the river that he bet 3/4 pot for 3 streets knowing I was calling him down light. I got owned pretty badly, I kind of nodded my head in appreciation of the guys play then left the table. I had work to do!