Quote:
Originally Posted by hpidriver
Gotcha, I do agree that your line probably builds the biggest pot while still being ahead. Just curious, would you do the same flat/re-shove with JJ against that BB?
My initial reaction was probably not, because I'm less comfortable trying to induce a 3bet with JJ (basically trapping) and my equity against {JJ+,AK} drops from 47% to 36%.
Calculating the EV for the QQ hand based on my assumptions in the post above (i.e., BB folds 2/3 of the time leaving me HU with BTN who has shoved with a range of {AQ+,TT+} and BB calls 1/3 of the time with a range of {AK,JJ+}), I get an EV of approx. +6bb. Calculating the EV for JJ based on the assumptions, I get an EV of approx. -5bb.
In general, the value from QQ comes from the times when the BB folds, leaving me head's up with the shortie with a relatively wide range and some dead money in the pot, which more than offsets those times when the BB calls and I get it in as a slight dog with QQ. With JJ, I am a slight dog when I get head's up with the BTN (even with the dead money this outcome contributes only a little bit of positive equity) and I am a much bigger dog when BB calls.
To clarify, this is my EV after the BB 3bets and the shortie BTN 4bet shoves (which is what I am hoping for when I flat). It's possible that when I flat and get 3bet from the BB, the shortie BTN might fold, in which case I can make a normal-sized 4bet head's up with the BB (which I think is clearly profitable with QQ against this player, even though in this scenario there is only a negligible amount of dead money in the pot). It's also possible that the BB will just fold, in which case I take QQ to the flop against an aggro shortie with only 24bb behind.
I haven't done the math, but I suspect the latter two scenarios are not profitable enough to make up for the -EV situation I am in when I 5bet with JJ, whereas I don't have to worry about this 5bet shoving with QQ (since it is +EV on its own). So I think a normal 3bet to isolate the BTN is the better move with JJ.