Quote:
Originally Posted by puchium
NL2 FR table which got down to 6handed. This is a funky hand I think it was a really bad play. Villain on 36 hands had a 37/29 and 8.3 on TOT3b. I really didn't give him credit on the check raise b/c he is kind of a maniac and I believe it was just FPS I honestly believed he could be doing that with a K/Q7 or broadway with jack I haven't seen people played that crazy with flush draw but given the stats that was a possibility even though at the time I didn't put him on a flush draw... when the flush came on the turn and he check I honestly believed he didn't hit the flush and then the river was a blank and that bet just looked way too bluffy b/c if he did have a flush he would've wanted me to call and if he had trips he would've valued (even though he might not be thinking that) I really took the bet as a complete bluff but he could've easily called there with T8 or some K7s type of hand. = / I'm new so it's kind of hard to get away from aces but i really don't know. what do you ppl think about this?
Against most villains, I tend to fold this. The problem is that the board should hit most calling ranges big blind, especially ones that are 3betting 8% or more (again, small sample size), so he often has 2-pair and sometimes a set or a flush.
The obviously weird thing about his line is that he checks the turn after raising the flop. When he pots the river after the turn checks through, I think you are correct that his range is very polarized. I think he either has a flush (which was going for a second check raise on the turn) or a set (that decided that you don't have the flush) or it is a bluff. Two-pair would probably make a more modest bet on this board.
Your sample size is too small to say whether this guy is an aggro donk, but if you have a strong read that he is a maniac post flop (and based upon your comments concerning the flop, it sound like you do), you can call here. I think you are behind most of the time, but you only need to be right 30%.
You might want to start a thread on this one. Give more post-flop reads if you have them.