Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzy Fuzz
Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
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#11808252
BB: $6.09 (121.8 bb)
MP: $7.09 (141.8 bb)
Hero (CO): $11.36 (227.2 bb)
BTN: $4.99 (99.8 bb)
SB: $5.02 (100.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A
A
MP raises to $0.15,
Hero raises to $0.65, 2 folds, BB calls $0.60, MP calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.97) 4
Q
K
(3 players)
BB checks, MP checks,
Hero bets $1.70,
BB folds,
MP raises to $5.66 Hero sighs and....
Villain is...
26/18 Afq 45
3bet 7, has never folded to a 3bet 0/2 though.
ATS 24, FvS 67
WTSD 26
WSD 67
Flop check raise 0/7
FvCB 60%
200 hands. seems competent. no real notes/reads.
What is hero's 3bet stat here? If villain is competent, we need to consider how villain perceives hero's 3bet. I think this will greatly impact his 3-bet flatting range preflop, which is critical here.
The problem is that you don't have a good idea of his 3-bet call range, because you have no sample size. Since regs at uNL tend to call 3-bets out of position too much, my guess is that he probably has a flatting range of something like {QQ-22,AQ,KQ,AJ-ATs}. He is most likely 4-betting with AK, but some TAGs are uncomfortable getting it in and will flat with AK, even OOP. Maybe add 4 combos of AK for {QQ-22,AQ,KQ,AJ-ATs,AdTd, + 4 combos of AKo}. That equates to continuing with a 10% range (calling with an 8% and 4-betting 2%).
Since this flop smacks your 3bet range in the face, his check raise is pretty strong. I don't see him doing this with AQ or underpairs. The problem is that he has very few draws here because the K
and Q
are on the board and he should be folding JT preflop (though we can't be certain he actually will). So his means that if the 3bet flatting range described above is correct, his range for check-shoving the flop is probably {KQ,QQ,AdJd,AdTd, + 4 combos of AKo}.
At the end of the day, I think this boils down to how often you think he will flat AK preflop. If you don't think he has AK in his flatting range, then you have 27% equity, short of the 30% you need to call. If you put all of the AKo combos in his range, you have 43% equity and the call is trivial.