Really quick sanity check as I've been running like absolute sht recently so just going over everything. Villain is 29/12 over 17 hands, we gotta go with this right, what if he don't have the A?
I think he can be doing this with a lot of Qx to protect em, also low flushes & sets.
[x] Standard raise & get it in yes? Hoping to see Qx with fd & obv beat some % of the time
Seriously wondering what to do without the A though. Calling flop seems terribad as he's just bombing turn a lot & raising & getting it in on the flop seem like I'm just flipping/way behind.

Cheers, ib4 move to bbv.

I see no reason why this guy would not play low suited connectors. Best case scenario imo:

If he has wider range because he likes suited cards then so be it. Im calling there all day.

edit. He shouldnt even have QJ because he flopped nuts on the flop, so your equility is even beter.

Depending on if he is willing to stack of with top pair type of hand, then raising is fine. Else I am just calling at least two streets.

I don't have that info, all I have is the stats in the op & given them I thought he would be willing to stack tp. Would you be inclined to agree or is the sample size too small?
Once he pot donks the flop I'm expecting him to bomb the turn & if he does I don't feel comfortable calling another big bet then folding on the river, but I never think we're good if he bets the river again, which I think he likely will if he bets turn. As in I feel like we should just fold turn cause he's never not betting river.

Yeah sample size is way too small.

It is hard to do the right thing here without proper reads, since we don't know anything about his donking range and how he reacts to our actions. Raising might fold out Qx, but calling and 4th heart will kill the action on future streets. I think both raising and calling are just fine here. If I call flop, I am propably going to call it all the way.

Cool cool, thanks for the quick replies man.
I'm thinking about just dumping AA with no on this flop vs a psb donk cause if we get it in we're gonna be seriously crushed. We've no backup eq if we wanna take a call down line to save us some $$$ if we have to fold the river after calling big bets otf & turn, so if we're folding river then we should fold turn, which means we should just fold the flop. Folding feels filthy & am thinking that maybe flatting flop & re eval turn based on his sizing, if he bombs again let it go, if he puts in a blocker looking bet then call down & re eval river based on sizing again.
But honestly I don't think folding flop would be a huge mistake. (Without the A)

It is a mistake, if villain is capable donking top pair type of hands.

Definitely. But we don't have any reads to go with so we have to weight his range based on what little info we've got.
Basically he does have Qx sometimes, we just don't know what % of the time, so we should call flop & re eval based on his turn sizing which should tell us a lot about his hand strength.

One more quick line check!
BB is unknown, 20/20 over 5. Coming from full ring I'm just wondering what your standard line here is? Fold turn? Call turn fold river? I guess he could have TT/AQs+, but I dunno how much people tend to 3b TT here, depends on the player I guess.

VS unknown I'll fold the turn.

Then I'll keep an eye on him and watch him get stacked 3bet/barrel bluffing J4o a few hands later.

I'll still stand by the readless fold though.

two hands, standard?









no reads









second hand, villain huge fish but literally my fist hand at the table and villain data mined no history (60/6/6.5) over 114 hands.

h1 fold readless, you're not doing good against a std cold4bet range here.

h2 seems okay

Yeah, cold 4bets=KK+ mostly.

Hand 2: He's very passive pre & he's saying he's got something. I'm tempted to call his tiny 4b & try to suck out on his JJ+ or whatever, rather than just getting it in as a coinflip. But getting it pre in probly isn't awful.

your fold equity vs the 60 whatever is nill but the good thing is he goes broke with all sorts of hands here, i play the same

Party Poker $10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $10.47
BTN: $30.88
SB: $2.93
BB: $10.00
UTG: $10.00
MP: $10.93

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with T K
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) A A T (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, BTN calls $1

River: ($3.75) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.78, Hero calls $1.78

Villain: 28/9/1.6, River aggresion: 6.0/43% after 63 hands...

c/f river

Go a tad bigger on the turn, like $1.25 & c/f then you're good to go. 28/9 guys aren't bluffing they're busted flush draws enough, also they tend to have plenty of Ax in they're range also, but also enough fd's to b/b, but when he tells you he has the A, you can let it go. I don't like to just assume people will bluff their busted draws.
Unless you thought he was betting a worse Ten, very rare imo.

A really quick value check. Villain is 55/9 over 59 hands. I'm pretty sure he won't fold a T on this turn so I opt for a slightly bigger bet, on the river I'm not so sure if he'll call the psb jam with Tx, but he might. He can also have J9 & call with that. And of course, A6/A7/A9/AQ/AK, so I'm thinking betting smaller otr isn't worth it cause:
His Tx might call anyway+his J9/J7/JT/J8 will snap & any A will snap too. Yeah typing this all out now it seems ridic to just try to target the Tx here.

What do you think anyway?

jam river

Anyone have any good links/reads/threads etc for stat analysis? I would like to make stronger inferences from my more specific stats so I can exploit peoples ranges but I don't know where to begin. Thanks.

Thanks,
Nice insight...

Villain: 34/21/2.2 900 hands ...
On the river his bet looks like blocker from TT or JJ ...
Easy shove?

^a bit bigger on each street, especially the turn. I'm shoving the river.

This.

Merge - $0.04 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $1.45
SB: $5.48
BB: $3.83
Hero (UTG): $4.27
MP: $7.06
CO: $3.56

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has Q Q

Hero raises to $0.12, fold, CO calls $0.12, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.30, 2 players) T J 6
Hero bets $0.20, CO calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.70, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, CO bets $0.52, Hero calls $0.52

River: ($1.74, 2 players) K
Hero checks, CO bets $2.72 and is all-in, fold

CO wins $1.66


villian is 20/14 over 60 hands... did I play this hand ok?