Quote:
Originally Posted by dillchips
On hindsight, I guess we could fold flop though. It's a super polarise boar and there's no flush draws out there, so if villain raised we know he should have 22/44 most of the times. That is really optimistic but I can't think if any other way he would plays any othe hands that way with those stats, although not a big sample
Folding TPTK on such a dry board OTF in a SB vs BB situation is super exploitable unless this guy is the world's biggest nit. Do we think he never raises that board with worse?
Although I agree he is more weighted to sets in this spot, he could conceivably raise any queen for value and a range of pocket pairs that he is hoping to get a cheap showdown with, as if you call; the turn/river will often go c/c c/c. Also you see villains make strange raises here "for information". He could of course have a load of air.
When he bets turn, he is surely polarised between queens,sets and air.
However, if he raised a Queen OTF then he may be inclined to think he now has the best hand ( say he assumes you called with KK,AA).
We need at least 42% equity vs his range to make a turn call - which we can find purely by putting him on range consisting of the remaining combinations of AQ, KQ, 22 and 44.
This is without including any air and other queens < KQ.
Unless he is very nitty I think we can continue OTT
I'm not sure what I think of the turn shove TBH, we obviously fold out all his air - but if he is inclined to play the hand this way with 10Q - KQ, then he will probably find a call here.
However, perhaps we could just call and then give him chance to bluff with air.
It may also be conceivable that he could fire a third bullet with a queen that you beat..
But in summary, I don't fold flop or turn. Its a cooler of a spot IMO.