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An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading.

01-02-2007 , 03:27 PM
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An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 03:30 PM
Nice post! One quick addition:

For a reasonable player the bet, check behind, bet pattern can be pot control + value bet rather than missed draw. I do this often. Catch something like TPTK, bet flop, check behind on turn for pot control and then value bet the river when villain checks.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 03:31 PM
Quote:
Quit. Posting.
FYP.
Now the tables will be filled with excellent hand-readers who will raise me off my TPGK every single time.
"Thanks" Pokey.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Nice post! One quick addition:

For a reasonable player the bet, check behind, bet pattern can be pot control + value bet rather than missed draw. I do this often. Catch something like TPTK, bet flop, check behind on turn for pot control and then value bet the river when villain checks.
...also perfect for inducing a bluff.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 03:34 PM
Spot-on. Well done!

(Ignoring the quibble about the exact definition of 2nd-level thinking, of course.)

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As long and detailed as this is, know that I am just giving you the tip of the iceberg, here.
Yep, and all you have to do is internalize all of this plus lots more, and put it into practice playing 6+ tables for hours on end, and hardly ever make big mistakes, and YOU TOO can make EZ MONIEZ as a poker professional!!
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 04:01 PM
too short, not detailed enough.

Where are the practical techniques for holding ranges in your head?

Where is the strategy for playing against level 0.5 thinkers (who always put you on AK after a preflop raise), or level 1.5 thinkers, (who think you always put them on AK)? Surely that should have been included in section 5, subparagraph 1 !!!!

Where is the discussion of Bayes' Theorum, and how to apply it on each street given the new information we have gathered?

Given it's limited scope, a fairly decent post.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 04:20 PM
higher_energy said:

Quote:

why would you write all of this?

Because sometimes the world doesn't revolve around me. I've learned most of what I know about poker from 2+2, and I enjoy giving back to the community that has given me so much.

Speedlimits said:

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Nice post pokey but one aside on the different levels of thinking. According to Sklansky in NLHTAP, Zero level thinking is when you only think about your hand, 1st level thinking is when you think about your opponents hand and what he may have and 2nd level thinking is what you think your opponents think you may have.

Yeah, I was also quite surprised that Sklansky got that wrong.

silly_monkey said:

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What do you think about passive players making weak flop donkbets? I think this almost always means a weak one pair hand and I find that a raise nearly always picks up the pot.

As I mentioned somewhere in that monster, donkbets on the flop usually mean "I can beat ace-high." Whether that, in turn, means that you can easily steal the pot with a raise, or whether you'll need to float it out to the turn, or if that means that he's going to call you down all the way to showdown with his crap, will all be player-specific. I can't stress enough the value of watching your opponents to try and spot their personal quirks and habits. As a VERY GENERAL rule I'd say that a flop donkbet from a passive player is usually weak, because they tend to slowplay their monsters with either a check-raise or a check-call. Whether they will then RELEASE their small hand can only be answered on a case-by-case basis.

Bowlboy said:

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could I possibly ask you to elaborate somewhat on a players range of hands according to position. e.g, villain with 30% vpip and 15% PFR, raises in MP as opposed to OTB or UTG.

In general, I think you hit the nail on the head when you said that this doesn't matter much at uNL. For most uNL players, AJo UTG = AJo on the button = AJo. Positional awareness is a more advanced skill and it's beyond most of the uNL opponents you will face. The two exceptions to this rule would be blind stealing and UTG. Most players know to play "a bit tighter" UTG, and so don't limp as much AND DON'T RAISE AS MUCH from UTG. Similarly, some players are aware enough to try and steal blinds when they are in late position. Beyond that, however, I don't remember many players who had much in the way of positional awareness. When you spot a player who IS positionally aware, I'd make a note on them about it -- that's useful information. At that point, adjust your numbers accordingly -- a limp or raise from UTG will be somewhat stronger than their usual range indicates, and a limp or raise from LP will be somewhat weaker. Don't expect a monumental difference, however -- it's going to be maybe plus-or-minus 5%.

AliasMrJones said:

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For a reasonable player the bet, check behind, bet pattern can be pot control + value bet rather than missed draw.

Yes, but I wrote this guide for uNL, and there is a remarkable lack of "reasonable players" in the pool. Your line is a strong one, very valuable, effective, and useful because it's so non-standard. Simply put, your line works because normal players would never think to play a hand that way.

ticks said:

Quote:
Quote:

Quit. Posting.

FYP.

Ooops! Sorry, ticks!

To everyone else:

Thanks for the feedback, and I'm glad you've enjoyed it.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 04:36 PM
Wow, great post! Definitely the most helpful one created since I've been a member.

Can we add this to the sticky?
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 05:01 PM
Pokey.

More so than usual.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 05:05 PM
my first response was not what it seems

all i was trying to say is that this was a very comrehensive guide and that OP definetly put a ton of time into this.
its just rare to find something like this on the internet.
also, seeing that the learning curve in poker is very steep, by posting this pokey is teaching a lot of things to a number of people that browse this forum...
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 05:32 PM
Absolutely great!

I'm a 6 max limit player transistioning to $25 nl. I've really struggled with a playing style in nl. I was 27/15 to 31/21 2.5-3.5 limit. I've found myself playing 13/30/1.5 Much more passive preflop trying to see flops cheap and trappy/aggressive postflop.

Thank you, this will help tremendously pre-flop and post flop especially with when to put the brakes on.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 05:36 PM
Great stuff Pokey, thanks for making this.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 05:45 PM
I'm certain this will be useful to everyone, but to a noob like myself, this is FANTASTIC. Thank you, Pokey!
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 05:46 PM
Quote:
why would you write all of this?
Ban this idiot.

Pokey-
Thanks for taking the time. As always, instant classic.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 05:47 PM
Quote:
my first response was not what it seems

all i was trying to say is that this was a very comrehensive guide and that OP definetly put a ton of time into this.
its just rare to find something like this on the internet.
also, seeing that the learning curve in poker is very steep, by posting this pokey is teaching a lot of things to a number of people that browse this forum...
So you say he shouldn't have written this so that the random fish won't learn? Eat your head.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 05:55 PM
Great post! One question though about the PFR "sliding scale:

Quote:
a passive preflop player has a PFR under a quarter of their VPIP. That means that this is a floating scale: while 10% PFR is passive for a player who has a VPIP of 55%, it is aggressive for a player who has a VPIP of 15%.
Why does it matter how PFR relates to VPIP? In either case, the player is raising 10% of his hands. Why is a loose player who raises 10% of his hands considered less aggressive than a tight player who raises 10% of his hands?

I would think they would be considered equally aggressive, or in a sense the loose player is more aggressive because the sheer number of hands he's raising is higher than the tighter player.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 06:23 PM
Thank you for a very helpful post, and just the subject I am working on at the moment.

I get somewhat different percentages for the monotone flop. If you don't have any of the suit villain has a made flush (10/47)(9/46) = 0.042 or 4.2% of the time and he no cards of the suit(37/47)(36/46) = 0.616 or 61.6% of the time. He has a flush draw the remaining 34.2% of the time.

This just makes your point stronger, he is playing flush draw 8 times as often as a made flush and you should definitely bet on this board often.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 06:26 PM
This post is amazing
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 07:09 PM
PotatoStew said:

Quote:

Why does it matter how PFR relates to VPIP? In either case, the player is raising 10% of his hands. Why is a loose player who raises 10% of his hands considered less aggressive than a tight player who raises 10% of his hands?

In a sense, you're absolutely right: given that a player has raised preflop, it doesn't matter too much whether he's a 60/10 or a 15/10 (other than a 60/10 is probably an inferior player, and therefore more likely to make bigger postflop mistakes). However, the difference between a passive and an aggressive player is huge when the player is still to act. Another big difference comes when you get REraised -- a 60/10 probably three-bets less often than a 15/10, because a 60/10's natural inclination would be to smooth-call. A 15/10 has an aggressive mindset and behaves accordingly; a 60/10 has a passive mindset. The differences are subtle, but important.

Esmerelda said:

Quote:

I get somewhat different percentages for the monotone flop. If you don't have any of the suit villain has a made flush (10/47)(9/46) = 0.042 or 4.2% of the time and he no cards of the suit(37/47)(36/46) = 0.616 or 61.6% of the time. He has a flush draw the remaining 34.2% of the time.

You're absolutely right, and I absolutely screwed that one up. Thanks -- that was a good catch.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 07:34 PM
i got one of the logitech mice with the free spin wheel, and this post is awesome for it.

also, this post is A++++ in general. Perfect timing for me after dropping several buyins yesterday. w00t!
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 08:41 PM
Quote:

Esmerelda said:

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I get somewhat different percentages for the monotone flop. If you don't have any of the suit villain has a made flush (10/47)(9/46) = 0.042 or 4.2% of the time and he no cards of the suit(37/47)(36/46) = 0.616 or 61.6% of the time. He has a flush draw the remaining 34.2% of the time.

You're absolutely right, and I absolutely screwed that one up. Thanks -- that was a good catch.
Well, the thing is I think you backdoored your way to a more useful number somehow, because Villain isn't gonna treat his 2 or whatever as a useful flush card, in general. So if you say "broadway flush draw" or "J+ flush draw" I think you'd be close with your original number which meshed well with my intuition. Somebody less lazy than me, feel free to do the exact math.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 10:38 PM
As always Pokey, amazing post. Give up whatever your day job is, write a book.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-02-2007 , 10:45 PM
Thanks Pokey, I've been looking for something like this.

Quote:
Give up whatever your day job is, write a book.
Can I pre-order?
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-03-2007 , 07:26 AM
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote
01-03-2007 , 07:52 AM
I felt i have somehow developed a somewhat similar understanding myself, but to have it put into exact words by a good player and writer was still very helpful.

excellent post.
An Unbelievably Long Guide to Hand-Reading. Quote

      
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