Turning 3rd pair into a bluff otr - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Turning 3rd pair into a bluff otr

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12-04-2021 , 08:40 AM

Franchise804

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Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 7,128

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.50(BB)
UTG (128.3)
HJ (111.7)
CO (39.9)
HERO (122.9)
SB (245.2)
BB (206.2)

Dealt to Hero: J

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To 4 BBs, CO Folds, HERO Raises To 10.5 BBs, SB Folds, BB Folds, HJ Calls 6.5

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.5 effective]
Flop (22.5): A

HJ Checks, HERO Checks

Turn (22.5): A

HJ Bets 10.7 (Rem. Stack: 90.5), HERO Calls 10.7 (Rem. Stack: 101.7)

River (43.9): A

HJ Checks, HERO is all in

Trying to think of worse hands we have here: 54s, 87s, TT-99

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12-04-2021 , 09:24 AM

Haizemberg93

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Its not like you have ton of value for jam, 3 combos of QQ and some KTs, AQs, 9Ts but that cbets flop a lot, so just bluffing draws with no SDV will be enough.
Maybe as exploit you can jam and he folds almost everything, but im not sure he opened for 4bb so looks fish in general i would not try to bluff that type of player.

GTOWizard likes your line of jamming otr(not exactly the same spot) so gg

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12-04-2021 , 12:15 PM

JohnRusty

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Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 2,755

We win too often at showdown IMO. Turn stab is gonna be a random underpair that gave up somewhat often, or maybe something like Th9h, especially from someone who opens for 4bb (unless there’s a fish at the table you’re not telling us about).

Also im not quite sure of the merits to 3-betting this particular character pre. We have to have close to 0 fold equity, and I can’t imagine this is a good 3-bet if that’s the case

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12-04-2021 , 02:19 PM

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,584

Quote:

Originally Posted by Haizemberg93

I think the whole don't bluff fish idea is pretty overrated. We want to bluff fish more than regs because they have weaker ranges. Also just because they call loose preflop doesn't mean they call overbet jams OTR more often. It might even be less. Even fish can figure out what nut hands are OTR.

I wouldn't be surprised if this guy is range folding vs a jam here.

NH Franchise, creative play.

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12-04-2021 , 02:27 PM

newguyhere

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Population folds to river bets 121% and higher at around 75%

Fish - 75.6
Whales - 68

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12-04-2021 , 02:30 PM

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,584

Quote:

Originally Posted by newguyhere

Population folds to river bets 121% and higher at around 75%

Fish - 75.6
Whales - 68

Thanks for the data Newguy. What's the hand sample on that?

Do you have reg data on that stat? I'm assuming it's higher than 75% since the Whales bring down the %.

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12-04-2021 , 02:46 PM

newguyhere

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Thanks for the data Newguy. What's the hand sample on that?

Do you have reg data on that stat? I'm assuming it's higher than 75% since the Whales bring down the %.

I can filter to only hands where population faced a river bet of 121%+, and it's about 4,000 hands. But it doesn't break down by player type when filtered.

Paging FreakDaddy... Is it possible when running a population report for the stats to show opportunities/sample size.

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12-04-2021 , 03:11 PM

Haizemberg93

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Just because he has weaker range doesn't mean he will fold enough. There are definitely spots where you can bluff fish very effectively, but it's usually on earlier streets.

I think range fold is bit unreasonable, ofc i can't prove that, but if we play this spot 100 do we really see fold every time? I think it's more likely we see random call from Qx then fold 100%.

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12-04-2021 , 03:57 PM

Yeodan

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 3,621

Could someone explain why we want to turn our hand into a bluff here?
I would just check behind with SDV and expect to win often.

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12-04-2021 , 03:59 PM

#10

Franchise804

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Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 7,128

Thanks for everyone's replies. Am I on the right track insofar as picking out our worst hands is concerned?

If so, we have 2 PSB left otr and in theory land I dont think we should be betting the same amount with each of these hands because of blocker considerations.

Getting into the weeds here so all good if we dont want to, but though it was worth mentioning.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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12-04-2021 , 04:15 PM

#11

TRUSTtheDRAWCESS

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 2,775

Interesting spot, I am inclined to think this is a good choice of bluff blocking various things, but I'm not super sure what the solver wants as an overall strategy. I'm going to check Wizard, though you are a big deepr than its 100bb ranges.

Interesting as Haziemberg noted, it does really like your line. I found it interesting to see how the equities change so much OTT when you check. I wouldnt think they do so much after an x when you are supposed to check alot.

Maybe a better player can read more into this sim than me.

Flop:

Turn:

River:

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12-04-2021 , 04:22 PM

#12

Yeodan

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 3,621

Also, my sim is only checking behind on the flop 24% of the time and almost never (3.55%) with our specific combo.
Don't have GTO ranges for these sizes though.

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12-04-2021 , 04:39 PM

#13

DooDooPoker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Yeodan

Could someone explain why we want to turn our hand into a bluff here?
I would just check behind with SDV and expect to win often.

SDV isn't binary though, it's more like a sliding scale - we can't have a worse hand here other than than some 77 type hand.

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12-04-2021 , 04:40 PM

#14

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,584

Quote:

Originally Posted by newguyhere

Interesting. Hopefully FD comes in and saves the day

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12-04-2021 , 04:43 PM

#15

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,584

Quote:

Originally Posted by Haizemberg93

Range folding was a slight exaggeration but I'd expect a lot of folds to make it higher EV than checking back.

If we phrase the scenario of folding 100% of the time or calling with a random Queen 1 out of 100 times - I agree it is more likely that he calls with Qx.

But if we drop it to a more reasonable 80% threshold I don't think that is true.

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12-04-2021 , 05:11 PM

#16

Haizemberg93

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GTOwizard folds like 85% in this spot folding hands as strong as AQ, so at 80% of folds we might still be better off checking.
We need 70% of folds from hands that beat us to have EV(JAM)>EV(CHECK)

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12-04-2021 , 08:13 PM

#17

IbleedUdry

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2021 Posts: 1

Quote:

Originally Posted by newguyhere

I can filter to only hands where population faced a river bet of 121%+, and it's about 4,000 hands. But it doesn't break down by player type when filtered.

thanks for sharing!

I think a "fold river to xyz%ps bet" isn't a very accurate filter. It is important how the turn was played.
There are a couple turn-filters that I would add to make the output more useful:
1) The player, facing the River bet, called a bet on the Turn
2) The player, facing the River bet did bet the Turn oop and skipped a River barrel.
3) Palyers on the Turn = 2

Scenario 1 and 2 are very different. It would not shock me to see a 20-30% difference in fold-frequency in nash.

Regards,
IbleedUdry

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12-05-2021 , 01:21 AM

#18

aner0

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Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,673

Very good vs normal people obviously.

Yes you have a tiny bit of sdv(minuscule), but this is supposed to get so many folds that It doesn't matter. Also i dont think its close

But, 4x pre means whale and Ace heavy range, and whales dont fold top pairs, which makes It a lot Closer

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12-06-2021 , 01:54 AM

#19

submersible

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 1,585

looks ok to me

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