Villain is a 20/17 reg. I don't have any notes or reads on him.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 149.3 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 104.2 BB
CO: 106.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, BTN calls 9.5 BB

Flop: (24.5 BB, 2 players) 3 5 A
Hero bets 5.8 BB, BTN raises to 21 BB, Hero calls 15.2 BB

Turn: (66.5 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (66.5 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 67 BB and is all-in


I've looked at this hand with gtow, and my hand is pure calling in equilibrium. But the solver is jamming with worse TP (AJ, AT) and bluff shoving with 3rd pairs (88, 77, 66).

I have a hard time believing this is happening in practice though, so I only have a bluffcatcher here.

I would love to hear your thoughts.

This is research nl25-50.

Caller 3BP IP. Raise-Check-Bet line:


I'm not sure about the tendencies of the NL10 pool, but it seems like opponents might be capable of bluffing with their low pocket pairs in this situation.

So I think a call is okay on this board.

that's interesting, really good to know, thanks

Flop (I have no evidence to support this) but I'd guess Mr. 20/17 at 10nl is heavier on gutshots, flush draws, AQ, and 2p+. If true that probably incentivizes your hand to 3-bet OOP. River they get some Qx 2nd pair so checking only seems good if you assume they over bluff.

I would literally never fold to this river jam since all our bluffs should fire vs this very weak line. Your analysis seems quite biased, you're fixating on a few bluffs that are slightly harder to find, and assuming they ALWAYS make a huge blunder and check back AJ.

I can see how they'd have significantly more value if they reflexively check back turn too often with AQ and 2p+ because they see 4-straight, even though you don't have much 4x.

I was going to say something similar, but you saved me the time. ty.

Not thrilling, but I'd call. Also would consider jamming the flop, and would bet the river myself.