Villain runs at 28/13/2.8 over 425 hands. He c/r-ed me a while back with tpgk on the flop and then checked down. I stacked him my earlier when my combo draw hit over his flopped straight so he may be pissed about that still. No other notes than that.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN): $95.95
SB: $42.50
BB: $53.15
UTG: $52.45
MP: $57.00
CO: $17.70

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with Q T
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, SB calls $2, 1 fold, CO calls $1.75

Flop: ($7.25) 9 T 6 (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $7.25, SB raises to $21, CO folds, Hero....

He has over half his stack in, and you aren't ahead of much except JQ or 10J? It's a tough spot with his history and playing style tho.

This is so player/read dependant situation. I would bet less on the flop, tho.

Well I beat alot more than top pair if he is doing this with draws. Since I have seen him do this with top pair, there is no reason for me to believe he wouldnt do this with a strong draw also.

The reason I bet so big on the flop is that there are a ton of bad turn cards so I would rather charge the max to any of them. Also, alot of those cards kill my action from other top pair hands.

Muck it imo, but it's probably close. If you're beat, you're beat bad, but most draws here will have at least 40% equity, especially if he has overcard(s). Only hand you really crush that he might do this with is JT.

What draws do villains routinely play like this? Do we mean monster draws or normal 8-9 outers?

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We need 40% equity to shove - I've done some Stoves and really, it's tough to find that 40%:

Board: 9c Ts 6s
Hand 0: 41.317% { QsTd }
Hand 1: 58.683% { TT-99, 66, AsKs, ATs, KsQs, KTs, QJs, JTs, ATo, KTo, QJo, JTo }

That's pretty optimistic IMO as we can't say he plays the hand like this with JT or JQ that often I don't think and AK repops pre a fair amount.

Against a more realisitc range of say {sets, KT+} we are toast. Throw in JT and we are still shy equity-wise. Putting in one random air combo does make it evens though, so I guess a read matters somewhat.

But I fold and feel fine about it. I also cb a wee bit less. I think $6 = $7.25 here.

Im not sure what draws he plays routinely like this but I got most of my stack from this guy in no more than 6 or 7 orbits with the last one being a suck out when my combo draw beat his flopped nut straight. I just think there is a chance that can influence things, maybe not though.

Okay this range has no air at all for villain. It has a decent number of top pair hands but I removed a few random ones here and there. It includes all reasonable draws. I am just short of 40% here, but again, I took out a number of top pair combos. I gave him all suited aces as he seems a little loose-ish so those are probably in his blind calling range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

52,470 games 0.042 secs 1,249,285 games/sec

Board: Ts 6s 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.262% 32.63% 06.63% 17123 3478.00 { QsTd }
Hand 1: 60.738% 54.11% 06.63% 28391 3478.00 { TcTd, TcTh, TdTh, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 6c6d, 6c6h, 6d6h, AsQs, AsJs, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsJs, KcTc, KdTd, KhTh, QcJc, QcTc, QhTh, JcTc, JdTd, JhTh, Tc9c, Td9d, Th9h, 9s8s, 87s, AcTh, AdTc, AdTh, AhTc, AsTc, AsTh, KcTh, KdTc, KdTh, KhTc, KsTc, KsTh, QdJc, QhJc, QhJd, QcTh, QdTc, QdTh, QhTc, JcTh, JdTc, JdTh, JhTc, JsTc, JsTh }


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I bet a bit less on the flop and dump it vs a raise. There's a few 2-pairs possible, a bunch of sets, maybe a better Tx and if has has a draw it often has ~40% eq. Besides it 3-ways and people tends to be less inclined to semi-bluff esp being oop. I would need a really good read villain is frustrated and do spazzy things to not fold here, this hand is just ain't strong enough.