Thoughts on the river?

NL Holdem 2(BB)
BB ($184.55) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 17.4% | AGG: 42.9% | Hands: 23]
HERO ($208) [VPIP: 24.7% | PFR: 20.1% | AGG: 24.5% | Flop Agg: 27.9% | Turn Agg: 23.3% | River Agg: 22.7% | 3Bet: 9% | 4Bet: 11.6% | Hands: 6491]
HJ ($525.27) [VPIP: 43% | PFR: 13.9% | AGG: 18.7% | Hands: 79]
CO ($605.86) [VPIP: 30.5% | PFR: 3.1% | AGG: 28.4% | Hands: 134]
BTN ($380.48) [VPIP: 21.4% | PFR: 14.1% | AGG: 35.3% | Flop Agg: 34.2% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 40% | 3Bet: 5% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 20% | Hands: 240]
SB ($200.11) [VPIP: 26.4% | PFR: 7.1% | AGG: 30% | Hands: 248]

Dealt to Hero: Q K

HERO Raises To $4.40, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls $4.40, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [17.25 effective]
Flop ($11.80): K 6 3
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $8 (Rem. Stack: $368.08), HERO Calls $8 (Rem. Stack: $195.60)

Turn ($27.80): K 6 3 9
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $22 (Rem. Stack: $346.08), HERO Calls $22 (Rem. Stack: $173.60)

River ($71.80): K 6 3 9 6
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $102 (Rem. Stack: $244.08), HERO?

When I saw the title I thought the answer would definitely be "fold" but looking at the hand I want to call because he's repping so thin given his big and presumably polarizing flop bet.

First off these stakes are way above what I play so keep that in mind.

I would c-bet flop. Their range is capped although Vs 3! Is only 5% but that’s still includes all AK. Obviously they will have 66 in this spot but there are a lot more flush draws in range. As played call seems fine.

Turn is so polar. This size is screaming I want to get folds or I have 66 and don’t want to give a good price to be out drawn. Call seems fine again as again you’re still ahead of all the draws.

The 6 on the river obviously reduces the combos of sets. I’m leaning towards a call. I there are so many missed flushes in Vs range that have no showdown value that would take this line. There are a few combos of 6cX that we now lose too. Now if the player pool bluffs enough here I don’t know. 2NL I can get behind a fold. But this player looks like a TAG and therefore should be able to make that play.

Really interesting spot. I agree with Jam Adebayo. I think if there is any runout we want to call its this one with the 6 blocking his sets. He probably shouldn't have 99 with his flop bet, and does K9 jam now?

I think im calling here thinking about. Though I am going to check GTO Wizard, with the expectation of it calling atleast all KT+.

Alright so the sizings are a bit off. On the turn it he only really uses an OB sizing in the sims, only 1% 75% sizing. Then OTR his biggest sizing is 84% pot other than jam. I have both below.

The thing I find crazy is it starts folding some strong suited Kx ott vs only 75% bet.

Very interesting, thanks for taking the time to run all this!!

In a recent Patrick Howard video he talked about basically range checking flops when you have a caller that has position on you.

Flop and turn look good.

Riv is kind funny spot. I would fold riv. Runout is so good for bluff catching that's bad.

Interesting. I sometimes watch a streamer who has a similar strategy.

I don’t think I could implement that strategy as I’m not very good .

That's good advice about Xing range oop vs caller, but he also says provocative crap like having to check and read sims doesn't 'add anything valuable to the conversation' and that we shouldn't be demanding graphs off coaches because its financially not worth their time to grind. Which is, alright to an extent true but hardly an absolute like he makes out. Solver inputs are almost always interesting and coaches should definitely be able to prove their worth unless they're a known crush machine.


Find it very difficult not to call this TPGK on super dry runnout.

Yeah I take noting anyone says as gospel truth, but I generally strive for easy to implement strategies where I can, and that one does make sense to me against an unknown. Against some one I know is a station or is apt to be a non believer that’s different. Or against someone who stabs when too much when X'd to. I start with a pretty pure generally strategy and then deviate from there when I get notes and reads. Nothing on this guy in my notes yet so just went for the X.