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Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold?

10-24-2008 , 03:36 AM
Villain is 68/32 over 100 hands. I was playing 22/18. Villain had pushed some light holdings pretty aggressively on previous hands.

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $2.00
BTN: $28.90
SB: $11.10
Hero (BB): $10.65
UTG: $5.65

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with T K
1 fold, CO calls $0.10, BTN calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.40) Q J 6 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, CO folds, BTN raises to $0.60, SB folds, Hero raises to $1.90, BTN calls $1.30

Turn: ($4.20) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $4, BTN calls $4

River: ($12.20) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.10
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 03:41 AM
Im making it $2.5 on the flop and shoving any turn.
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 05:19 AM
OOP with a draw i would prefer c/c most of the time, i'll be more incline to bet the draw in position. cause if u missed yr gonna have a little bit of trouble, and if he raise u are still paying more for it, also u have to see the bet size and calculate the implied odds to justify yr call.
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 05:31 AM
If you really don't want to give up, then bet around half pot or so on the end and hope he also was on a draw and will fold.
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 05:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Navie
OOP with a draw i would prefer c/c most of the time, i'll be more incline to bet the draw in position. cause if u missed yr gonna have a little bit of trouble, and if he raise u are still paying more for it, also u have to see the bet size and calculate the implied odds to justify yr call.
c/c line is terrible here.
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 05:45 AM
Shove or Fold? You have like $6 invest in this pot so far. If you were going to shove you shouldn't have checked. Once he bets $3 on the end, he's not going to fold to your shove even with air (it's like $1 for him to call if you shove). Point is you're only shoving your remaining $4

I agree, you cannot c/c the river.

Last edited by Margaud; 10-24-2008 at 05:59 AM. Reason: added my point
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Navie
OOP with a draw i would prefer c/c most of the time, i'll be more incline to bet the draw in position. cause if u missed yr gonna have a little bit of trouble, and if he raise u are still paying more for it, also u have to see the bet size and calculate the implied odds to justify yr call.
OOP you're going to want to get the money in with a strong draw ASAP to maximize your fold equity, get equity for 12-15 outs over two streets, and because it sucks to play OOP so you want to neutralize your opponent's positional advantage. A c/c line just gives the initiative in the hand to your opponent, you have to make your hand to win, and you often won't get paid off if you hit.

In position, you can mix up your play a little bit depending on who your playing against; i.e., you might check behind on the flop if you're against a 70/5/.2 who's going to call you down with BPNK until he's all in because there's no point in semi-bluffing when you'll get paid off 90% of the time when you hit on the turn/river.
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 10:47 AM
Raising to $2.5 as someone suggested and shoving the turn wouldn't have been bad. You also could have just called the minraise on the the flop as you were getting decent odds and villain was known to shove light.

However, that line might force you to give up on the turn occasionally if he overbets/shoves when you miss, and you might want to put up a blocking bet if you miss on the turn as he's not going to be good enough to recognize it as a blocking bet and won't punish you with a huge raise.

Even if you have to give up occasionally on the turn, this probably gives you a higher expectation than getting it in on the flop against him, if he 4bets flop, as you're going to be able to extract a decent chunk of his stack most of the time with 100% equity instead of just getting it in with 55%-65% equity on the flop.
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 10:56 AM
bluffing the river is awful, with stats like that hes not folding any hand that called the flop and turn, other than a busted draw, and you beat most busted draws. Check it and hope that he checks back.
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 11:20 AM
If you plan on shoving the river then bet less on the turn so it's more expensive on river.
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 11:27 AM
I think the villain has come so far that there is no way hes folding to a shove. I'd give it up... I like the line of raising to $2.5 after the flop... If you had hit your draws you'd be most likely picking up a large pot. But definitely a river fold.
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 11:31 AM
you have enough outs to warrant getting it all in on the flop...
So I think what your best move is:

Think of the amount you could get away with that would do 2 things 1 scare him and making him fold on the flop(as low as possible) versus betting high enough to leave you bluffing the turn by shoving and getting the most out of his flop call without making him pot commited and calling your turn shove(as high as possible)
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 01:42 PM
i just overbet shove on his stupid minraise because its fun and you can.
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 01:49 PM
Is betting more on flop and c/c the turn, why is this bad?
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Navie
OOP with a draw i would prefer c/c most of the time, i'll be more incline to bet the draw in position. cause if u missed yr gonna have a little bit of trouble, and if he raise u are still paying more for it, also u have to see the bet size and calculate the implied odds to justify yr call.
Seriously? Your going to check call with an OESD + Flush draw + over card?

I would do anything I can here to get the money all in on the flop........ even against top set there is still 40% equity here, and his range is hell of a lot wider than that.

Check calling may be cheaper, but you probably don't get paid all that often when the flush hits....... if you get the money in on the flop then you obviously get large variance but overall I think against this type of player it is +EV because he calls off his entire stack on the flop with weak TPTK hands so often.

As played give up on the river..... stacks aren't big enough for you to bluff here and a CRAI leaves him calling a tiny amount which he would be forced to call even with A-high.

I don't think you did much wrong here to be honest.... just unlucky that your monster draw didn't come good against this bad player this time. Reload and get ready to stack him soon.
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote
10-24-2008 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomtah
Is betting more on flop and c/c the turn, why is this bad?
because that line stinks like a draw.

3bet to ~$2.50 on the flop; awkward stacks make me want to shove this turn. we've got a ton of equity here.
Ton of Outs, Missed the Board...Shove, Fold? Quote

      
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