River:(72 BB, 2 players) A Hero checks, SB bets 82.2 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 82.2 BB
Spoiler:
Hero shows Q Q (Full House, Aces full of Queens)
(Pre 70%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%) SB shows Q A (Four of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 30%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%) SB wins 228.9 BB
On the flop I cbet full range with this sizing. I don't like check/calling because I feel it's too face up. If I wanted a check/call range I guess I would need to have Ax too in my check/calling range which I think would miss value given I'm more on the LAG than TAG side.
On the turn I do have aces and better in my check/calling range, since I expect villain to float me pretty light on the flop, to try and steal later. I consider my line up to this point standard.
On the river I have a decision. Does he value bet that way with JJ? TT? 99?…
My reads: he thinks I 3bet and cbet too much, his range on the flop/turn is very wide (any pair or straight draw, possibly suited broadways…).
Is it an easy fold? It sounds exploitable but OTOH, is trips on the board rare enough so that it does not matter in practice?
I learned how to play NLHE "pre-solver" and still haven't tried using one, I'm happy to read any comments on my reasoning, sizings, lines, etc. to see how outdated my thinking is. ☺
Flop sizing is too big if you go for range bet. It also doesn't make much sense to bet 1/2 with this hand, you don't need protection and you lose value because he will float wider if you use smaller size.
Ott and especially otr it's unlikely he value bets worse. You have very good bluff catcher you block AQ, but as you said maybe he will give up a lot on this particular runout. Probably folding is better, but hard to find it in ghe game.
Hmmm OK I should probably go for a 3rd on dry Ahigh board? It's not the driest ever with a few straight draws but OK.
It is hard to find a fold indeed. I suspect this slight overbet shove is very rarely something else than the A though. I should probably try to install and use a solver if I want a definitive answer.