If it means anything, villain did tank for about 15 seconds or so before X OTT.

Haven't looked yet, but I'm guessing it would make more sense to do this with KQo with the spade blocker, but I tend to 4b/fold pre with the offsuit BWs in practice.



Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.5(BB)
HERO (107.6BBs)
BTN (100BBs) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 66.7% | Hands: 10]
SB (116.6BBs) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 22.6% | AGG: 16.7% | Hands: 31]
BB (104BBs) [VPIP: 37.5% | PFR: 37.5% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 8]
UTG (101.5BBs) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 7]
HJ (152BBs) [VPIP: 17.2% | PFR: 13.8% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 31]

Dealt to Hero: Q K

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To 2.5BBs, BTN Raises To 7BBs, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls 4.5BBs

Hero SPR on Flop: [6 effective]
Flop (15.5BBs): J A 6
HERO Checks, BTN Bets 4.9BBs (Rem. Stack: 88.1BBs), HERO Calls 4.9BBs (Rem. Stack: 95.8BBs)

Turn (25.2BBs): J A 6 K
HERO Checks, BTN Checks

River (25.2BBs): J A 6 K 5
HERO Checks, BTN Bets 18BBs (Rem. Stack: 70.2BBs), HERO Raises To 95.8BBs (allin)

goat move. I'll prove it in a bit

I don't like it because what flushes do you really have?

So looks like solver is just betting all of it's flushes OTR. I thought it'd check some to allow BTN to bluff.

Interested to see what DDP posts. Maybe it's MDA approved, but for now I'll settle it for being a punt.

Okay here is my analysis on the spot, I could be wrong but I think your play is really really good.

First off, check gto. Yes solver approved at low frequency.

Second, check mda.

COvsBTN3bet B30-X-B70 folding frequencies compared to MDF.



Check Alpha.

Risk 88.1/(88.1 + 18 + 25.2) = 67%

Check MDA.

73%

Check Calculator.



Nice hand!

The what value do you have argument doesn't make a ton of sense to me, what is more likely. Someone turning KQ into a bluff or them having a flush vs B70. If you study MDA you know this spot is underbluffed.

Not just that, but with the A, K and J out there what hands are you opening and calling a 3bet with? If he has the Qs you're F'd.

Depends on what level villain is at.

Agree vs some it doesn't matter what value youcan reasonably have if they're not thinking about that. But if they are and they have blockers to said value...

We don't know what level he is at so we just defer to the data. Agreed if he has blockers we definitely get called but I'll take a 6% discrepancy all day.

quite ambitious with no spade!

I think a decent opponent is looking you up w/ Ax, even at these limits. I mean, your line makes no sense. A for effort though honestly.

Are you just calling 2 pair+ on the flop? Likely not.

Is your opponent bluffing? Likely not since they checked the turn. Doesn't mean they have a strong hand, but it doesn't increase our fold% if we bluff.

Do you have a flush? Likely not since you didn't bet river, and you shouldn't be going for a XR here often, because you can't expect your opponent to bet river at a high frequency once they check turn.

Does your opponent have a strong enough hand to call a river XR all-in? Likely not, so why would their opponent expect them to?


I think any decent opponent is going to reason through this and smell BS.

I think my biggest theoretical mistake was thinking I should XR flushes OTR, but those are being bet at close to 100%.

Villain did fold, so I'll see what he had in about 8 hours. Wouldn't be surprised if he had something like JT.

Blockees in tight range spots can have more than 6% effect. In underbluff tight range spots showdown bias is also very real because ppl mostly raise value and valu hands block a lot of calling range.

I don't think that's your biggest mistake, honestly, because if I had to bet, 95% of your field doesn't understand the river play.

I doubt he bluffs w/ JT for that sizing. You likely got him to fold Ax or he had complete air. Don't think he's turning TT or 99 into bluffs w/ that sizing either.

Can you mathematically prove that showdown bias is 6% or greater in this spot?

You are likely just bluffing with the best hand a lot of the time.

Ofc not. You would need exact ranges for that.

Okay so then how do you know this? Or how can you even come up with a 6% number or say SD bias can be greater than 6% in this spot?

I'm genuinely interested because I haven't seen anyone tackle this subject with any degree of accuracy.

Not saying its more or less than 6%. We know on average its 3% and in this spot is more than average. My guess would be 5-6% but maybe its 10% idk.

Okay, yeah I'm just going off that 2%-3% number PH said in Ether as well.

@Newguy

Interested in results!

4 hours

Place your bets

< TP / -140
TP / - 110
2 pair or better / +130
Misclick Royal / +24000000000000

I'd expect 2p+ here a lot.

lol nice parlay hit the other day!

I want to do an exact hand - what are my odds? KJo

ty


hmmm...

KJo is +350

lock it up!

AQo

Nice bluff, a solid “nobody bluffs here” spot