are those odds good enaugh - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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are those odds good enaugh

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02-16-2023 , 10:36 PM

Ramius

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 2,148

villain is regish 23/19 fold to 3bet 80%! 4bet range:2 500hands

Villain look like a new reg, a bit scared, but hero had quite aggressive image preflop against this villain, are we sticking to stats or we assuem he can start spewing?

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 4 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $8.85 (35 bb)
BU: $16.40 (66 bb)
SB: $37.40 (150 bb)
BB (Hero): $25.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A♠ Q♥
2 players fold, SB raises to $0.75, Hero 3-bets to $2.25, SB 4-bets to $5.25, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($10.50) T♠ J♦ 3♣ (2 players)
SB bets $3.11, Hero calls $3.11

Turn: ($16.72) 9♠ (2 players)
SB bets $29.04 (all-in), [color=#666666][i]BB (Hero) ?

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02-16-2023 , 11:30 PM

aner0

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,795

8*2=16
1/3=0.33

Forget the stats, the image or the spew

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02-17-2023 , 01:03 AM

ssmallz

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 3,907

This is a fold pre, his 80% fold to 3 bet and 2% 4 bet mean he's not likely to be 4 betting worse and you are likely severely dominated.

As played I think you gotta fold here, you need 40% equity, likely only have 15-20ish depending on how many of your outs are live

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02-17-2023 , 09:42 AM

Ramius

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 2,148

So you just exploit stats, even those positions, instead of playing somewhat solid poker? I folded turn obviously, if we are going for max exploitation i shouldnt 3bet in the first place i guess

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02-17-2023 , 10:26 AM

ssmallz

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 3,907

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramius

So you just exploit stats, even those positions, instead of playing somewhat solid poker? I folded turn obviously, if we are going for max exploitation i shouldnt 3bet in the first place i guess

Exploiting stats/reads is playing solid poker. Against this specific player I think 3 betting is fine bc they are aggro pf and fold to a ton of 3 bets so it’s printing $$. Once he 4 bets, the situation changes.

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02-17-2023 , 10:53 AM

aner0

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,795

You have 500 hands on the guy, forget about the 4b or the f3b for that matter

To start making big deviations preflop here you'd need at least a few thousand hands on him

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02-17-2023 , 06:12 PM

ioanguradeaur

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2022 Posts: 514

For a reasonably accurate F3B, u need 2k+, for 4B I'd say at least 8k hands.
If ballpark is sufficient, half those.
U need to fold now.

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