Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

05-26-2009 , 10:42 PM
I think the tilt's mainly plugged, I got a lot of BS today and managed to stick it out well.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-26-2009 , 10:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RapidEvolution
Just a quick lookthrough, Pablo:

I think you're 3betting a bit too much. I'm not sure what your range is, but I'm guessing this leads you to more HU situations which is generally fine, but I think you're forfeiting a ton of equity in spots where you could be calling pre with hands that flop well multiway and stacking multiple people postflop.
I don't know what you mean. I limp behind if people limp too so multiway I don't raise but I 3-bet all SC's, all PP's, and premiums.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-26-2009 , 11:01 PM
Right. The same principle applies. Flatting raises with SCs and small PPs allows other people to come in behind you (which you want if you're playing a prospective hand) and gives you more room to maneuver postflop where you should have a huge advantage over the other players in the field. I really doubt you need to balance your 3bet range vs a huge majority of the players at these stakes (and higher).
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-26-2009 , 11:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PabloEscobar
I think the tilt's mainly plugged, I got a lot of BS today and managed to stick it out well.
grats
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-26-2009 , 11:03 PM
Do you think we could sweat sometime?

Off-topic lol.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-26-2009 , 11:21 PM
Yeah sure It'll be funky to see that style at those stakes. PM me good days/times and we'll see what we can work out
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 12:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by imfromsweden
First of all, thanks for a great response!

1. This is all of my hands in May, or around 10k. My main game at 25/50NL is around 19/13/2.8 but as you can see I've loosened up lately. Good or bad, I don't know...

2. Yeah, well I check back a lot of flops. As you can see, I only cbet 62% of the time. And out of those 62% I barrel the turn 54% of the time so I totally cbet flop and turn 33% of the time. Is this too much?


3.
I actually think I'm defending pritty good, and picking my spots well. Look at the previous page, where I show a graph of when I 3-bet (or call) with thrash hands (No broadways, and no pairs) from the BB. I'm winning money So this is probably not a problem. Yeah I fold SB to a steal pritty much 100% of the time.

4. 6% of the time. Much or not?

5. Good advice. I though A-2o was a "must raise" because we "have an ace".

6. I do, aginst nits I min-raise

7. I 3-bet 5% of the time from the BTN, 4.5% of the time from SB and 6% from the BB. From all other positions, around 2%.

Fold to flop cbet: 55%
Check/raise flop: 3.68%
1) 19/13/3 is already on the high side, I'd stick around there until you have a solid game plan and good win rate with those stats before trying to play even looser. I'm a pretty big newb when it comes to using HEM but off the top of my head I can't think of any of the best aggro player's I've red flagged at NL50 that are playing with a 20+ VPIP.

2) Someone else could probably answer this one better, but its seems like your firing a 2nd barrel way too often. 75% flop cbet and 71.5% turn cbet at NL50 are almost identical, same for NL25. Maybe pushing draws too hard or counting on having more FE than you actually do vs weak made hands. Could be sample size too, I'm not sure how fast these stats converge.

3/4/7) 6% 3bet is very playable but also well above what I'd consider average. Nitty-Tags are usually around 1.5-2.5, decent tags are around 3-3.5 and the most of the very aggro 3betters are 4.5-5.5.
That said playing big pots OOP is not good and your 3betting more from the BB than you are from the button and 3x more than you do from the CO! Just switching those around would probably be an instant boost to your WR.

5) Tightening up your stealing range by dropping the hands that just don't flop well will also give you more credibility when you do cbet and you'll have more room to improve when firing that 2nd barrel. If I saw a villain with a 52% steal and 75% cbet I would be floating, CRing and pretty much calling you down very light.

It would become obvious pretty quick that most of your range is complete trash from LP. That could be why your redline is crashing, villains just don't give you credit for anything. So you either end up 3barreling a marginal hand and get value-towned when they CDL, or you have to give up before showdown when they start playing back at you.

Those are my best guesses. Keep in mind its a small sample size and very hard to say just from stats alone. Tightening up your steal range and 3betting more IP than OOP would be a good start and then fine tune from there
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 02:35 AM
Thank you very much
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 10:31 AM
Swede, I'd also recommend looking at your cbet% in hands where you're stealing. One thing that I know I was having issue with was that I was cbetting too often in pots where I was stealing (especially vs stationy players with medium strength flop hands). My coach at the time recommended toning down the cbets in those spots, especially vs aggro opponents with a high tendency to c/r flops.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 12:35 PM
Okey, good advance, thanks.

According to my database:

I cbet flop 67% of the time when I steal and get called. Since I almost always have trash when I open in LP I almost never call a flop bet (technicly a donk-bet), and therefore my AF is 5.5.

When I steal, I cbet turn 52% and my turn AF is relatively normal, 2.76.

What to make out of this, I have no clue... Is 67% cbet too much?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 12:42 PM
One thing I noticed is that i'm losing HUGE amounts of money from the BB. I have a loss rate off 0.33 BB/PER HAND in the BB for a total off -235$ this month. Is this normal?

Strange part is that I've already shown that i'm profitable when I defend with marginal hands (see previous page)... So where does all the losses come from??
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 01:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by imfromsweden
One thing I noticed is that i'm losing HUGE amounts of money from the BB. I have a loss rate off 0.33 BB/PER HAND in the BB for a total off -235$ this month. Is this normal?

Strange part is that I've already shown that i'm profitable when I defend with marginal hands (see previous page)... So where does all the losses come from??
It's normal to lose money from the BB. If you folded your BB every time, you'd be losing at a rate of 1 BB/hand (LDO).

Regarding the c-betting in steal situations thing, it's tough to say just on statistics. There are a lot of factors to consider, such as what types of players you're stealing from, how much your steal/c-bet sizes are, what types of boards you're betting, if your hand has actual value are you getting the most for it? etc etc.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by I vi ii V7
It's normal to lose money from the BB. If you folded your BB every time, you'd be losing at a rate of 1 BB/hand (LDO).

Regarding the c-betting in steal situations thing, it's tough to say just on statistics. There are a lot of factors to consider, such as what types of players you're stealing from, how much your steal/c-bet sizes are, what types of boards you're betting, if your hand has actual value are you getting the most for it? etc etc.
No... wait one second... 1BB = 2 Big blind

So every hand at the BB I would lose 0.5 BB/hand. And I'm actually losing 0.33 BB/hand.

So this is normal? What loss-rates do you guys have at the BB?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by imfromsweden
No... wait one second... 1BB = 2 Big blind
You know what I mean.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 02:15 PM
I do

So, what's ur loss rate from the BB??
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 03:01 PM
I am -20.4 ptbb/100 in the BB
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 03:36 PM
Yeah I'm at -20.0 ptbb/100 in the BB if you look over all my hands.

This month though, i'm at -33.1 ptbb/100 in the BB and i'm trying to figure out why? Well, I guess it could just be mother variance
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 03:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by imfromsweden
Yeah I'm at -20.0 ptbb/100 in the BB if you look over all my hands.

This month though, i'm at -33.1 ptbb/100 in the BB and i'm trying to figure out why? Well, I guess it could just be mother variance
most likely If you want to pm me some HH's I'd be happy to look at them and give my spazzy input.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 04:18 PM
-46.13 bb/100 from BB
-10.97 bb/100 from SB

I think HEM measures in big blinds. So I'm still better than if I folded every time. I'm not so sure that's acceptable though.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 04:24 PM
Me neither, what's a good goal??
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 04:40 PM
I'm also curious to see what a good goal for SB/BB win rates are.

I'm running -15.77 ptBB/100 from the BB over the last 15k hands.
Positive from the SB, so I'm chalking that up to variance.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 07:10 PM
what type of player does that make me? and just from stats any suggestions?
online i'm a lili bit over a breakeven player. and i have been doing very well lately in my local live games.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 07:11 PM
Ok, first a graph. That big downswing 18.4k started with a few suckouts and was followed by lots of tilt. Anyway, I'll post two sets of stats. First, overall stats. Secondly, my last 10k hands.



Ok, first, my overall stats. There are some 6max hands snuck in there, but it's only a couple hundred so shouldn't really make a difference overall.


And here are the last 10k of full ring hands


This is the first time I've submitted stats for analysis, so I'm not sure what else I should put up. And as much as I cringe at being criticized, I know it's for my own good. Thank you in advance for taking the time to look at this.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ca6
what type of player does that make me? and just from stats any suggestions?
online i'm a lili bit over a breakeven player. and i have been doing very well lately in my local live games.
stop limping marginal hands, raise more, last number is AF but I've never seen an AF like that, so that's probably something else.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
05-27-2009 , 07:15 PM
on my hud it say aggression percentage
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote

      
m