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Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

06-25-2013 , 01:12 PM
how do i filter for call/shove?

I assume shove is raised 4bet?
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06-25-2013 , 05:33 PM
can I get some input ?
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06-25-2013 , 05:44 PM
ur winning at 9bb/100, i dont think there's much to say other than move up and keep grinding.
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06-26-2013 , 06:13 AM
Hi guys I am new to this forum. Here is my last 60k hands maybe you can help to plug my big leaks. Personally I think that my blind play is terrible and I am to passive my aggression factor is really low normally my vpip and pfr is 14/12 but last 200 hands I am in a big downsving so I have tighten up. Also to small 3bet from blinds. Appreciate all opinions. Its my first post so sorry if something missing just tell me what else to put for better analysis.




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06-26-2013 , 06:28 AM
Maybe someone with better eyesight can take a look. I can't read that top image of your positional stats. I'm not a fan of your flop c-bet stat. IMO, it should be higher, say, around 65%, but I have seen plenty of people winning with your flop c-bet stat, so it's not necessary to have a higher flop c-bet % to win.

Eventually, you're going to need to open up your game a bit, but now might not be the best time for you to do so, as it could just introduce additional leaks into your game if you're still having problems playing a tight range.

I know this thread isn't just about me, and other people give great advice, but I'm not going to be able to comment on those small images. HEM2 is causing me fits every day during my coaching sessions because of its poor readability, and it's even worse when you guys shrink it down to post the images.

Sorry, I'm old and the eyesight sucks.
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06-26-2013 , 06:28 AM
Trisector:

Can't see your new image at all. It's not uploading.
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06-26-2013 , 06:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mudrc
can I get some input ?
Well I'm not great at these things, but the 1 thing I noted was your high flop cbet. I think 79% is a bit too high. Other than that stats obv look fine and so do results, granted it's a small sample size but still.
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06-26-2013 , 07:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
Trisector:

Can't see your new image at all. It's not uploading.

I hope this works now

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06-26-2013 , 04:24 PM
Hi guys,

I started playing 10NL a few months ago and moved up to 25NL butt i cant seem to beat 25NL.

I think there are more regs on 25NL and there's far more agression then at 10NL.
I dont think i play different at both stakes butt i also know its not just running bad at 25NL.

Graph at 10NL ( winrate 4bb/100)



Graph at 25NL ( winrate -2/100)




Stats

vpip17
pfr14
3bet5
AGGF1.9

fold to 3bet = 66%
WTSD% = 27%
Flop cbet = 49%
turn cbet = 44%
river cbet = 39%
fold to cbet = 50%

I dont know what to do to start beating 25NL you guys have any idea?
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06-26-2013 , 05:05 PM
Hooray!

OK, so here's what I see

Overall stats:

Steal%: Too low. You're missing some stealing opportunities. It looks to me like you're going to have a somewhat low stealing stat in all three stealing positions, as your average is only in the low 30s.

Don't focus on the number, though. Focus on the situations. On the cut off, look for tight players OTB, and then steal their button with your button stealing range. On the button, focus on opening up your range a bit and look for exploitable tendencies in the blinds (for example, a high fold to steal, or a low fold to steal but a high fold to flop c-bet).

Fold to Flop c-bet%: at 58%, you're a little high. Look for opportunities to float people when you whiff or flop only backdoor equity, with an eye toward executing a call bluff when they check the turn. The best spots are guys whose stats indicate they have a high flop c-bet stat, but a low turn c-bet stat. That means they take a high percentage of bet flop/check turn lines, and are ideal candidates to call/bluff.

Bear in mind I am not saying to only call a c-bet when his stats look like that. If you flop reasonable showdown value, or a draw, continue playing the way you are. I'm saying to go out of your way to add call/bluffs to your game against players with only one barrel.

W$WSF: You're a bit below 40% on this stat. Part of the problem here is the fact that you're folding to c-bets too much as I discussed above. The remainder of this problem appears likely to be concentrated in check/folds when you're the preflop raiser. Not that I think your flop c-bet is too low, I think it's ok in a vaccuum; it's just that that happens to be where most of the rest of the hands lost that could have been won are concentrated. (more on this later).

If there's a third spot where you're losing hands you should win, it's very likely when you're facing a river bet, you're folding a bit too much. Your WTSD is unusually low. This isn't a problem in and of itself, but your W$SD is not particularly high or low, it's about average, which means that, taken together, you're folding a few more winners than losers and folding too often.

This leak can manifest in a couple of ways. First, it can show up when you're OOP and check/fold because you feel like the pot has gotten too big for the value of your hand. Obviously, we can't be thinking in those terms, and need just to be doing pot odds calculations--if we're ahead often enough to justify the call, we call; if not, we fold. The second way this can show up is with your steals. You take a pot control line, the other guy leads into you on the turn or the river (depending on what street you checked) and you're folding marginal showdown value that you could profitably be calling.

In order to determine which, if either, of these leaks you have, you need to add WTSD, W$SD, W$WSF and RCE to your position report, and look to see where your stats are the lowest. If your low stats are concentrated in the BB, CO and button, you're having problems playing weak showdown value. If they're concentrated in the SB and EP, it's usually check/folding good hands that you should sometimes be check/calling.

Positional Win Rates:

Button Your win rate is on the low side of "good." The difference between the low side of good and good is just a few additional steals. Filter for your in position 3 bets, filter out the premiums (AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK). If you have a positive win rate with those filters on, you can add a few 3 bets, too, to help increase your button win rate. But you should try to steal a slightly wider range.

Cut off: Your cut off win rate is about half what I would like it to be. Some combination of leaks and variance is slaughtering your CO win rate.

I am 100% confident that part of the problem is that you're not stealing enough from the cut off, as I mentioned in the stealing section above. Some other filters for you to run to determine where your problem lies: Filter for your calls of 3 bets. If your losses here are more than the average size of your preflop raise from the cut off, you have a huge leak; anything between 50% and 100% of your average raise size is a leak, but obviously smaller. Filter for your steals. Your win rate should be pretty solid, from, say 50bb-100bb. Then add saw flop = true. Your win rate should remain positive. If it's not positive in both spots, you have a leak. Lastly, filter for your cold calls. If you WR is not positive, you have a big leak. If it's positive but below 50bb/100, you have a leak, but a smaller one.

Middle Positions: You're a little bit low here with your win rates, but it's a small enough discrepancy that it could just be variance. There's not much to say here.

Early Positions: Here I'm talking about the first 3 positions. Your overall win rate for these three positions is about 4bb/100. That's about half the minimum number I'd be happy with. I'm used to seeing a 4bb/100 win rate from guys that have a 5%/5% vpip/pfr from EP, but it's fairly unusual to find it for somebody playing 10/10 in EP. So I think what is going on there is straightforward; you're losing money with the bottom of your opening range. In the perfect world, you'd try to diagnose the post flop leaks that are causing you to lose with that part of your range. For the quick fix, just fold the hands groupings that show up as negative in your holecards report filtered for those 3 positions and PFR = true.

As for the post flop leak, it occurs to me that a 64% flop c-bet stat is probably sub-optimal for a 10% range; That's a lot of check folds that are just burning 3bb at a time. So what you'll want to do is go to the position page, and check your flop c-bet stat for those 3 positions. It should be above average for you, so high 60s or low 70s. If it's not, then we'll know that at least part of your problem in the first three positions is that you're opening too wide and check/folding too much. I'm already actually pretty sure this is the case, because your turn c-bet is so high that it necessarily means you don't have a lot of air in your range on the turn, as you would if you c-bet your air on the flop enough.

Another possible source of post flop leaks in EP is in your check/calling and check/folding the river game. As I noted above, you'll want to look at your WTSD, W$SD, W$WSF and RCE on your position report to see if anything jumps out at you.

Blinds: As I said in my original response to your stats, Cangurino was right, you're not really leaking here. It looks like you're playing the blinds well enough for me to suggest tis: filter for your non-premium 3 bets, as I described above. If your win rate is at all positive, even 10bb/100, go ahead and add maybe 1 or 2% of bluff and semi bluff 3 bets to your blinds. We'll want you to go even higher eventually, but baby steps for now.

Feel free to post any of the screenshots of the filters I have suggested in here for additional comment.

Last edited by mpethybridge; 06-26-2013 at 05:31 PM. Reason: fixed typo--54% changed to 64%
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06-26-2013 , 05:32 PM
WTSD % seems high for your pre flop stats -- whats your WSD%? Flop cbet is very low imo. AggF is pretty low.

I'd like to see your stealing stats please- BTN/CO and SB. Also if you have position stats.

Whats your 3bet?
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06-26-2013 , 05:33 PM
get a coach, or start talking to people & keep on working on your game

oh & 90k hands & -2bb/100 dont even really mean your a loser, sample size too small & loss rate too small to determine anything... only thing that matters is if you feel like your making many mistakes or getting outplayed in terms whether or not you feel your a loser in those games imo
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06-26-2013 , 05:58 PM
that was 3 or 4 times to me = i was good at nl10, made BR = 800-900$ and went to nl25, lost 200-300$ and got back nl10 until built roll again. Now i'm doing well at nl25. Exothermic is right = the best idea is to get coach and work out ur leaks = that will save u a lot of money and nervs.
another thing u can do = work out ur hand history and find all hands where u lost a lot, won small with ur monsters ==> classify them and then make changes in some ur lines, whcih bring u to that result.

i think u've faced a lot of troubles with AA-KK postflop vs. sets/dopers + situation, when lost with buttom sets to higher sets.
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06-26-2013 , 06:09 PM
Do people really need coaching at 25NL? That seems a little extreme. I don't think you need coaching until 100NL+.

The sample size is small. Maybe post hands in this thread.
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06-26-2013 , 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CliffLee
Do people really need coaching at 25NL? That seems a little extreme. I don't think you need coaching until 100NL+.

The sample size is small. Maybe post hands in this thread.
a friend of mine was a breakeeven reg from nl10, took about 10-15 hours (250-350$ total) of coaching and doing great result now at nl25 --> +1200$ in june (+4bb/100 over 110-130k hands sample).

i think quite good investment of his 300$ for the coach
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06-26-2013 , 06:29 PM
wtf@100nl

some people probably can go without coaching n crush high stakes hence isildur & probably every other HS reg.... not every guy is like that though brah, everybody is different

dont really see what makes 100nl so special, its all about where your having trouble & coaching can clearly can be beneficial at any level
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06-26-2013 , 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nicknameless
a friend of mine was a breakeeven reg from nl10, took about 10-15 hours (250-350$ total) of coaching and doing great result now at nl25 --> +1200$ in june (+4bb/100 over 110-130k hands sample).

i think quite good investment of his 300$ for the coach
Maybe. Though, what if your friend could have read (2+2)/watched (coaching vids) instead? His ROI would be a lot better

All I'm saying is that a lot of money for games that can be beaten without a coach. IMO, 25NL is too low.
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06-26-2013 , 06:32 PM
it may be the lack of confidence, over adjusting in some spots where you feel regs are running you over when in fact they don't and it results in calling more or folding because of scared money.

it may also be sample size and i saw a lot of people that had problems tackling with a higher level then proceeded to crush.

a good indicator is the fact that you question yourself and you seek for help.

invest in a coach if you feel like, add people on skype and discuss certain situations, post non standard hands on 2p2 and continue improving and playing.
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06-26-2013 , 06:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exothermic
wtf@100nl

some people probably can go without coaching n crush high stakes hence isildur & probably every other HS reg.... not every guy is like that though brah, everybody is different

dont really see what makes 100nl so special, its all about where your having trouble & coaching can clearly can be beneficial at any level
I'm not saying you must have a coach at 100NL, though I do think if you get coaching, probably should be at small stakes. 100NL seems to be the minimum justifiable limit for coaching based on 1) cost of coaching 2) what you would gain from a 25NL coach.

The point you made can be reversed in that: what makes 25NL so special that it requires a coach? Why not get a coach at 5NL or for play money. The reason is because you don't need one and it would be a waste of $. This argument holds true at 25NL.

Fundamentals and VBing seem to be enough fo 25NL FR.

Also, it's a lame response to someone asking about their leaks to simply point to coaching as the answer. I'm certain there's the material to read and watch, in a relatively small amount of time, to improve enough to beat micros.
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06-26-2013 , 07:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
In order to determine which, if either, of these leaks you have, you need to add WTSD, W$SD, W$WSF and RCE to your position report, and look to see where your stats are the lowest. If your low stats are concentrated in the BB, CO and button, you're having problems playing weak showdown value. If they're concentrated in the SB and EP, it's usually check/folding good hands that you should sometimes be check/calling.
Position Report with WTSD, W$SD, W$WSF and RCE

W$WSF is higher for SB and EP. It's particularly low for BB. Is this loss because I resteal from the BB and I'll usually have a weak hand when I see a flop?
W$SD% is lower at EP than CO and BTN. Just to double check, I should be check calling rivers more often from EP? I'm also taking into account that my RCE is higher for EP, meaning that I could call more often.

Quote:
Positional Win Rates:

Button Your win rate is on the low side of "good." The difference between the low side of good and good is just a few additional steals. Filter for your in position 3 bets, filter out the premiums (AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK). If you have a positive win rate with those filters on, you can add a few 3 bets, too, to help increase your button win rate. But you should try to steal a slightly wider range.
3bet without premiums (AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK)

I'm winning at a decent amount here, so I'll add more 3bet bluffs since it's so profitable.

Quote:
Cut off: Your cut off win rate is about half what I would like it to be. Some combination of leaks and variance is slaughtering your CO win rate.

I am 100% confident that part of the problem is that you're not stealing enough from the cut off, as I mentioned in the stealing section above. Some other filters for you to run to determine where your problem lies: Filter for your calls of 3 bets. If your losses here are more than the average size of your preflop raise from the cut off, you have a huge leak; anything between 50% and 100% of your average raise size is a leak, but obviously smaller.

Well this seems to be a bit of a disaster. Not sure if I filtered these hands correctly. I just set called 3bet to true. I'm also not sure about the last sentence in the above quote. Please explain it a little bit more.

Quote:
Filter for your steals. Your win rate should be pretty solid, from, say 50bb-100bb.
Then add saw flop = true. Your win rate should remain positive. If it's not positive in both spots, you have a leak.
Steal


Steal and saw flop=true

I don't think there are any major problems here.


Quote:
Lastly, filter for your cold calls. If you WR is not positive, you have a big leak. If it's positive but below 50bb/100, you have a leak, but a smaller one.

I'm assuming this means that I'm calling too much pre. Should I counteract this by 3betting light more and folding a bit more of the bottom of my range?

Quote:
Early Positions: For the quick fix, just fold the hands groupings that show up as negative in your holecards report filtered for those 3 positions and PFR = true.
I had a look at this report and saw that I was losing with 22, 33 and 44. I had a marginal winrate with 55. So I think for the moment I'll take small pocket pairs out of my EP opening range.


Quote:
So what you'll want to do is go to the position page, and check your flop c-bet stat for those 3 positions. It should be above average for you, so high 60s or low 70s. If it's not, then we'll know that at least part of your problem in the first three positions is that you're opening too wide and check/folding too much.

Ok so I definitely need to cbet more and be able to spot good spots to double barrel.




Thanks a lot for your time and effort mpethy I definitely learnt a lot. I've never done any sort of analysis like this so it was a real eye-opener
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
06-26-2013 , 07:49 PM
Trisector:

I'm pretty burned out for today. Also did a huge analysis for a guy over in micro 6 max. Gotta save some thinking capability for the grind tonight, lol. I'll take a look at your new post tomorrow, but it looks like you're figuring it out on your own.

Shoot me a PM if I forget.
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06-26-2013 , 07:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
Trisector:

I'm pretty burned out for today. Also did a huge analysis for a guy over in micro 6 max. Gotta save some thinking capability for the grind tonight, lol. I'll take a look at your new post tomorrow, but it looks like you're figuring it out on your own.

Shoot me a PM if I forget.
Not a problem at all, any help will be appreciated. You've given me more than enough to work on
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06-27-2013 , 08:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CliffLee
Do people really need coaching at 25NL? That seems a little extreme. I don't think you need coaching until 100NL+.

The sample size is small. Maybe post hands in this thread.
Edited post from a coaching thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by xxxxxxxxxxxxx
]hi guys,

about a month ago i was lurking in the coaching thread. i found this thread, [snipped] i've always struggled at this limit and haven't been winning recently. i had nothing to lose so...[got coaching]

right away he spotted a couple of leaks in my game after looking at my stats. the lesson went very well, and i was excited to play and see if it had done anything to up my game.




before:






after(1 month later):






[coach] was completely shocked at the results. i am too as this is a 10bb swing in winrate and after only one lesson.

[snipped plaudits for coach]
YMMV, OFC, but a little coaching can sometimes make a big difference.
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06-28-2013 , 07:42 AM
This time I put 300k hands and make it bigger that everyone can see the stats. Really looking forward to any help. I am really struggling in 50nl also running bad that makes things even worse. Say if you need any other stats that could help you to help me

http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/6470/ni0z.png
http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/9127/pzn.png
http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/9963/wvp.png
http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/8571/4ni.png
http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/4628/6ir.png
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
06-28-2013 , 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupslaukis
This time I put 300k hands and make it bigger that everyone can see the stats. Really looking forward to any help. I am really struggling in 50nl also running bad that makes things even worse. Say if you need any other stats that could help you to help me

http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/6470/ni0z.png
http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/9127/pzn.png
http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/9963/wvp.png
http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/8571/4ni.png
http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/4628/6ir.png
I am loosing in SB+BB -83/100 normal is about -60 right? maybe someone have some tips how to improve these positions play.
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