Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Pipkin
Ok, here are my stats for NL5 and NL10 6max. I know that there are loads of different stats here, I don't expect anyone to look at them all.
[B]
Here are my position stats. These are both NL5 and NL10 combined, I don't know how to show them separately. (wow, looks like the BB is a HUGE leak for me!)
As you can see, at NL10 I play almost identical to when I'm playing NL5. But my winrate at NL5 is 9.5 PTBB/100 and NL10 is 3.1 PTBB/100. This is a pretty small sample, but it still worries me. I think I'm running bad. It really feels that I never ever get any action on my big hand and I get coolered A LOT. But I know this could all just be in my head.
Also, at both levels I'm losing at -7.5 PTBB/100 on hands that don't go to showdown. Not sure if this is normal or really bad?
Sorry it took so long to get back to you, but this was maybe the toughest case I have seen yet, and I have had to spend a lot of time thinking about these stats.
I've been looking at your stats for two days off and on trying to figure out if there is a leak in your game that can explain the ugly 11,000 hands at NL $10. TBH, I didn't find one that I am sure about. Your stats look good for NL $10 6 max.
You may indeed just be running bad. But maybe you are folding a bit more on later streets because of the higher stakes? I think you might be doing this, because your won $ at showdown figures are pretty high. When this stat approaches 60%, in a FR player, I start to suspect that he is laying down some winning hands. I don't know what is standard for a TAg at 6 max, but most Tags in FR have a won $ at showdown of between 51 and 55% This is one of those weird stats where getting the win % as high as possible is not good, because, for instance, winning 100% at show down would mean you never took even the second nuts to showdown, never got all in with cards to come, etc. See? So if your win % is too high, i start thinking that you are habitually missing some opportunities to snap off bluffs, that you are folding a few winners, things like that.
If I were you, I would set my filters so that I was looking only at the last 11,000 hands at NL $10 where you have been breaking even/losing a bit. Then I would set my filters to look at only those hands where they went to showdown and I won. I would study these hands and try to get a sense for what I am willing to show down. An obvious leak at 6 max would be if you are never showing down middle or bottom pair in limped pots that are only 8 or 10 bb at showdown, for instance. If you don't find any of these hands, you are definitely folding the best hand too much.
After i did that, i would reset my filters for those same 11,000 hands for hands that I folded to a river bet. Again, we are looking for a pattern--what is the worst hand you are willing to call a river bet with? If you raised 99 and over cards flop, how often are you taking that to showdown? things like that.
You are going to have a hard time finding the spots where you leak. I think it is pretty subtle. I am not sure that doing what I have suggested will expose a leak, but it is the only avenue of exploration that suggests itself from your stats.
I don't think your BB loss rate is a huge leak. In FR, the best players are usually losing ~.17ptbb/hand. I would imagine that your figure of -0.15ptbb/hand is pretty similar, but I don't really know enough about 6 max stats to say for certain that it is not a leak. But if it is a leak i don't think it is a big one.
Your -7.5ptbb loss rate in non-showdown pots is primarily a function of your losses in the BB. To see what it is separately, filter out your non-blind hands, but i am pretty sure you are a winner in non-showdown pots from all other positions. This is why i think your leak(s) is going to be hard to find; because you are leaking not by being negative in any category of actions, necessarily, but by not winning as much as you could/were at NL $5.
Look around in your last 11,000 hands for instances of weak/tightness as I described above. If nothing jumps out at you, pm me, and we will set up an aim session where we run through a bunch of PT filters looking for the leaks.