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Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

03-02-2010 , 12:17 PM
Two month sample, ran a little below EV in the middle of the sample (see the funny dip in the middle). Can grab more HEM stuff if people want me to One of my friends from college told me that my red line is too negative (100NL/200NL FR reg), but while he's a decent player, I'm really not clear on how to determine if a red line is 'too' negative. It also looks like I'm losing money when other people raise. Too much 3betting? Too much calling raises instead of 3betting? Maybe you can't figure that out from the stats I provided, but if you tell me where to look for them I will get the data. The VPIP/PFR gap is pretty big against raisers...

Another issue, I know people say all the time "Help me fix my blinds, I'm losing so much from them!". My question is -53bb/100 hands seems very high to me. Is it? What kind of adjustments should I be looking at making here, if any?

Edit: after readying mpethy's post above, if that guy is taking a "medium sized beating in the blinds" with -27bb/100 hands in the big blind, I'm assuming that the answer to my last question is that I'm taking a huge beating in the blinds. Is my interpretation correct?

Thanks!








Last edited by holsamoht; 03-02-2010 at 12:28 PM.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-02-2010 , 01:04 PM
Hi,

I've only been playing poker for less than a year and have made all the usual mistakes... and some. So, this year I've decided to take it a bit more seriously and have been reading books and sites such as this one.

I did start out with cash, then tried tournies and now mainly cash (0.01/0.02 stars) although this may change if I feel I'm more suited to tournies.

Can you please have a look at my stats and point out my leaks (which I'm sure are many) and see if I can become a breakeven player and start to improve in order for this hobby to be self-financing.

Thanks in advance.

http://i988.photobucket.com/albums/a...7/Position.jpg

http://i988.photobucket.com/albums/a...77/Overall.jpg

http://i988.photobucket.com/albums/a...ts77/Graph.jpg

Wingnuts
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-03-2010 , 03:09 AM
i have a vpip pfr question: what is generally concidered std or to loose @ fr 25nl :
* 22 vpip 18 pfr
* 25 20
* 28 22
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-03-2010 , 05:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wingnuts
Hi,

I've only been playing poker for less than a year and have made all the usual mistakes... and some. So, this year I've decided to take it a bit more seriously and have been reading books and sites such as this one.

I did start out with cash, then tried tournies and now mainly cash (0.01/0.02 stars) although this may change if I feel I'm more suited to tournies.

Can you please have a look at my stats and point out my leaks (which I'm sure are many) and see if I can become a breakeven player and start to improve in order for this hobby to be self-financing.

Thanks in advance.

http://i988.photobucket.com/albums/a...7/Position.jpg

http://i988.photobucket.com/albums/a...77/Overall.jpg

http://i988.photobucket.com/albums/a...ts77/Graph.jpg

Wingnuts
29/9 is too high for VPIP and too low for PFR IMO. You need to open up on your button and cutoff raising ranges and tighten up from early position. I don't use HEM so I may be misinterpreting this but 67.3% seems super high for calling 3 bets preflop. My fold to 3 bet in PT is like 80% over 2k hands of .5/.10 FRNL. There are plenty of non-3bet pots to make money in so I will rarely go to war in a 3bet pot with a mediocre hand. If you do play 3bet pots try to make sure you are in position.

See my positional stats below for further reference. Keep in mind that I am by no means a perfect player but I do beat 1/2 at my local casino for a decent winrate over the last year. I just recently decided to try to build up an online roll and I'm sure I have alot to learn about playing online.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-03-2010 , 05:24 AM
Just like to get some feedback on my stats, I recently decided to play online again after playing almost exclusively live for the last year or so. I only had about $200 on FT so I'm gonna start from NL$10. I am 6 tabling for now but I may add to that soon. I know 16 BB/100 is high and won't stay that way so ignore the winrate.


Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-05-2010 , 03:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by imblue
i have a vpip pfr question: what is generally concidered std or to loose @ fr 25nl :
* 22 vpip 18 pfr
* 25 20
* 28 22
22/18 is probably a typical TAG. 25/20 is a bit on the loose side, and 28/22 is moving into LAG territory.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-05-2010 , 07:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by imblue
i have a vpip pfr question: what is generally concidered std or to loose @ fr 25nl :
* 22 vpip 18 pfr
* 25 20
* 28 22
standard TAG is 12/10 - 15/13 ish range. All of those are way looser
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-06-2010 , 03:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmbreslin
22/18 is probably a typical TAG. 25/20 is a bit on the loose side, and 28/22 is moving into LAG territory.
i think you are talking 6max, or?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-06-2010 , 03:30 PM
Two month sample, ran a little below EV in the middle of the sample (see the funny dip in the middle). Can grab more HEM stuff if people want me to One of my friends from college told me that my red line is too negative (100NL/200NL FR reg), but while he's a decent player, I'm really not clear on how to determine if a red line is 'too' negative. It also looks like I'm losing money when other people raise. Too much 3betting? Too much calling raises instead of 3betting? Maybe you can't figure that out from the stats I provided, but if you tell me where to look for them I will get the data. The VPIP/PFR gap is pretty big against raisers...

Another issue, I know people say all the time "Help me fix my blinds, I'm losing so much from them!". My question is -53bb/100 hands seems very high to me. Is it? What kind of adjustments should I be looking at making here, if any?

Edit: after readying mpethy's post above, if that guy is taking a "medium sized beating in the blinds" with -27bb/100 hands in the big blind, I'm assuming that the answer to my last question is that I'm taking a huge beating in the blinds. Is my interpretation correct?

Thanks!







Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-06-2010 , 05:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by holsamoht
Edit: after readying mpethy's post above, if that guy is taking a "medium sized beating in the blinds" with -27bb/100 hands in the big blind, I'm assuming that the answer to my last question is that I'm taking a huge beating in the blinds. Is my interpretation correct?
OK, first things, first: You did a terrific job posting your stats. There is a lot here to work with. If anybody else wants a go-by for posting stats, your post is it.

So, here's what I saw:

1. Blind play: Yes, you are getting creamed in the blinds. The reason you are getting creamed in the blinds should be obvious after even a moment's reflection--it is because when you are in the blinds, you forget everything you know about poker (I know you know this stuff because your non-blind stats are very purty) and you commence to playing the blinds like a fish.

Seriously, look at your VPIP/PFR from the small blind. You are playing 23/5 from the small blind. Now imagine that you just sat at a table, and you saw that the player to your immediate right was a 23/5. You'd be pretty excited, right? You'd break out the note function, gleefully type, "loose passive fish," color code the guy for whatever color you use for "easy money," and you'd proceed to beat the **** out of him and eventually take his stack.

You know all of this, and yet you still play the small blind like a loose passive fish. Why?

The point is, we should play solid tight (or loose) aggressive poker from all positions. You don't get to turn your brain off when you are playing the blinds.

So, ok, what adjustments do you make to improve your blind play? You already know the answer--play tight aggressive poker:

a. Don't limp. Seriously, completing your small blind is usually a pretty atrocious play. "But, but, but, mpethy," you now sputter in a bewildered voice, "when I complete with 3 previous limpers, I am getting 9 to 1 on my money. Those are great odds!!!"

Really? Great odds for what? What hands are you completing, and what hands are you hoping to hit when you complete? Are you completing, say, 75s? If so, what hand are you hoping to hit?

You can flop a straight. This will happen 1 time in 102 completions with suited one gappers.

You can flop a flush. This will happen about every 118 hands.

You can flop trips. This will happen once every 74 hands.

You can flop two pair. This will happen once in every 50 hands.

9 to 1 doesn't look so attractive now, does it?

You WILL flop a pair something like 27% of the time. So you complete 75s and the flop comes down AJ5r. Congrats! You flopped a pair.

Or, this is that one time in 102 that the flop comes down and gives you the nuts--864r. Now good luck getting paid off by the weak-ass crap the other 4 players limped with.

Let's see, if I complete for $0.25 118 times, I have spent $29.50. I'm gonna flop a monster I can get paid with 5 times--a straight, a flush, a trips and two pair twice. I need to extract $5.9 each time for this play to be breakeven. Oh, and I can never get outdrawn or lose, say, with top two against bottom set, or by the guy with top pair who improves (for example, A8 has 32% equity against 75s on an A75r board). Oh, and you also can't complete and then fold to a BB raise without cutting down your overall profits.

But wait a minute, you'll flop some good draws in there, too, right? Yep; you'll flop a good straight draw every 10 hands and a good flush draw every 9. Now think about how you play those hands: Do you check/call, check/call, lead river when you bink? Do you bet/bet/check-fold when you miss? How do you play a drawing hand out of position without it being super obvious? Check/raise the flop? Meh, this has some merit against their weak ranges, but you're building a big pot drawing out of position with 30% equity. Flopping a draw is as likely to be a black hole for your money as much as it is likely to be a profitable situation.

The bottom line here is that you are going to flop a good hand (2 pair+) about once every 23 times you complete, and you're gonna flop a good draw about once every 9 times.

So if the pot is offering 9 to 1 and you are looking for a 9 to 1 draw or a 23 to 1 monster, those 9 to 1 pot odds don't look that attractive anymore.

This probably sounds familiar to you, too: MP1 limps, CO limps, button limps, and you are in the small blind with AJo. You complete. Yes, you DO complete. You don't raise this hand, at least not reliably, not when you are raising only 5% from the small blind. So my question to you is this: If you have AJo, or KJs or ATs or some other solid hand, and you KNOW that people in the micros are limping stuff like 22-66, A2-A9, Kxs, Qxs and JXs, as well as low connectors (both suited and offsuit), why in the world are you allowing those people to see a cheap flop when you could be VALUE raising as light as A9+ and KJs+? A fringe benefit is that you seize the betting initiative, and you take down the pot unimproved with a c-bet a large proportion of the time.

So, yeah, completing the SB with trash hands is usually an atrocious play, and somebody who is playing 23/4 with a 6% CC is doing it way, way, way, too much.

b. Cold Calling. Another problem I see in your stats is that 6% cold call figure. Cold calling out of the blinds is a tough spot. You call because you have a hand that rates to be a favorite against the raiser's range, or rates to be able to flop well against a strong range. (I hope). But you are out of position, and this makes it very difficult to realize your equity.

So suppose you are in the big blind and you have 77. The button raises. He has a 33% ATS. You're in good shape--you have 54% equity against his range. But how do you realize your equity when 92% of flops will have an overcard to your hand and 88% of the time you don't flop a set? How do you win on a KJ6 flop? You still have 41% equity against the villain's range, but can you really expect to win this hand out of position when you have taken a passive line and the villain is going to be c-betting the flop?

So, if you go through your cold calling range, what you are going to find is that there are plenty of hands in there that you will be losing money with that will surprise you. You'll see that you are negative with 88 or AQ or KQ, and you will think: "WTF? How can I be losing $$ against a stealing range with KQ? It must be variance."

It's not variance, it is the combination of passive and out of position play that is ruining your ability to pull a profit from profitable hands.

2. You need to 3 bet more. This should be obvious from the discussion above.

3. You should be stealing more. This doesn't necessarily mean that you should bump your stealing range from the top 28% hands to the top 35% hands. Instead, what it means is that you should be looking for people who reliably fold to steals, and you should be 3 betting them close to 100% of the time.

This is easy to do. On your HUD, just display "fold SB to steal" and "fold BB to steal." When you are on the button, all you do is multiply the SB's fold sb to steal and the bb's fold bb to steal to get the probability that they will both fold to your steal. When the result is greater than 66%, bomb away until they adjust.

If the product is below 66%, you have selected a bad table, and you need some other reason to stay at the table--so if there is a fish, say, a 23/5 to your immediate right (), then tighten up your stealing a bit, stack the fish, and then leave the table.

4. Your W$SD is too low. You are probably making too many light river calls.

5. Your W$WSF is too low. This probably is a function of all of your passive play in the blinds. If you correct your blind play, this figure should go above 40%; if it doesn't, it indicates that you are folding some winning hands (most likely in pots where you cold called preflop).
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-06-2010 , 07:34 PM
Wow mpethy, thank you so much A lot of what you said makes a lot of sense and I think I'm going to spend some time thinking about my blind play and re-building it from the ground up
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-07-2010 , 03:20 AM
so i've played about 10k hands at 25nl and i am breaking even. how can i fix my red line? i feel like i am wasting too many chips trying to setmine. as long as i'm calling less than 5% of my stack, its ok to setmine right? on top of that, even when i do hit a set i never get paid off. feel like i just dont know how to play pocket pairs. thanks for any help


Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-07-2010 , 05:18 AM
sorry about asking, but how do you capture a whole graph or a part of the stats to post in a thread.

i'd like my stats to be analyzed and write something similar to the post of holsamoth but i am struggling with that.

thankyou
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-07-2010 , 07:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vipeldeu
sorry about asking, but how do you capture a whole graph or a part of the stats to post in a thread.

i'd like my stats to be analyzed and write something similar to the post of holsamoth but i am struggling with that.

thankyou
google "screenshot", this will tell you how to capture the image from your computer (it's very easy just hit Prnt Scrn then open paint and paste). next, save that to your computer and upload it to your photobucket account. from there copy/paste the URL onto your reply here on 2p2. hit preview message and it should come up.
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03-07-2010 , 07:45 AM
Hello everyone

I looked through the first 5 pages or so and didn't see any graphs that really resembled mine. It's possible that I missed them but I wanted to get some analysis for these stats anyways.

I consider myself either a TAG or LAG, depending on table and opponents. Either way I always try to have the initiative in the hand. Is this why the non showdown winnings are so high? I thought this was standard to have upward nonshowdown winnings, but most graphs I have seen have a downward sloping redline. Also, does this mean I am showing down a lot of sub par/breakeven hands?

Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-07-2010 , 03:18 PM
Okay just moved up to NL10, trying to beat the limit with the everywhere-mentioned "ABC-Game", playing TAGish.
I think one of the problems during the first 20k hands was the heater I went on at the beginning. Earning a profit of about 90 $ in just 3k Hands, gave me prob. the feeling that it just took 2 more weeks to easily beat the limit with
5ptBB / 100 + . But from that point on I couldn't get much going, I went on a little Downswing, running ~60$ below EV at the peak + coolers etc, and I lost the confidence in my game, wondering if I really would beat the limit so easy.

EV is catching up a bit, but there's no really positive trend which one could see, just chunking arround break-even.
I think I still sometimes have problems dealing with the shortys. Generally play tight, call/push them with a range of JJ+ AQ(s)+ sounds easy, but I think I perhabs tend to call to often after raising 4x with 99 and getting shoved on 20x from the shorty.

Would be nice you could just take a quick look and search for some major leaks.



Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-07-2010 , 09:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vipeldeu
sorry about asking, but how do you capture a whole graph or a part of the stats to post in a thread.

i'd like my stats to be analyzed and write something similar to the post of holsamoth but i am struggling with that.

thankyou
ctrl+prt sc(takes a copy of your screen), open paint then ctrl+v(paste).

save picture, upload to an img hosting site and bobs your uncle.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-07-2010 , 10:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerbiker
i think you are talking 6max, or?
I was probably just evaluating the stats he provided on a relative basis.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-07-2010 , 11:41 PM
Hoping you guys can help me find some of my leaks and give me advice on what to work on.

This is 100% 25nl Full Ring




Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-08-2010 , 11:45 AM
Hi, would appreciate any feedback on my stats.

These are from 50nlfr for the last few months.

I feel like i'm losing tons in the blinds.

Thanks for any input!

http://i705.photobucket.com/albums/w...ybia/stats.jpg
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-08-2010 , 01:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pM80
Okay just moved up to NL10, trying to beat the limit with the everywhere-mentioned "ABC-Game", playing TAGish.
I think one of the problems during the first 20k hands was the heater I went on at the beginning. Earning a profit of about 90 $ in just 3k Hands, gave me prob. the feeling that it just took 2 more weeks to easily beat the limit with
5ptBB / 100 + . But from that point on I couldn't get much going, I went on a little Downswing, running ~60$ below EV at the peak + coolers etc, and I lost the confidence in my game, wondering if I really would beat the limit so easy.

EV is catching up a bit, but there's no really positive trend which one could see, just chunking arround break-even.
I think I still sometimes have problems dealing with the shortys. Generally play tight, call/push them with a range of JJ+ AQ(s)+ sounds easy, but I think I perhabs tend to call to often after raising 4x with 99 and getting shoved on 20x from the shorty.

Would be nice you could just take a quick look and search for some major leaks.
A couple of things I notice:

1) Your ATS is a bit low, below 20%. That may be a result of not stealing enough prior to the Button. It is noticeable that your stats become much tighter when you move from the Button one seat to the right. Try opening up your game a bit in the cutoff and hijack seats.

2) Big drop in AF from flop to turn, indicating that you're pulling back on the turn a lot. Are you not firing enough second bullets for value? Maybe CB-ing too much and giving up on the turn?

3) Your redline (non-showdown winnings) has taken a bit of a dive lately (at about hand 12000) and your blueline isn't making up for it. Have you made a change in your play to cause this result? Maybe your confidence has dropped and you're getting pushed off hands more often? This might be connected to your AF stat issue.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-08-2010 , 02:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmbreslin
Maybe your confidence has dropped and you're getting pushed off hands more often? This might be connected to your AF stat issue.
Guess there's some truth in your words. May have been influenced by the downie and got too weak-tight. Anyways thanks for your comments, I'm going to give 6max a shot, more comfortable to play and from the first session more fishy imo. At FR you just have the super-tight Fullstacked along with a lot of shortys, that's just not my game I think. Playing ~22k Hands FR a bit above break even, think it's time to give SH a shot, worked out in the past pretty good.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-09-2010 , 04:49 AM
I just recently moved up to 25nl FR a few weeks ago. I have already gotten used to the new limit, so now I am trying to plug any leaks that I have.

Here are my stats (20K sample size).





Immediately, I notice that my small blind is suicide here. I've kept my play style generally the same from 10nl where my small blind win rate was -0.09BB/Hand over a 50K hand size. I do not feel that I am playing my blinds terribly bad. I am wondering if my SB losses here could just be variance here. I've included some of my biggest losing hands from SB.



But besides my BB and SB stats, I am also curious about any other noticeable leaks that would be a problem in the future.

Last edited by nautuna; 03-09-2010 at 04:58 AM.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-09-2010 , 10:28 AM
Hello!

Ive just recently decided to start playing poker online. I have an abundant resource of all the info i need it seems
I played about 170 hands today in 1 sitting at 1 table. i would say my biggest leak is im not consistant. i see these graphs going on an upward curve very nicely. another would seem to be my BB and 5th positions. I am still learning to use all of these excellent pokertools. any feedback is appreciated as well as your time.

http://img169.imageshack.us/i/firstday3.png/
http://img169.imageshack.us/i/firstday3.png/

I do think I was doing fairly well for being back my first day. I havnt played in years since high school. I played almost everyday at my friends house and we had 6+ tournaments every night for a few years.
http://img412.imageshack.us/i/firstday2.png/

Obviously I tanked in the end... ehh its ugly.
maybe there isnt enough information to tell anything. I have been doing non stop reading and will continue to do so.

Thanks again.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
03-09-2010 , 11:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Subconsc1ous
Hello!

Ive just recently decided to start playing poker online. I have an abundant resource of all the info i need it seems
I played about 170 hands today in 1 sitting at 1 table. i would say my biggest leak is im not consistant. i see these graphs going on an upward curve very nicely. another would seem to be my BB and 5th positions. I am still learning to use all of these excellent pokertools. any feedback is appreciated as well as your time.

http://img169.imageshack.us/i/firstday3.png/
http://img169.imageshack.us/i/firstday3.png/

I do think I was doing fairly well for being back my first day. I havnt played in years since high school. I played almost everyday at my friends house and we had 6+ tournaments every night for a few years.
http://img412.imageshack.us/i/firstday2.png/

Obviously I tanked in the end... ehh its ugly.
maybe there isnt enough information to tell anything. I have been doing non stop reading and will continue to do so.

Thanks again.
170 hands isn't enough to analyze much more than VPIP and PFR. So out of those images that you posted, the only thing that really matters is that you are running 45/18. Your VPIP is way too high, your PFR is too high just starting out and combined, VPIP/PFR should be pretty close together. Standard TAG stats sound like 11/9, 13/10, 15/12, 19/17, 21/18 etc. When you are thinking about getting into a hand, the vast majority of the time you should be raising rather than limping or calling. But the main thing is reigning in your VPIP, its ridiculously high.

You are also not really position aware. You need to tighten up from all positions, but in early position especially you need to stop limping. Lastly, fold your blinds more and stop completing your SB. Running 76/23 from the SB is pretty leaky...
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