Even though that might not be the most appropriate forum to post that, I think we could have a decent discussion over it right here.

So, this is a televised super high roller cash game with a min. buy in of 250k.

Blinds 400/800

Andrew Robl opens to 2.4k from the HJ, Daniel Colman 3bets from the CO to 8.5k and Scott Seiver cold 4bets from the BTN to 24k. Action gets folded back to Colman who 5bets to 70k, getting a call from Seiver. Hand goes from there.

If Colman really did fold aces (and he usually speaks the truth in these kind of situations), why did he put Scott only on his value range after the river shove? Would it be too spewy from Seiver to peel preflop this deep with some of his cold 4bet bluffing range against a player like Colman (who will most likely make very few mistakes postflop)? What are Scott's value and bluff ranges on that spot?

I myself believe that it would be pretty hood from Scott to just float Colman on the flop with a hand without any equity just to try and outplay him on later streets, but it is possible though. What do you guys think?



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7CghHmJ-Ac

Hand starts at 20:37

if seiver has kk/bluffs on the turn colman should prob decide to go call call or fold the turn - not like seiver will ever bet turn and give up on the river with his bluffs(if he has any)......I think there's also reasoning for colman to vbet the turn - tough spot regardless between two elite players

edit - also wondering if seivers long river tank is exploitable - Id think he wouldn't tank this long on a bluff but for a guy on his level maybe hes balanced

Think Seiver can ever show up with 32 or 98 there? Also, for Colman to vbet this turn he would need to believe Seiver can call with TT-QQ, AK; but maybe he doesn't cold 4bet TT and JJ preflop. Would have been sick if Scott had shoved AK for value there and made Colman fold the only better hand he can fold on that river.

i don't think this is ever a bluff by seiver, 89 or kk imo

How come no one has considered the last but plausible option of AA? Can't imagine siever checking back River with AA either. Also a 6bet pre probably narrows Daniels range to KK+ and considering that siever most likely flats his AA to get Daniel to barrel alot.

yeah , but its so hard to get aa if your opponent has aa, i mean its like flopping a boat and expecting the guy to flop the only combo of quads, i don't know the math behind it (either scenario), but i don't think that would be the case as it seems rather unlikely. If anything and coleman lied, maybe he did when he said he had aa, then seiver could conceivable have aa. Seiver can comfortably bet 2pr+aa in this spot and not feel too bad about it. As for coleman, i can't wait to see this hand and see if he really mucked aa, lol that would be so sick.

See what? I'm confused they show whole cards all the time, why not this time?

Also I didn't say AA was likely, I said it has to come into account when we put siever on such a narrow range and try to make a mathematical decision.

KK is only 3 times more likely than AA in terms of. Combinations. So if Siever always has KK or AA he will have AA 1/4 times.

Then Colman must call when he gets 8:1 pot odds.

So if we wanna really narrow down his range to AA(1) + KK(3) + QJhh + JThh + QThh = equals a situation where Colman has to call every bet OTR.

In that assumption Colman must remove maybe QThh from his range due to the gap?

Then he still has to call when given 3:2 pot odds.

So basically Colman thinks maybe doesn't bluff either QJhh or JThh to fold.

Which doesn't make much sense?

Also it doesn't make sense that Colman wouldn't include those hands in his range just because siever bets turn - it is pretty fair to say Daniel Colman doesn't have a x/r range OTT so siever can easily bet atleast the draws as strong as those.

The only way I think a fold is ok if Daniel Colman thinks that siever thinks that Colman has a x/r range OTT and therefore siever would not want to bet/fold the stronger combo draws.

That is the only thing that makes sense to me.

Or other opinion is that Daniel is trying to be super exploitative and believes siever doesn't 4bet JTs type hands pre.

Has to be one or the other?

Good analysis from @benefactumgames: http://www.parttimepoker.com/colmans-enormous-laydown

Did anyone catch the broadcast when it aired with holecards shown? What did seiver have?

They won't show hole cards until the official airing,so that's why we are all guessing.

First they said we'd find out this hand on Oct 1st, when Poker Central aired. Nah nah nah...wait until Dec, kids. GG Poker Central. WP.

Pretty disappointed that a thread about such an interesting hand barely produced any discussion over it. I guess we will have to wait until the show airs then.

RIP HSNL

I highly doubt seiver has hearts in his range, just because the turn brought in backdoor hearts doesn't make it more likely that seiver has those hands since I doubt he's floating flop because of a backdoor.

Seiver most likely had Kings or Aces, as it's really unlikely he cold 4 bets and calls a 5 bet with a hand like QJs and just happened to turn a heart draw that compelled him to stick in his entire stack.

+Illmatikk
i'm convinced he had KK or AA in the 3:1 ratio. U can't compare this hand to the Reinkemeier hand as this is cash, other was tournie in which he was down to 12 or 13 BB! His all-in vs Tobias was obv, everyone would do it as he states in the cash game. Bluffing your last 6 or 8 BB is not the same as bluffing half a million in cash. No way he calls 46k pre and another 70(?)k on flop w/ only QJ or JTs. 99% of the time it is most simple explanation: occam's razor.
Hell I ran KK into AA earlier today and it happened in that game just before (which makes us believe scott is super genius using the Antonius vs English business man KK into AA to bluff Coleman).
The reason these guys make mons is they are solid good, not bluffy spewtards. Ppl rarely make those kinda bluffs in .10/.25 zone Bovada; the pros aren't gonna go insane for over half a mill ball!
Yes I know Robl vs Kirk, but that was against Kirk!
Coleman had been playing very snug all night! I couldn't believe how few hands he played.
First time i watched it my mind was blown. Wasn't paying close attention (late night, drinking, in 8th hour of watching) but I remember vividly when it hit me in the face: set of KK vs AA. duh

Uh, I'm not sure who you're talking to at this point.

When does this air?

Did anyone see the hole cards on the broadcast? I thought they were going to show them on tv with hole cards.

Highly doubt Coleman had AA. If so was a terrible fold. Results?

yeah, I'm sure you're a much better player than Daniel Coleman and would have snapped off that 350k, ez game

I noticed that poker central started uploading some hands to youtube. I haven't seen this one on their page. Has it aired yet?

ftr, I think it's a call with AA.

On Poker Central's Youtube channel they have a bunch of videos from big hands from day 2 of the cash game, but they are missing this one hand!!

It was probably the biggest and most interesting hand I am wondering if they are saving the best to keep people waiting?

Trouble With Bullets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWuLntBw6M8

Enjoy, finally posted on youtube!

THANK YOU