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Shove river or check back? Shove river or check back?

08-13-2016 , 11:58 AM
888 Poker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 182.5 BB (VPIP: 17.24, PFR: 8.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 88)
SB: 64 BB (VPIP: 26.03, PFR: 9.59, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 74)
BB: 168 BB (VPIP: 18.32, PFR: 10.99, 3Bet Preflop: 1.67, Hands: 192)
UTG: 59 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 8)
UTG+1: 119.5 BB (VPIP: 15.79, PFR: 8.77, 3Bet Preflop: 3.28, Hands: 172)
Hero (MP): 101 BB
MP+1: 167.5 BB (VPIP: 17.24, PFR: 5.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 88)
CO: 209.5 BB (VPIP: 18.06, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 72)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 2 BB

Did not see UTG had limped before raising or I would have made it 4bb pre.

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) J 8 K
UTG checks, Hero bets 6.5 BB, UTG calls 6.5 BB

Turn: (20.5 BB, 2 players) 6
UTG checks, Hero bets 17 BB, UTG calls 17 BB

River: (54.5 BB, 2 players) 4
UTG checks, Hero bets 32.5 BB, UTG calls 32.5 BB and is all-in

Is river shove too thin?

Spoiler:
UTG shows J Q (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 16%, Flop 23%, Turn 11%)
Hero shows A A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 84%, Flop 77%, Turn 89%)
Hero wins 112.5 BB

Obviously it worked out this time since it turned out Villain was a calling station but against a 2NL reg is this possibly a check back?
Shove river or check back? Quote
08-13-2016 , 02:29 PM
Definitely very thin because there are so many missed draws in his range, very few worse hands that will call, and a handful that have you beat.
Shove river or check back? Quote
08-13-2016 , 08:03 PM
I think it's safe to jam river, he'll have a lot of bluffcatchers and we would have heard from 2 pair or better by now. If you ever want to shove this spot on a bluff, you need some thin value hands to balance your range with and AA fits the bill pretty well.
Shove river or check back? Quote
08-13-2016 , 08:14 PM
Villain limped utg, how many bluff catchers could he have there?
Shove river or check back? Quote
08-14-2016 , 04:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Maul
Villain limped utg, how many bluff catchers could he have there?
Obviously 30 combinations of TP and 2nd pair hands.

[KQs,KTs,QJs,JTs,KQo,QJo]

More if this is a shortstack who only limps, he could have up to 36 combinations including AJs/AJo, which I would entirely expect a passive shortstacker to limp.

More than enough to justify a 2/3rd pot river bet to put him all in.
Shove river or check back? Quote
08-14-2016 , 05:44 AM
Seems fine, I think villain would shove a strong hand himself on the river (scared of you checking back, but also as there are only 32bb left in a pot of 54...)

I think you get called often enough by a K or any other pair he has been calling down with so far. Missed draws will fold (which allows you to hide your hand ) and if he has KJ or a set... good for him I guess.
Shove river or check back? Quote
08-16-2016 , 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WinZip4Lyfe
I think it's safe to jam river, he'll have a lot of bluffcatchers and we would have heard from 2 pair or better by now. If you ever want to shove this spot on a bluff, you need some thin value hands to balance your range with and AA fits the bill pretty well.
+1
Shove river or check back? Quote
08-17-2016 , 06:08 AM
Oh, btw... bet more pre
Shove river or check back? Quote
08-17-2016 , 06:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WinZip4Lyfe
I think it's safe to jam river, he'll have a lot of bluffcatchers and we would have heard from 2 pair or better by now. If you ever want to shove this spot on a bluff, you need some thin value hands to balance your range with and AA fits the bill pretty well.
Do we need to balance on NL2 vs. 60 BB Fish?
Bet / bet / bet, thats it.
I donīt want to have a balanced range in that spot because i donīt want to bluff in that spot vs that type of opponent.
Shove river or check back? Quote
08-17-2016 , 07:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheos
I donīt want to have a balanced range in that spot because i donīt want to bluff in that spot vs that type of opponent.
+1. I think being balanced is overrated in this situation as river showdowns don't happen frequently enough for opponents to notice tendencies.
Shove river or check back? Quote
08-18-2016 , 01:19 PM
Yep its value time and the all in is just 2/3 pot size. Anything else respects a random 2nl fish too much.
Shove river or check back? Quote

      
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