[MICRO] Should I Bluff on this River? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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[MICRO] Should I Bluff on this River?

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05-03-2024 , 09:30 AM

Kenji

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 355

GG Poker - $0.05 Ante $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 207 BB
MP+2: 200 BB
CO: 196.4 BB
BTN: 200 BB
Hero (SB): 200 BB
BB: 282.8 BB
UTG: 311.4 BB
UTG+1: 245.8 BB
MP: 376 BB

9 players post ante of 0.4 BB, Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, MP+2 posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 6 BB) Hero has Q

fold, fold, MP calls 1 BB, MP+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.6 BB, fold, MP calls 2 BB

Flop: (14.6 BB, 3 players) J

Hero checks, MP checks, MP+1 bets 5.2 BB, Hero calls 5.2 BB, MP calls 5.2 BB

Turn: (30.2 BB, 3 players) T

Hero checks, MP checks, MP+1 checks

River: (30.2 BB, 3 players) J

Hero ?

I am near the bottom of my range (no showdownvalue) and block some Jx Tx combos. I can get folds from Overpairs, Str8s and Flushs. Should I bluff this river and if yes, with what sizing?

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05-03-2024 , 10:11 AM

Dante Alighieri

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 200

If I would bluff, I would bluff using the same amount as I'd value bet with Jx. Around pot size.

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05-04-2024 , 03:29 AM

Kenji

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 355

I tried a bit with flopzilla and, assuming that both players fold straights-, I come up with an approximate fold probability of 0.7 x 0.5 = 0.35. Given that my sizing should be around half pot.

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05-04-2024 , 04:25 AM

DSA Stephen

adept

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 1,001

I think 3bet pre is slightly higher EV than call but believe that both will be winning; if you are not well studied in multi way pots I would much prefer to try and get this heads up.

Flop I like; it's tempting to raise but when most of our EV comes from the rec; the EV of call probably goes way up.

Being that most recs are going to call far too wide on the river and not over fold; I will adjust my strategy to just betting a linear range on the river and not worry about betting polar. We don't need bluffs here; just give up.

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05-08-2024 , 09:15 AM

adryyy10

stranger

Join Date: May 2024 Posts: 8

I think you played the hand well. I am not bluffing river.

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