Anyone just call turn? I was hoping to fold out AK and if he had KJ/J9s I'd get bluffed on a ton of rivers anyways.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
HERO ($98.50) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 24.3% | AGG: 37.3% | Flop Agg: 44% | Turn Agg: 33.4% | River Agg: 36% | 3-Bet: 11.5% | 4-Bet: 14.9% | Hands: 206318]
SB ($101.16) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 22.7% | AGG: 21.1% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 28.6% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 15.8% | Fold to 3-Bet: 33.3% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 47]
BB ($103.98) [VPIP: 30.2% | PFR: 28.3% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 55]
UTG ($100) [VPIP: 23.4% | PFR: 20.8% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 77]
HJ ($137.64) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 42.9% | Hands: 26]
CO ($103.68) [VPIP: 30.8% | PFR: 23.1% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 26]

Dealt to Hero: A J

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $2.50, SB Raises To $12.50, BB Folds, HERO Calls $10

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.31 effective]
Flop ($26): 3 7 Q
SB Bets $8.35 (Rem. Stack: $80.31), HERO Calls $8.35 (Rem. Stack: $77.65)

Turn ($42.70): 3 7 Q T
SB Bets $30.43 (Rem. Stack: $49.88), HERO Raises To $77.65 (allin)

OTT we have some hands that benefit from protection like QT no club, 77 no club, TT no club etc that want to jam. To balance this range we need some bluff and AJcc looks like a very nice combo to do it. If you get called by KQ you have also A as an out.

Jamming turn for me is a very good play also because when we have exactly AJ we are blocking most of Villan check folding range. I would prefer calling turn with a hand like 56cc and bluffing if river miss and Villan check

I would just call only because of the size of the bet and size of pot I dont think hes ever folding to your raise here.

In gtow its 5bb mistake to jam. Most of the hands that you fold out are hands that you crush like KJ or weaker fd, so you would prefer to jam lower kicker Ax fd

yeah but I get owned OTR when I blank out because all those hands jam that I'm beating. AK bluffs river a lot too so I can't just call it off.

but you win more when you hit

Yeah that's true. I'm really surprised it was a -5bb mistake to ship, that's a lot.

I have it as a 3bb mistake but yeah that's still way more than I thought.



But A5cc/A4cc ships it. That's interesting. Hands like KJcc/J9cc call it off so having the Jack of isn't good.

Cool spot.

I solved the spot too, after solving it (idk if I made some mistake, nl50 rake and complex solution) but SB is supposed to check 40% of his range OTF. When Villan bet 25% I am thinking that he is range betting this board.



If villan is range betting this board I like jamming even more tbh. The point of jamming A4cc and A5cc actually does make sense, in this way we block less fold OTT

I had (and still have to some extent) similar leak of jamming ip good draws, but preety much all those spots are betwean 1-5BB punts in solver, maybe you can jam here as an exploit against people who 3bet too much and overbarrel, but it supposed to be very, very rare in real games, and people misplay so many rivers that I would rather expect all those jams to be even bigger losers than those 1-5bb
In my A game i just jam here sets against fish, and just call all continuing range against good players

I have the same for my solve. Cbet at 60%. frequency so I'm assuming range as well.

Players actually over cbet and over double barrel in this spot

General rule of thumb is you don't wanna bluff raise with hands that could call and dominate a lot more hands in the call than in the raise line

I played around with some solves in GTO+, and if your premises that villain both over-barrels turn and just pure folds AK to a jam are correct, then jamming is just about equal in EV to calling with AcJc. In most scenarios though, solver much prefers to jam bare AcXc/9c8c (and sometimes KcJc), and pure call anything else that's pair+FD or gutshot+FD

I think calling is just the better overall play though, because I don't know if there's actually a relevant scenario where jamming yields greater EV than calling. Best outcome is probably just that it's roughly the same in EV, but even that's dependent upon those two assumptions always being true. I think it makes sense to just pure call your highest equity clubs, and jam the lowest equity ones based on what aner0 is saying

I think that the freq with which villain folds AK OTT is definitely relevant, because people folding equity is great, but I don't think the possibility of villain bluffing us off AJ when they have KJ or J9s really is relevant. We have bluffcatchers to deal with bluffs. If villain is blasting both KJ and J9s OTR at full freq, we can just call more with bluffcatchers

Yes thank you for reminding me I want to nodelock ranging flop and over barreling turn and see how AJcc fares.

Results as well.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
HERO ($98.50) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 24.3% | AGG: 37.4% | Flop Agg: 44% | Turn Agg: 33.4% | River Agg: 36% | 3-Bet: 11.6% | 4-Bet: 14.9% | Hands: 207071]
SB ($101.16) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 22.7% | AGG: 21.1% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 28.6% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 15.8% | Fold to 3-Bet: 33.3% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 47]
BB ($103.98) [VPIP: 30.2% | PFR: 28.3% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 55]
UTG ($100) [VPIP: 23.4% | PFR: 20.8% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 77]
HJ ($137.64) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 42.9% | Hands: 26]
CO ($103.68) [VPIP: 30.8% | PFR: 23.1% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 26]

Dealt to Hero: A J

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $2.50, SB Raises To $12.50, BB Folds, HERO Calls $10

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.31 effective]
Flop ($26): 3 7 Q
SB Bets $8.35 (Rem. Stack: $80.31), HERO Calls $8.35 (Rem. Stack: $77.65)

Turn ($42.70): 3 7 Q T
SB Bets $30.43 (Rem. Stack: $49.88), HERO Raises To $77.65 (allin), SB Calls $47.22 (Rem. Stack: $2.66)

River ($198): 3 7 Q T T



Okay I ran it in GTO+ and it becomes less of a punt like whitemares said. What is interesting is how much of an EV difference the lower kicker FD's have like A5cc/A4cc. Those become insta ships OTT.

It's also possible, that if you call turn, villain check river, and then jam, you win this hand

Don't think I want to do that.

Our hand seems too good to be jamming. Surprised to see Ac5c jam, feel like we want to flush over flush villain

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You need to balance your value range that's why there are some jams with those hands

When river miss it's important to understand which missed FD you wanna jam to not overbluff, AJcc blocks to many x/f, the lowers one are the best candidate